prd-v09-launch-metrics

Launch Metrics

Position in workflow: v0.9 GTM Strategy → v0.9 Launch Metrics → v0.9 Feedback Loop Setup

Execution Mode

Default is standard. See .claude/rules/08-skill-execution-modes.md for selection logic.

Mode	What this skill produces
quick	3 KPIs (one each for Reach/Acquisition/Activation); Day 7 targets; basic dashboard
standard	Full funnel (Reach → Referral); Day 1/7/30 targets; dashboards + alerts
deep	Full funnel + tier targets + Day 1/7/30/90 + product-type calibration + cohort analysis

Consumes

This skill requires prior work from v0.3-v0.9:

• KPI-* outcome entries from v0.3 (from v0.3 Outcome Definition) — Baseline KPI- entries define success metrics for the product; launch-specific KPI- entries are calibrated variants
• GTM-* campaign specifications (from v0.9 GTM Strategy) — GTM channels inform launch-specific KPI- tracking (e.g., Product Hunt channel → KPI for PH-originated signups); timeline defines metric collection windows (Day 1, Day 7, Day 30, Day 90)
• BR-* product type (from v0.2 Product Type Classification) — Product type (Clone/Unbundle/Undercut/Slice/Innovation) determines metric targets and benchmarks (Fast Follow = higher activation expected, lower retention)
• CFD-* market benchmarks (from v0.1-v0.2 research) — Competitive analysis and market data inform realistic KPI- targets (e.g., "developer tools average 30-50% activation")
• DEP-* deployment infrastructure (from v0.8 Release Planning) — Deployment baselines from staging inform KPI- thresholds (e.g., error rate baseline → activation threshold)
• MON-* monitoring setup (from v0.8 Monitoring Setup) — Infrastructure metrics (latency, error rate) inform KPI- dashboards and alert conditions during launch

This skill assumes GTM- entries are complete and tracking infrastructure is configured.

Produces

This skill creates/updates:

• KPI-* launch-specific entries (launch metrics with targets and thresholds) — Funnel metrics (Reach → Acquisition → Activation → Retention → Revenue → Referral) with Day 1/7/30/90 targets, action thresholds (Red/Yellow/Green), and channel attribution
• Launch dashboard specification — Visual layout and refresh rate for real-time launch monitoring; links KPI- to MON- infrastructure
• Metric tracking schema — Event definitions and tracking setup for conversion funnel

All KPI- entries for launch are measurement specifications, not confidence-based. They are:

• Actionable (Red/Yellow/Green thresholds trigger specific responses)
• Calibrated (targets account for product type and market benchmarks from CFD-)
• Traceable (each KPI- links to GTM- channels and v0.3 baseline KPI-XX)
• Measurable (specific event tracking, data sources, calculation formulas)
• Time-bound (explicit timeframes: Day 1, Week 1, Month 1)

Example KPI- entries:

KPI-101: Website Visitors (Launch Week)
Tier: Tier 3 (Leading)
Category: Reach
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Growth Team

Definition: Unique visitors to marketing website from all GTM- channels
Unit: count
Source: Google Analytics 4 / Plausible

Targets:
  Day 1: 5,000 (from GTM-002 PH expectations + GTM-007 paid channel)
  Day 7: 25,000 (cumulative from all GTM channels)
  Day 30: 50,000 (post-launch momentum)
  Day 90: 100,000

Evidence: CFD-025 (competitor benchmarks show 5-10% market awareness for Fast Follow), CFD-008 (our GTM reach model projects this based on channel scale)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow — higher reach expected due to known category

Tracking:
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Reach panel
  Alert: <1,000 on Day 1 (channel distribution problem)

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <2,500 Day 7 (channel underperformance)
  Yellow: <20,000 Day 7 (80% of target)
  Green: >25,000 Day 7

GTM Connection: GTM-002 (Product Hunt), GTM-007 (Website), GTM-008 (Paid ads), GTM-010 (Email)
v0.3 KPI Link: N/A (launch-specific)

---

KPI-102: Trial Signups
Tier: Tier 2 (Conversion)
Category: Acquisition
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: Completed signup flow (email verified, profile created)
Unit: count
Source: Application database + Mixpanel

Targets:
  Day 1: 500 (5-10% conversion from reach)
  Day 7: 2,000 (extrapolated from Day 1 + momentum)
  Day 30: 5,000 (post-launch plateau)
  Day 90: 15,000 (month 3 growth)

Evidence: CFD-030 (developer SaaS benchmarks show 5-10% landing-to-signup), CFD-031 (our onboarding tested with 8% conversion)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = 8-10% expected (higher than average because users understand category)

Tracking:
  Event: signup_completed { source, campaign_id, user_segment }
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Acquisition panel
  Alert: Conversion rate <5%

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <100 Day 1 (messaging/channel mismatch — escalate GTM)
  Yellow: <400 Day 1 (funnel friction — investigate landing page)
  Green: >500 Day 1

GTM Connection: GTM-002, GTM-004 (Landing Page), GTM-005 (Email), GTM-008 (Ads)
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-001 (Trial Signups baseline from Outcome Definition)

---

KPI-103: Activation Rate (First Value Achievement)
Tier: Tier 1 (Critical)
Category: Activation
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: % of signups who complete first core action (generate code suggestion) within 24h
Unit: percentage
Source: Mixpanel + Application events

Targets:
  Day 1: 40% (from CFD-035 developer tool benchmarks)
  Day 7: 45% (slight improvement with onboarding refinement)
  Day 30: 50% (post-launch optimizations)
  Day 90: 55% (mature product experience)

Evidence: CFD-035 (activation benchmarks for dev tools: 30-50%), CFD-015 (our UJ-001 usability test showed 45% completed core action)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = higher baseline (users already understand AI coding assists)

Tracking:
  Event: first_value_achieved { user_id, action_type, time_to_value_seconds }
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Activation panel
  Alert: Drops below 30% (onboarding broken)

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <25% (product experience broken — pause marketing, investigate UJ-001)
  Yellow: <35% (friction in onboarding — iterate SCR-001/002)
  Green: >45% (strong PMF signal)

GTM Connection: Quality indicator for all GTM- channels (tells us if messaging matches product)
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-002 (Activation Rate from Outcome Definition)

---

KPI-104: Day 7 Retention
Tier: Tier 1 (Critical)
Category: Retention
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: % of Day 0 signups who return and take an action on Day 7
Unit: percentage
Source: Mixpanel cohort analysis

Targets:
  Day 7: 25% (from CFD-040 B2B SaaS benchmarks)
  Day 30: 20% of original (cohort retention)
  Day 90: 15% of original (monthly cohort)

Evidence: CFD-040 (B2B SaaS D7 retention benchmarks 20-30%), CFD-015 (our beta test: 22% D7 retention with 50 users)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = critical (users can easily switch back to competitors) — retention signal validates PMF

Tracking:
  Event: session_start { user_id, cohort_day }
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Retention panel
  Alert: Day 7 retention <15% (fundamental problem)

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <15% (product-market fit issue — consider pivot in features, messaging)
  Yellow: <20% (value delivery problem — investigate UJ-/feature completeness)
  Green: >30% (strong retention, ready for growth)

GTM Connection: Quality indicator for all GTM- channels
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-003 (Retention Rate from Outcome Definition)

Core Concept: Metrics as North Star

Launch metrics are not vanity numbers—they are decision criteria. Each metric should answer: "Is this working? Should we double down or pivot?" If a metric doesn't inform action, don't track it.

Metric Layers for Launch

Layer	What to Measure	Timeframe
Reach	How many saw us	Day 0-7
Acquisition	How many signed up	Day 0-30
Activation	How many got value	Day 1-14
Retention	How many came back	Week 2-4
Revenue	How many paid	Week 2-8
Referral	How many shared	Week 3+

Execution

1. Review v0.3 Outcome Definition KPIs

   • What KPI- entries exist from v0.3?
   • Which are most relevant for launch?
   • What launch-specific metrics are needed?

2. Define launch-specific metrics

   • Channel performance (per GTM-)
   • Funnel progression
   • Activation milestones
   • Early retention signals

3. Set targets per timeframe

   • Day 1, Day 7, Day 30, Day 90
   • Tie to product type expectations (from v0.2 BR-)

4. Configure tracking infrastructure

   • Analytics platforms
   • Event schemas
   • Dashboard setup

5. Create visibility

   • Daily launch dashboard
   • Weekly metrics review
   • Automated alerts for thresholds

6. Create/Update KPI- entries for launch

KPI- Output Template (Launch Variant)

KPI-XXX: [Launch Metric Name]
Tier: [Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Tier 3]
Category: [Reach | Acquisition | Activation | Retention | Revenue | Referral]
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: [Who monitors this metric]

Definition: [Exact calculation formula]
Unit: [count | percentage | currency | ratio]
Source: [Where data comes from]

Targets:
  Day 1: [target]
  Day 7: [target]
  Day 30: [target]
  Day 90: [target]

Evidence: [CFD-XXX or benchmark that justifies targets]
Product Type Calibration: [How product type affects expectations]

Tracking:
  Event: [analytics event name if applicable]
  Dashboard: [Where to view this metric]
  Alert: [When to get notified]

Action Thresholds:
  Red: [Below this = urgent intervention]
  Yellow: [Below this = investigate]
  Green: [Above this = on track]

GTM Connection: [GTM-XXX channels this measures]
v0.3 KPI Link: [KPI-YYY from Outcome Definition if applicable]

Example KPI- entries:

KPI-101: Website Visitors (Launch Week)
Tier: Tier 3 (Leading)
Category: Reach
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Growth Team

Definition: Unique visitors to marketing site
Unit: count
Source: Google Analytics / Plausible

Targets:
  Day 1: 5,000
  Day 7: 25,000
  Day 30: 50,000
  Day 90: 100,000

Evidence: CFD-025 (competitor launch benchmarks)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = higher baseline expected

Tracking:
  Event: page_view (landing pages)
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Reach panel
  Alert: <1,000 on Day 1

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <2,500 Day 7 (50% of target)
  Yellow: <20,000 Day 7 (80% of target)
  Green: >25,000 Day 7

GTM Connection: GTM-002 (Product Hunt), GTM-007 (Website)
v0.3 KPI Link: N/A (launch-specific)

KPI-102: Trial Signups
Tier: Tier 2 (Conversion)
Category: Acquisition
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: Completed signup flow (email verified)
Unit: count
Source: Application database + Mixpanel

Targets:
  Day 1: 500
  Day 7: 2,000
  Day 30: 5,000
  Day 90: 15,000

Evidence: CFD-030 (industry signup rate benchmarks 5-10%)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = 8-10% expected conversion

Tracking:
  Event: signup_completed
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Acquisition panel
  Alert: Conversion rate <5%

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <100 Day 1 (messaging/channel mismatch)
  Yellow: <400 Day 1 (funnel friction)
  Green: >500 Day 1

GTM Connection: GTM-002, GTM-004 (Landing Page)
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-001 (Trial Signups, general)

KPI-103: Activation Rate (First Value)
Tier: Tier 1 (Critical)
Category: Activation
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: % of signups who complete first value action within 24h
Unit: percentage
Source: Mixpanel + Application events

First Value Action: Complete first [core action - e.g., generate code suggestion]

Targets:
  Day 1: 40%
  Day 7: 45%
  Day 30: 50%
  Day 90: 55%

Evidence: CFD-035 (activation benchmarks for dev tools 30-50%)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = higher baseline (users know the category)

Tracking:
  Event: first_value_achieved
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Activation panel
  Alert: Drops below 30%

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <25% (onboarding broken)
  Yellow: <35% (friction points)
  Green: >45%

GTM Connection: Measures effectiveness of all GTM- channels
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-002 (Activation Rate, general)

KPI-104: Day 7 Retention
Tier: Tier 1 (Critical)
Category: Retention
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: % of Day 0 signups who return on Day 7
Unit: percentage
Source: Mixpanel cohort analysis

Targets:
  Day 7: 25%
  Day 30: 20% (of Day 0)
  Day 90: 15% (of Day 0)

Evidence: CFD-040 (B2B SaaS retention benchmarks)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = retention critical (easy to switch back)

Tracking:
  Event: session_start (Day 7 cohort)
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Retention panel
  Alert: Day 7 retention <15%

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <15% (critical product-market fit issue)
  Yellow: <20% (value delivery problem)
  Green: >30% (strong PMF signal)

GTM Connection: Quality indicator for all GTM- traffic
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-003 (Retention Rate, general)

The Launch Funnel

Track conversion at each stage:

REACH → ACQUISITION → ACTIVATION → RETENTION → REVENUE → REFERRAL
 100%      10%           50%          25%        20%       10%

Stage	Key Metric	Benchmark
Reach → Acquisition	Signup Rate	5-15%
Acquisition → Activation	Activation Rate	30-60%
Activation → Retention	D7 Retention	20-40%
Retention → Revenue	Conversion Rate	2-10%
Revenue → Referral	NPS / Referral Rate	10-30%

Product Type Calibration

Expectations vary by product type (from v0.2 BR-):

Product Type	Acquisition	Activation	Retention	Revenue
Fast Follow	High (known category)	High (familiar UX)	Medium (easy to switch)	Quick
Slice	Medium (niche)	High (focused value)	High (workflow fit)	Medium
Innovation	Low (education needed)	Low (learning curve)	High (if activated)	Slow

Tracking Infrastructure Checklist

Component	Purpose	Tool Examples
Product Analytics	User behavior	Mixpanel, Amplitude, PostHog
Web Analytics	Traffic, sources	GA4, Plausible, Fathom
Event Tracking	Specific actions	Segment, custom events
Error Tracking	Failures, issues	Sentry, LogRocket
Session Recording	User experience	Hotjar, FullStory
A/B Testing	Experiments	LaunchDarkly, Statsig

Event Schema for Launch

Define standard events for launch tracking:

# Acquisition Events
signup_started: { source, campaign, referrer }
signup_completed: { source, campaign, user_id }
signup_abandoned: { step, source, reason }

# Activation Events
onboarding_started: { user_id }
onboarding_step_completed: { user_id, step }
first_value_achieved: { user_id, action, time_to_value }

# Engagement Events
feature_used: { user_id, feature, context }
session_start: { user_id, day_number }
session_end: { user_id, duration }

# Conversion Events
upgrade_started: { user_id, plan }
payment_completed: { user_id, plan, amount }

Launch Dashboard Layout

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ LAUNCH DASHBOARD                    Last updated: [time]    │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ REACH          │ ACQUISITION     │ ACTIVATION              │
│ Visitors: X    │ Signups: Y      │ Activated: Z%           │
│ Target: X      │ Target: Y       │ Target: Z%              │
│ [trend chart]  │ [trend chart]   │ [trend chart]           │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ RETENTION      │ REVENUE         │ CHANNELS                │
│ D7: X%         │ MRR: $Y         │ Product Hunt: X         │
│ Target: X%     │ Target: $Y      │ Direct: Y               │
│ [cohort chart] │ [revenue chart] │ [breakdown chart]       │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Anti-Patterns

Pattern	Signal	Fix
Vanity metrics only	Tracking visitors but not activation	Focus on funnel progression
No targets	"We got 1000 signups!" (is that good?)	Set explicit targets per timeframe
Lagging only	Only tracking revenue	Add leading indicators (activation)
No action thresholds	Metrics exist but no response plan	Define red/yellow/green zones
Over-instrumentation	200 events, can't find signal	Focus on 10-15 key events
No attribution	Don't know which channel works	Track source for all signups

Quality Gates

Before proceeding to Feedback Loop Setup:

• Launch funnel metrics defined (Reach → Referral)
• Targets set for Day 1, Day 7, Day 30
• Tracking infrastructure configured
• Launch dashboard created and accessible
• Action thresholds defined for critical metrics
• KPI- entries link to GTM- channels
• Product type calibration applied to targets

Downstream Connections

Consumer	What It Uses	Example
Feedback Loop Setup	KPI- thresholds trigger feedback collection	KPI-103 <30% → investigate with CFD-
Daily Standup	KPI- dashboard for launch status	"Activation at 42%, on track"
Pivot Decisions	KPI- data informs strategy	KPI-104 <15% → fundamental problem
Investor Updates	KPI- for launch performance	"Day 30: 5000 signups, 45% activated"
v1.0 Planning	KPI- baselines for growth targets	KPI-102 baseline → 10% MoM growth

Detailed References

• Metric definition examples: See references/metric-examples.md
• KPI- entry template: See assets/kpi-launch-template.md
• Dashboard design guide: See references/dashboard-design.md
• Event schema examples: See references/event-schema.md