/market-opportunity

Market Opportunity Analysis

Generate a comprehensive market opportunity analysis for a startup, including Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) calculations using both bottom-up and top-down methodologies.

What This Command Does

This command guides through an interactive market sizing process to:

1. Define the target market and customer segments
2. Gather relevant market data
3. Calculate TAM using bottom-up methodology
4. Validate with top-down analysis
5. Narrow to SAM with appropriate filters
6. Estimate realistic SOM (3-5 year opportunity)
7. Present findings in a formatted report

Instructions for Claude

When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

Step 1: Gather Context

Ask the user for essential information:

• Product/Service Description: What problem is being solved?
• Target Customers: Who is the ideal customer? (industry, size, geography)
• Business Model: How does pricing work? (subscription, transaction, etc.)
• Stage: What stage is the company? (pre-launch, seed, Series A)
• Geography: Initial target market (US, North America, Global)

Step 2: Activate market-sizing-analysis Skill

The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference it for:

• Bottom-up calculation frameworks
• Top-down validation approaches
• Industry-specific templates
• Data source recommendations

Step 3: Conduct Bottom-Up Analysis

For B2B/SaaS:

1. Define customer segments (company size, industry, use case)
2. Estimate number of companies in each segment
3. Determine average contract value (ACV) per segment
4. Calculate TAM: Σ (Segment Size × ACV)

For Consumer/Marketplace:

1. Define target user demographics
2. Estimate total addressable users
3. Determine average revenue per user (ARPU)
4. Calculate TAM: Total Users × ARPU × Frequency

For Transactions/E-commerce:

1. Estimate total transaction volume (GMV)
2. Determine take rate or margin
3. Calculate TAM: Total GMV × Take Rate

Step 4: Gather Market Data

Use available tools to research:

• WebSearch: Find industry reports, market size estimates, public company data
• Cite all sources with URLs and publication dates
• Document assumptions clearly

Recommended data sources (from skill):

• Government data (Census, BLS)
• Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, Statista)
• Public company filings (10-K reports)
• Trade associations
• Academic research

Step 5: Top-Down Validation

Validate bottom-up calculation:

1. Find total market category size from research
2. Apply geographic filters
3. Apply segment/product filters
4. Compare to bottom-up TAM (should be within 30%)

If variance > 30%, investigate and explain differences.

Step 6: Calculate SAM

Apply realistic filters to narrow TAM:

• Geographic: Regions actually serviceable
• Product Capability: Features needed to serve
• Market Readiness: Customers ready to adopt
• Addressable Switching: Can reach and convert

Formula:

SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Product Fit % × Market Readiness %

Step 7: Estimate SOM

Calculate realistic obtainable market share:

Conservative Approach (Recommended):

• Year 3: 2-3% of SAM
• Year 5: 4-6% of SAM

Consider:

• Competitive intensity
• Available resources (funding, team)
• Go-to-market effectiveness
• Differentiation strength

Step 8: Create Market Sizing Report

Generate a comprehensive markdown report with:

Section 1: Executive Summary

• Market opportunity in one paragraph
• TAM/SAM/SOM headline numbers

Section 2: Market Definition

• Problem being solved
• Target customer profile
• Geographic scope
• Time horizon

Section 3: Bottom-Up Analysis

• Customer segment breakdown
• Segment sizing with sources
• TAM calculation with formula
• Assumptions documented

Section 4: Top-Down Validation

• Industry category and size
• Filter application
• Validated TAM
• Comparison to bottom-up

Section 5: SAM Calculation

• Filters applied with rationale
• SAM formula and result
• Segment-level breakdown

Section 6: SOM Projection

• Market share assumptions
• Year 3 and Year 5 estimates
• Customer count implications
• Revenue projections

Section 7: Market Growth

• Industry growth rate (CAGR)
• Key growth drivers
• 5-year market evolution

Section 8: Validation and Sanity Checks

• Public company comparisons
• Customer count validation
• Competitive context

Section 9: Investment Thesis

• Market opportunity assessment
• Key positives and risks
• Venture-scale potential
• Next steps

Step 9: Save Report

Offer to save the report as a markdown file:

• Suggest filename: market-opportunity-analysis-YYYY-MM-DD.md
• Use Write tool to create file
• Confirm file location with user

Tips for Best Results

Do:

• Start with bottom-up (most credible)
• Always triangulate with top-down
• Cite all data sources
• Document every assumption
• Be conservative on SOM
• Compare to public company benchmarks
• Explain any data gaps or limitations

Don't:

• Rely solely on top-down
• Cherry-pick optimistic data
• Claim >10% SOM without strong justification
• Mix methodologies inappropriately
• Ignore competitive context
• Skip validation steps

Example Usage

User: /market-opportunity

Claude: I'll help you create a comprehensive market opportunity analysis. Let me start by gathering some context.

What product or service are you analyzing?
→ "AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce companies"

Who are your target customers?
→ "E-commerce companies with $1M+ annual revenue in North America"

What's your pricing model?
→ "Subscription: $50-500/month based on email volume, average $300/month"

[Claude proceeds with analysis, gathering data, calculating TAM/SAM/SOM, and generating report]

Integration with Other Commands

This command pairs well with:

• /financial-projections - Use SOM to build revenue model
• /business-case - Include market sizing in business case

Notes

• Market sizing typically takes 30-60 minutes for thorough analysis
• Quality depends on data availability - explain limitations
• Update annually as market evolves
• Conservative estimates build credibility with investors