Success Metrics / North Star

Success Metrics / North Star

Desired Outcome

Produce one deliverable:

1. Success metrics — reports/00_core/success-metrics.md (NSM- IDs):
   • One North Star Metric — a leading indicator of revenue/retention that expresses customer-received value (never raw revenue, never a vanity metric)
   • 3–5 input metrics that the team can move directly and that drive the NSM
   • A mapping onto AARRR or HEART (one lens, not both mechanically)
   • For each metric: definition, measurement method/source, target value, and a guardrail counter-metric (TBD where no credible source exists)

These NSM- IDs become the anchor for RICE Impact in define-scope/define-features and for the value hypotheses in design-revenue.

Invocation

/product:define-success-metrics [--auto] [--lang=ja|en]

Argument/Flag	Required	Description
--auto	Optional	Skip elicitation; generate from the vision only. Unknowns → TBD
--lang	Optional	Override output language

Decision Criteria

• The North Star leads revenue — it is not revenue. If improving the metric would not reliably pull future revenue/retention up, it is the wrong metric.
• Express value in the customer's terms and only choose metrics the team can actually move.
• Every metric needs a measurement method. Targets without a credible source are TBD, never invented.
• Stop condition: exactly one North Star, 3–5 input metrics, a guardrail per optimized metric, and each metric has a definition + measurement method.

Prerequisites

Input	Required/Recommended	Source	If missing/empty
reports/00_core/vision-mission-value.md	Required	/product:define-vision	block with a message — metrics need the vision
work/pipeline-progress.json	Recommended	/product:init-output	ask for output_language

Process

1. Read context — vision, work/context.md, work/traceability.json.
2. Define winning — translate the vision's "definition of success" into a single North Star.
3. Decompose — derive 3–5 input metrics (e.g. breadth × depth × frequency × efficiency); each maps to a product lever.
4. Map — place the NSM and inputs on AARRR or HEART to expose which stage the strategy bets on. Apply @rules/product/success-metrics.md.
5. Targets & guardrails — set target values (or TBD) and a counter-metric per optimized metric; record measurement method/source.
6. Append traceability — add NSM- nodes to work/traceability.json with Upstream VIS- references.
7. Record — write the file; append decisions to work/context.md; log TBDs to Open Questions.

Output

reports/00_core/success-metrics.md, with an NSM- ID table including an Upstream column.

Reference Materials

Resource	Purpose
@rules/product/success-metrics.md	North Star, input metrics, AARRR/HEART, targets & guardrails

Related Skills

Skill	Relationship
/product:define-vision	Upstream — provides the vision the NSM measures
/product:define-scope	Downstream — RICE Impact references NSM- IDs
/product:design-revenue	Downstream — value hypotheses move NSM- metrics
/product:validate-assumptions	Downstream — metric targets become assumptions to test
/product:adapt-change	Re-runs this skill when the vision changes