mb-bet

Bet

Business bets are hub nodes in bets/. They connect decisions, research, campaigns, logs, documents, and outcomes without replacing any of them.

A bet is not an offer. An offer is a durable thing the business sells. A bet is a time-boxed operating hypothesis with appetite, target, deadline, evidence, and a verdict. A successful bet may graduate into an offer, workflow, content pillar, campaign, or decision; a failed bet should be closed with learning.

Use /mb-bet for five modes:

• new - open a bet with hypothesis, appetite, metric, target, deadline, and links.
• update - add progress and link new evidence.
• close - record result, verdict, learning, and follow-up links.
• list - summarize active bets and deadlines.
• narrate - draft public-safe site, community, or social copy from repo truth.

Do not publish automatically. Narration drafts are files or message drafts only.

Repo Rules

Work from the business repo. If unsure, confirm that core/, research/, decisions/, or bets/ exists in the current directory. If not, ask the operator to start Claude from the business repo or run /mb-start.

Before writing, run:

mb status --json

Use the result to spot active bets and repo readiness. After writing or editing bet files, run:

mb validate --cross-refs

If validation warns about missing bidirectional bet links, repair the linked file frontmatter when it is clearly in scope.

Bet Frontmatter

Every bet file lives at bets/YYYY-MM-DD-slug.md and uses this frontmatter:

---
status: open
opened: YYYY-MM-DD
deadline: YYYY-MM-DD
appetite: "2 weeks"
hypothesis: "If we do X for Y, Z will happen because..."
metric: "qualified calls booked"
target: "10 qualified calls by deadline"
result: ""
linked_decisions: []
linked_research: []
linked_campaigns: []
linked_outcomes: []
public: false
channels: []
tags: []
---

Allowed statuses: open, paused, closed, canceled.

Use repo-relative paths in link fields:

• linked_decisions: decisions/*.md
• linked_research: research/*.md
• linked_campaigns: campaigns/*/campaign.md or campaign artifacts
• linked_outcomes: log/*.md, documents/*.md, or outcome artifacts

When linking an existing file to a bet, add the reverse link too:

linked_bets:
  - bets/YYYY-MM-DD-slug.md

Mode: new

Use when the operator says they want to try, launch, test, prove, or make a bet.

1. Ask only for missing essentials: hypothesis, appetite, deadline, metric, target, public/private posture, channels, and any known linked files.
2. Create bets/YYYY-MM-DD-slug.md.
3. Add reverse linked_bets frontmatter to linked decisions, research, campaigns, and outcome files when those files already exist and the edit is clearly safe.
4. End with the file path, deadline, target, and next action.

Body template:

# Bet Title

## Why This Bet

[The operating tension or opportunity.]

## Hypothesis

[Same claim as frontmatter, with context.]

## Work Plan

- [ ] [Concrete action]

## Evidence Log

- YYYY-MM-DD - Bet opened.

## Result

Open.

## Narration Notes

[Public-safe angles, claims to avoid, proof needed before sharing.]

Mode: update

Use when work happened but the bet is not finished.

1. Read the bet and linked files.
2. Append a dated Evidence Log entry.
3. Update linked_decisions, linked_research, linked_campaigns, or linked_outcomes if new files now matter.
4. Keep result blank unless there is a real result.
5. Repair reverse linked_bets fields on newly linked files.

Mode: close

Use when the deadline passed, the target is hit, or the operator decides to stop.

1. Ask for the actual result if repo evidence is not enough.
2. Set status: closed or status: canceled.
3. Fill result with the measured outcome and verdict.
4. Add a ## Learning section or update it if present.
5. Link outcome files and add reverse linked_bets fields.
6. Suggest follow-up decisions or issues only when the next step is concrete.

Mode: list

Summarize active bets from mb status --json and direct file reads:

• deadline
• status
• target
• metric
• public/private posture
• blocked or overdue signals

Keep it short. End with the next bet that needs attention.

Mode: narrate

Draft public-safe narration from the bet and linked repo truth. Do not invent results, metrics, claims, testimonials, or publishing channels.

Ask the operator which surface if unclear:

1. site
2. community
3. social

Draft format:

# Narration Draft

Surface: [site/community/social]
Source bet: bets/YYYY-MM-DD-slug.md

## Public Angle

[What can be shared safely.]

## Draft

[Post or page copy.]

## Claims To Verify

- [Any metric, result, or proof that needs source confirmation.]

## Source Links

- [repo-relative paths read]

If the bet has public: false, ask before drafting public copy. Offer a private internal retrospective instead.

Exit

Tell the operator what changed, which files were linked, whether validation passed, and the exact next command:

mb status