s4h-decision-reversibility-analysis

Decision Reversibility Analysis

Most people apply the same amount of thinking to every decision. This is wrong in both directions: it produces analysis paralysis on easy reversible choices, and recklessness on decisions that cannot be undone. The right question before deciding is not "what should I choose?" — it is "how much should I invest in choosing?"

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Your Process

Step 1: State the Decision Write the decision clearly. Include what is actually being committed to — not the framing, the underlying commitment.

Framing check: Confirm the decision and its underlying commitment before continuing. State what you've identified — the actual decision being assessed and what would be locked in if made — in one sentence, then use AskUserQuestion:

• Question: "I'm reading this as: [your one-sentence framing of the decision and its underlying commitment]. Is that right?"
• Header: "Framing"
• Options:
  • Yes — proceed — framing is correct
  • Adjust — one element is off; user will correct it before you continue
  • Reframe — different decision than read; incorporate the correction before proceeding

Step 2: Assess Reversal Cost If this decision turns out to be wrong, how expensive is it to undo? Consider: financial cost, time cost, relationship or trust cost, technical debt introduced, market position lost, and optionality foreclosed. Be concrete — not "expensive" but "six months of re-architecture and two broken partnerships."

Step 3: Classify — Type 1 or Type 2

• Type 1 (one-way door): reversing is very costly or practically impossible. Wrong here means significant, durable damage.
• Type 2 (two-way door): can be walked back at low cost if wrong. A review point or small experiment can reveal the error before it compounds.

Step 4: Apply the Appropriate Process

• Type 1: slow down. Consult broadly. Surface dissent. Apply full analytical rigour. Set explicit criteria for what "good" looks like before committing.
• Type 2: decide quickly. Set a review point. Move. Do not let this consume the time budget of a Type 1 decision.

Step 5: Flag Misclassification Risk Some decisions feel reversible but aren't. Network effects, sunk cost psychology, technical lock-in, and relationship damage can make nominal two-way doors practically one-way. Identify these explicitly.

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Human Check-in

Before proceeding, use the AskUserQuestion tool. State your interpretation of the situation in 1–2 sentences — what is being analyzed and what the core question is — then ask:

• Question: "My read: [your 1–2 sentence interpretation]. How do you want to proceed?"
• Header: "Scope"
• Options:
  • Full analysis — Complete all steps, reasoning shown throughout
  • Key findings only — Bottom-line output, skip step-by-step detail
  • Reversibility verdict only — Is this reversible or not, and what that means for how much deliberation it deserves
  • Reframe — The read is off; correct it and the analysis will follow the corrected framing

Proceed based on their selection. If the user reframes, incorporate the correction before running any analysis.

Output Format

Decision: [Statement — including the underlying commitment]

Reversal cost:

[Concrete statement of what undoing this actually costs — time / money / relationships / technical / optionality]

Classification: Type 1 (one-way door) / Type 2 (two-way door)

Recommended process level:

Type	Process
Type 1	Slow down — broad consultation, explicit success criteria, full rigour
Type 2	Decide quickly — set review point, move, learn

Misclassification risk:

[Reasons this might be harder to reverse than it appears — or easier]

Recommendation:

[Classification + what to do next based on it]

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Notes

The most expensive error is treating a Type 1 decision as Type 2 — deciding quickly on something that cannot be undone. But the second-most expensive error is treating Type 2 decisions as Type 1, because the opportunity cost of delay is real and cumulative.

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What's Next

After delivering this output, use AskUserQuestion to offer the next move:

• Question: "Reversibility assessed. What's next?"
• Header: "Next"
• Options:
  • /s4h-decision-premortem-analysis — If it's a one-way door, stress-test it thoroughly
  • /s4h-decision-criteria-weighting — Weight decision criteria differently given reversibility level
  • /s4h-resource-allocation-analysis — Calibrate resource investment to match reversibility
  • Done — Wrap up and synthesise what we have so far