trend-analysis

Trend Analysis

Overview

Trend analysis identifies patterns of change over time to anticipate future market conditions. This skill covers methodologies for discovering, validating, and projecting trends at macro and micro levels.

Required Frameworks

Framework	Output Section	Required	Condition
Macro Trends Table	Macro Trends	yes	—
Micro Trends Table	Micro Trends	yes	—
Emerging Signals	Emerging Signals	yes	—
Transitional Scenario Graph	Transitional Scenario Graph	yes	—
Terminal Scenarios	Terminal Scenarios	yes	—
Monitoring Indicators	Monitoring Indicators	yes	—

Trend Categories

Macro Trends (3-10+ years)

Large-scale shifts affecting multiple industries. Always classify each macro trend into one of these five categories and label it explicitly:

• Economic: Interest rates, inflation, employment, trade flows, pricing pressure
• Technological: AI, blockchain, quantum computing, automation, platform shifts
• Social: Demographics, values, behaviors, workforce changes, cultural shifts
• Environmental: Climate, sustainability, resources, regulatory carbon targets
• Political: Regulation, trade policy, governance, geopolitical risk

When presenting macro trends, include the category label (e.g., "Technological: AI-driven precision agriculture") so the classification is visible in the output.

Micro Trends (1-3 years)

Industry or segment-specific patterns:

• Feature adoption curves
• Pricing model shifts
• Channel preferences
• Buying behavior changes
• Competitive dynamics

Emerging Signals (< 1 year)

Early indicators of potential trends:

• Startup activity
• Patent filings
• Research papers
• Early adopter behavior
• Influencer attention

For each emerging signal, always state what it may indicate or suggest using language such as "This signal suggests...", "This may indicate...", "The implication is...", or "This points to...". Every signal must be paired with its potential implication.

Three-Valued Trend Logic

Load and apply the trend indicator definitions from protocols/TREND-INDICATORS.md. When explaining the system, always introduce all three values (INC, DEC, CONST) together in a single summary before elaborating on each.

Trend Identification Process

Step 1: Signal Gathering

Collect data points from:

• Industry reports and analyses
• News and publications
• Patent databases
• Job posting trends
• Search interest (Google Trends)
• Social media discussions
• Conference topics
• Funding announcements

Step 2: Pattern Recognition

Look for:

• Consistent direction over 3+ time periods
• Acceleration/deceleration in rate of change
• Cross-industry convergence
• Discontinuities and inflection points

Step 3: Validation

Confirm trends through:

• Multiple independent sources
• Expert opinions
• Historical analogies
• Quantitative data where available

Step 4: Classification

Assign trend direction:

• Determine INC/DEC/CONST
• Note confidence level
• Document supporting evidence

Step 5: Projection

Extend trends forward considering:

• Historical trajectory
• Accelerating/decelerating forces
• Potential disruptions
• Saturation points

Transitional Scenario Graphs

Create Mermaid state diagrams showing possible futures:

stateDiagram-v2
    [*] --> CurrentState

    CurrentState --> GrowthPath: INC indicators strong
    CurrentState --> StablePath: CONST indicators
    CurrentState --> DeclinePath: DEC indicators

    GrowthPath --> AcceleratingGrowth: Network effects kick in
    GrowthPath --> DeceleratingGrowth: Market saturation

    StablePath --> NicheEquilibrium: Specialized use cases
    StablePath --> DisruptionVulnerable: Tech shift pending

    DeclinePath --> ManagedDecline: Harvest strategy
    DeclinePath --> RapidObsolescence: Substitute adoption

Terminal Scenarios

Identify equilibrium states where trends stabilize:

• What market structure emerges?
• Which players win/lose?
• What trade-offs must organizations accept?

Trend Quality Assessment

Rate trend confidence:

Confidence	Evidence Required
High	3+ independent sources, quantitative data, expert consensus
Medium	2+ sources, qualitative signals, some disagreement
Low	Single source, early signals, speculative

Output Structure

## Trend Analysis Summary

### Macro Trends
| Category | Trend | Direction | Confidence | Timeframe |
|----------|-------|-----------|------------|-----------|
| Economic/Technological/Social/Environmental/Political | [Name] | INC/DEC/CONST | High/Med/Low | X years |

### Micro Trends
| Trend | Direction | Confidence | Timeframe |
|-------|-----------|------------|-----------|
| [Name] | INC/DEC/CONST | High/Med/Low | X months |

### Emerging Signals
- [Signal 1]: This suggests/indicates [potential implication]
- [Signal 2]: This suggests/indicates [potential implication]

## Transitional Scenario Graph
[Mermaid diagram]

## Terminal Scenarios
1. **[Scenario Name]**: [Description and conditions]
2. **[Scenario Name]**: [Description and conditions]

## Implications
- [Implication 1]
- [Implication 2]

## Monitoring Indicators
- [Metric to track]
- [Metric to track]

Best Practices

• Multiple timeframes: Analyze short, medium, and long-term
• Cross-validate: Use diverse sources and methods
• Update regularly: Trends can shift; review quarterly
• Note uncertainty: Distinguish confidence levels clearly
• Watch for reversals: Monitor for trend changes
• Consider second-order effects: What does the trend cause?

Common Pitfalls

• Confirmation bias (seeing trends you expect)
• Recency bias (overweighting recent data)
• Survivorship bias (only seeing successful trends)
• Extrapolation without limits (trends don't continue forever)
• Ignoring counter-trends (opposing forces)

Additional Resources

For detailed methodologies, see:

• references/trend-signals.md - Signal identification techniques
• references/scenario-planning.md - Scenario development methods
• examples/trend-report.md - Sample trend analysis

Orchestration Hints

Confidence tiers (universal scale):

• High: 3+ independent, recent (<12mo) sources that converge
• Medium: 2 sources OR sources >12mo old OR indirect evidence
• Low: Single source, inference, or extrapolation

Dimension-specific confidence criteria below REFINE (not replace) these universal definitions.

• Cross-reference dimensions: tech (adoption curves, technology maturity), regulatory (regulatory shifts impacting trends)
• Alert triggers:
  • Trend reversal detected (INC→DEC or DEC→INC)
  • Emerging trend with potential to reshape market within 2 years
  • Macro trend contradiction between sources
• Confidence rules:
  • High: 3+ independent signals confirm trend direction
  • Medium: 2 signals or strong single indicator with historical precedent
  • Low: Single signal or conflicting indicators
• Conflict detection:
  • Trend projections vs sizing dimension's growth rates
  • Technology adoption curves vs tech dimension's TRL assessments
  • Regulatory trend impacts vs regulatory dimension's timeline estimates