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Prioritizes initiatives (features, ventures, hiring decisions, capital allocations) using Cost of Delay divided by Duration (CD3). Replaces HiPPO (Highest Paid Person's Opinion) and gut-feel prioritization with economic prioritization. Based on Lean Enterprise cap. 8. Use when the user asks "cost of delay", "CD3", "prioritization framework", "which feature first", "weighted shortest job first", "WSJF", "priorizar iniciativas", "/cost-of-delay-cd3", or has a backlog of initiatives and needs to decide what to work on first.
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Prioriza iniciativas (features, ventures, hiring, capital) usando **Cost of Delay
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Prioriza iniciativas (features, ventures, hiring, capital) usando Cost of Delay divided by Duration (CD3). Reemplaza HiPPO y gut-feel con priorización económica defendible.
Basado en Lean Enterprise cap. 8 (adaptado de Don Reinertsen's Principles of Product Development Flow).
Español. Financial terms en "español (English)" primera vez.
./portfolio/{venture-o-studio-name}/prioritization/
├── backlog-cd3-YYYY-MM-DD.md # Snapshot de priorización
└── cd3-calculations.md # Cálculos detallados por item
CD3 = Cost of Delay ($ per unit time) / Duration (time to deliver)
Mayor CD3 = más prioritario (entrega valor económico por unidad de tiempo más rápidamente).
| Feature | Cost of Delay | Duration | CD3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | $10k/week | 4 weeks | $2,500 |
| B | $5k/week | 1 week | $5,000 |
| C | $20k/week | 12 weeks | $1,667 |
Ranking por CD3: B (5,000) > A (2,500) > C (1,667)
Aunque C tiene el COD más alto ($20k/week), su duration es larga, así que otros features generan más valor total en ese tiempo.
1. Revenue delay: $X/week que NO ganamos por no tener el feature.
2. Cost savings delay: $X/week que estamos gastando por no optimizar.
3. Risk delay: $X/week en expected losses de un riesgo.
4. Competitive delay: valor de entrar al mercado primero / no quedarse atrás.
5. Strategic option delay: valor de keep future options open.
Rara vez se puede cuantificar exacto. Usar rango 3-point (low / likely / high):
CD_low = $X/week (conservative)
CD_likely = $Y/week (expected)
CD_high = $Z/week (optimistic)
Rankear por likely, stress test con low/high.
En la práctica, CD sigue distribución power law: unos pocos items tienen CD 10-100x mayor que la mayoría. Esto significa:
Regla práctica: después de calcular CD3 para todos los items, los top 20% usualmente representan 80%+ del valor. Focus ahí.
CD-1: "Listá los items a priorizar. Pueden ser:
Máximo 20 items por round — más diluye la señal."
CD-2: "Para cada item, estimar duration:
Si duration es incierto, usar 3-point estimate (low/likely/high)."
CD-3: "Para cada item, identificar qué tipo de CD aplica y estimar:
Tipo 1 — Revenue delay:
Tipo 2 — Cost savings delay:
Tipo 3 — Risk delay:
Tipo 4 — Competitive delay:
Tipo 5 — Strategic option:
Si múltiples tipos aplican, sumarlos."
CD-4: "Para cada item: CD3 = Total Cost of Delay / Duration
Rankear descendente por CD3."
CD-5: "Revisar el top 5 del ranking:
Ajustar si hay anomalías."
CD-6: "Graficar CD3 descendente. Usualmente hay un 'knee' donde los top items dominan.
Generar ./portfolio/{name}/prioritization/backlog-cd3-YYYY-MM-DD.md:
# Backlog priorizado por CD3 — YYYY-MM-DD
**Context**: [cual pod / team / project]
**Método**: Cost of Delay / Duration (CD3)
## Top items (priorizar primero)
| Rank | Item | CD3 | COD ($/week) | Duration | Type COD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | [name] | $X | $Y | Z weeks | [revenue/cost/risk/competitive/strategic] |
| 2 | | | | | |
| 3 | | | | | |
| 4 | | | | | |
| 5 | | | | | |
## Full ranking
[Complete table con todos los items]
## Power-law observation
- Top 3 CD3 sum: $X
- Rest of backlog CD3 sum: $Y
- Ratio: top 3 representan X% del valor total
## Rationale por top item
### #1 [item name]
**Cost of Delay breakdown**:
- Revenue delay: $X/week ([details])
- Other types: ...
**Duration estimate**: Y weeks
- Why: [reasoning]
- Confidence: [high / medium / low]
**CD3**: $X/week
**Recommendation**: Start immediately. Block dev capacity for next Y weeks.
### #2 [item name]
[...]
## Decisions
- Top 3 committed to this quarter: [names]
- Backlog for re-evaluation next Q: [count]
- Items rejected (low CD3): [names + reason]
## Next re-prioritization
Cada trimestre re-calcular CD3 — CODs cambian con el mercado, durations con capacity.
Próxima fecha: YYYY-MM-DD
Lean Enterprise documenta Maersk's experiencia:
Take-away: la disciplina del método genera insights que HiPPO nunca ve.
innovation-scorecard: actions identified en scorecard se priorizan vía CD3three-horizons: CD3 aplicado dentro de cada horizon (no mezclar items H1 y H3 en mismo ranking)explore-exploit: CD3 más confiable en Exploit (datos sólidos); en Explore usar como guidelineimprovement-kata: el siguiente step del kata puede priorizarse vía CD3