Business Scenario Explorer

Explore multiple business timeline scenarios with constraint validation and decision optimization.

Instructions

You are tasked with creating a comprehensive business scenario simulation to help explore multiple future timelines and make better strategic decisions. Follow this systematic approach: $ARGUMENTS

1. Prerequisites Assessment

Before proceeding, validate these critical inputs:

• Business Context: Is the core business model and industry clearly defined?
• Time Horizon: What is the planning timeline (quarters, years, market cycles)?
• Key Variables: What are the primary factors that could change outcomes?
• Success Metrics: How will you measure scenario success/failure?
• Decision Points: What specific decisions need to be made?

If any of these are unclear, use progressive questioning:

Missing Business Context:
"I need to understand your business model better. Please describe:
- Your primary revenue streams
- Key cost drivers 
- Main competitive advantages
- Target market segments"

Missing Time Horizon:
"What planning period should we simulate?
- Short-term (3-6 months): Market response, product launches
- Medium-term (1-2 years): Strategic initiatives, market expansion  
- Long-term (3-5+ years): Industry transformation, market cycles"

Missing Key Variables:
"What factors could significantly impact your business?
- Market conditions (growth, recession, disruption)
- Competitive landscape changes
- Regulatory shifts
- Technology adoption
- Customer behavior evolution"

2. Constraint Modeling

Map the decision environment with systematic constraint analysis:

External Constraints

• Market size and growth dynamics
• Competitive positioning and responses
• Regulatory environment and compliance requirements
• Economic conditions and cycles
• Technology adoption curves
• Supply chain dependencies

Internal Constraints

• Financial resources and burn rate
• Team capabilities and capacity
• Technology infrastructure limitations
• Brand positioning and reputation
• Customer base characteristics
• Operational scalability factors

Temporal Constraints

• Product development cycles
• Market timing windows
• Seasonal business patterns
• Contract and partnership timelines
• Regulatory approval processes

Quality Gate: Validate that constraints are:

• Specific and measurable
• Based on real data where possible
• Include ranges/uncertainty bounds
• Account for interdependencies

3. Scenario Architecture

Design multiple timeline branches systematically:

Base Case Scenario

• Most likely outcome given current trajectory
• Conservative assumptions about key variables
• Historical pattern extrapolation
• Risk-adjusted projections

Optimistic Scenarios (2-3 variants)

• Best-case market conditions
• Successful execution of all initiatives
• Favorable competitive dynamics
• Accelerated adoption/growth

Pessimistic Scenarios (2-3 variants)

• Economic downturn impact
• Increased competition
• Execution challenges
• Regulatory headwinds

Disruption Scenarios (2-3 variants)

• Technology breakthrough impacts
• New market entrants
• Business model shifts
• Black swan events

Progressive Depth: Start with 3-5 high-level scenarios, then drill into the most impactful ones.

4. Timeline Compression Simulation

Run accelerated scenario testing:

Quarter-by-Quarter Analysis

• Revenue progression under each scenario
• Cost structure evolution
• Market share dynamics
• Key milestone achievement

Decision Point Mapping

• Critical decisions required at each timeline juncture
• Option values and decision trees
• Point-of-no-return identification
• Pivot opportunity windows

Feedback Loop Modeling

• How early results would inform later decisions
• Adaptive strategy adjustments
• Learning and refinement cycles

5. Quantitative Modeling

Apply systematic measurement to scenarios:

Financial Projections

• Revenue growth trajectories
• Profit margin evolution
• Cash flow dynamics
• Investment requirements
• ROI calculations across timelines

Market Dynamics

• Market share progression
• Customer acquisition costs
• Lifetime value evolution
• Competitive response modeling

Operational Metrics

• Team scaling requirements
• Infrastructure capacity needs
• Efficiency improvements
• Quality indicators

Confidence Scoring: Rate each projection 1-10 based on:

• Data quality supporting the assumption
• Historical precedent availability
• Expert validation received
• Logical consistency with other assumptions

6. Risk Assessment & Mitigation

Systematically evaluate scenario risks:

Probability Weighting

• Assign realistic probabilities to each scenario
• Use base rate analysis from similar situations
• Account for planning fallacy and optimism bias
• Include expert opinion and market research

Impact Analysis

• Quantify potential upside/downside for each scenario
• Identify business-critical failure modes
• Map cascade effects and domino risks
• Calculate expected value across scenarios

Mitigation Strategies

• Identify early warning indicators for each scenario
• Design adaptive responses and pivot strategies
• Build option values and flexibility into plans
• Create risk monitoring dashboards

7. Decision Optimization

Generate actionable strategic guidance:

Strategy Robustness Testing

• Which strategies perform well across multiple scenarios?
• What are the key sensitivity factors?
• Where are the highest-leverage decision points?
• What creates competitive moats in each timeline?

Resource Allocation Optimization

• Optimal budget allocation across scenarios
• Investment sequencing and timing
• Capability building priorities
• Partnership and acquisition strategies

Contingency Planning

• Specific action triggers for each scenario
• Resource reallocation frameworks
• Communication strategies for different outcomes
• Stakeholder management approaches

8. Calibration and Validation

Ensure simulation quality and accuracy:

Assumption Testing

• Compare key assumptions to historical data
• Validate with domain experts and stakeholders
• Stress-test critical assumptions
• Document confidence levels and sources

Scenario Plausibility Check

• Do scenarios follow logical progression?
• Are interdependencies properly modeled?
• Do financial projections balance?
• Are timelines realistic given constraints?

Bias Detection

• Check for anchoring on current state
• Identify confirmation bias in favorable scenarios
• Validate pessimistic scenarios aren't too extreme
• Ensure scenarios cover full possibility space

9. Output Generation

Present findings in structured, actionable format:

## Business Scenario Analysis: [Business Name]

### Executive Summary
- Planning horizon: [timeline]
- Scenarios modeled: [count and types]
- Key decision points: [critical decisions]
- Recommended strategy: [specific approach]

### Scenario Outcomes Matrix

| Scenario | Probability | Year 1 Revenue | Year 2 Revenue | Key Risks | Success Factors |
|----------|-------------|----------------|----------------|-----------|-----------------|
| Base Case | 40% | $X | $Y | [risks] | [factors] |
| Optimistic A | 20% | $X | $Y | [risks] | [factors] |
| Pessimistic A | 25% | $X | $Y | [risks] | [factors] |
| Disruption A | 15% | $X | $Y | [risks] | [factors] |

### Strategic Recommendations

**Robust Strategies** (perform well across scenarios):
1. [Strategy with confidence score]
2. [Strategy with confidence score]
3. [Strategy with confidence score]

**Scenario-Specific Tactics**:
- If Base Case: [specific actions]
- If Optimistic: [specific actions]  
- If Pessimistic: [specific actions]
- If Disruption: [specific actions]

**Critical Decision Points**:
- Month 3: [decision] - Leading indicators: [metrics]
- Month 9: [decision] - Leading indicators: [metrics]
- Month 18: [decision] - Leading indicators: [metrics]

### Risk Mitigation Framework
- Early warning indicators for each scenario
- Specific response triggers and actions
- Resource reallocation procedures
- Stakeholder communication protocols

### Confidence Assessment
- High confidence projections: [list]
- Medium confidence projections: [list]  
- Low confidence projections: [list]
- Areas requiring additional research: [list]

10. Iteration and Refinement

Establish ongoing scenario improvement:

Feedback Integration

• Monthly assumption validation against actual results
• Quarterly scenario probability updates
• Annual comprehensive scenario refresh
• Continuous learning from scenario accuracy

Model Enhancement

• Incorporate new data sources as available
• Refine constraint modeling based on experience
• Update probability assessments based on outcomes
• Enhance decision point identification

Success Metrics:

• Scenario accuracy over time
• Decision quality improvement
• Strategic option value realization
• Risk event prediction success

Usage Examples

# Strategic business planning
/simulation:business-scenario-explorer Evaluate SaaS expansion into European markets over next 2 years

# Product launch planning
/simulation:business-scenario-explorer Model outcomes for AI-powered feature launch across different market conditions

# Investment decision
/simulation:business-scenario-explorer Analyze ROI scenarios for $5M Series A funding across market conditions

# Market entry strategy
/simulation:business-scenario-explorer Explore timeline scenarios for entering fintech market as established player

Quality Indicators

• Green: 80%+ confidence in key assumptions, full constraint modeling, 5+ scenarios analyzed
• Yellow: 60-80% confidence, partial constraint mapping, 3-4 scenarios
• Red: <60% confidence, missing critical constraints, <3 scenarios

Common Pitfalls to Avoid

• Planning fallacy: Overly optimistic timelines
• Anchoring bias: Scenarios too close to current state
• Confirmation bias: Favoring pleasant outcomes
• Missing constraints: Ignoring regulatory/competitive factors
• Point estimates: Not using probability distributions
• Static thinking: Not modeling adaptive responses

Transform your 10-year market cycle into a 10-hour simulation and make exponentially better strategic decisions.