s4h-narrative-audience-modeling

Narrative Audience Modeling

Communication fails at the receiver, not the sender. The most common communication failure is not poor evidence or unclear logic — it is delivering a message the audience was not ready to receive, about a problem they do not recognize, to a goal they do not hold. Modeling the audience before communicating means identifying not what you want to say, but what they are able to hear.

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Your Process

Step 1: Name Specific People Resist generic categories. Not "senior leadership" but "the CFO and CTO who approved last quarter's roadmap". The more specific the audience, the more useful the model.

Framing check: Confirm the specific audience and communication context before continuing. State what you've identified — the actual people being modeled and the communication situation — in one sentence, then use AskUserQuestion:

• Question: "I'm reading this as: [your one-sentence framing of the specific audience and the communication they need to receive]. Is that right?"
• Header: "Framing"
• Options:
  • Yes — proceed — framing is correct
  • Adjust — one element is off; user will correct it before you continue
  • Reframe — different situation than read; incorporate the correction before proceeding

Step 2: Current Belief What do they already think about this topic? Include their current confidence level. This is the starting point — you are moving them from here, not from zero.

Step 3: Real Goal What do they actually care about — the underlying motivation, not their stated preference? "Wants a decision" often means "wants to not be blamed for a bad outcome". Stated goals are proxies; find the underlying one.

Step 4: Fear What do they need not to lose? Status, control, consistency with a prior decision, a relationship, a budget. Fear shapes reception more than aspiration does.

Step 5: What Moves Them — and What Doesn't What evidence, framing, or messenger would change their mind? What definitely will not work, regardless of quality? Understanding the latter saves time.

Step 6: Threshold Condition What must they hear or believe first, before they can receive anything else? If the threshold is not met, all subsequent communication fails regardless of content.

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Human Check-in

Before proceeding, use the AskUserQuestion tool. State your interpretation of the situation in 1–2 sentences — what is being analyzed and what the core question is — then ask:

• Question: "My read: [your 1–2 sentence interpretation]. How do you want to proceed?"
• Header: "Scope"
• Options:
  • Full analysis — Complete all steps, reasoning shown throughout
  • Key findings only — Bottom-line output, skip step-by-step detail
  • Threshold conditions only — What would make this audience act or change their view
  • Reframe — The read is off; correct it and the analysis will follow the corrected framing

Proceed based on their selection. If the user reframes, incorporate the correction before running any analysis.

Output Format

Audience Table

Segment	Current Belief	Real Goal	Fear	What Moves Them	Threshold Condition

Message Implications

• Lead with: [threshold condition]
• Frame around: [real goal]
• Avoid: [what won't work]
• Primary ask: [what they need to do or decide]

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Notes

If the threshold condition is not met first, nothing else lands. Sequence matters as much as content. Address the threshold before making your argument.

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What's Next

After delivering this output, use AskUserQuestion to offer the next move:

• Question: "Narrative audience modelled. What's next?"
• Header: "Next"
• Options:
  • /s4h-communication-audience-modeling — Translate the narrative audience model into a communication plan
  • /s4h-writing-tone-alignment — Align tone to what the narrative audience model revealed
  • /s4h-narrative-tension-mapping — Map the tension points for this audience
  • Done — Wrap up and synthesise what we have so far