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From thinking-skills
Selects the right mental model for diagnosing problems, making decisions, or analyzing complex situations. Use when current approaches fail or you face unfamiliar problem types.
npx claudepluginhub tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --plugin thinking-skillsHow this skill is triggered — by the user, by Claude, or both
Slash command
/thinking-skills:thinking-model-selectionThe summary Claude sees in its skill listing — used to decide when to auto-load this skill
> **Overlaps thinking-model-router.** If you already know which model fits, skip routing entirely and just invoke that model. If you don't, **thinking-model-router** is the single entry point — start there. This skill goes deeper on *how* to classify a problem and *when to abandon* a model once chosen. (Audit recommends merging this into thinking-model-router; for now, prefer the router as the ...
Routes coding, architecture, product, and strategy problems to the right mental model (e.g. 5 Whys, Systems Thinking, Theory of Constraints). Use when unsure which framework fits.
Challenges assumptions, applies mental models like SWOT, first principles, and inversion, and structures reasoning to sharpen decisions and solve complex problems.
Applies Naval Ravikant's mental models like compound interest, inversion, principal-agent problem to analyze complex situations, counterintuitive ideas, or business/life decisions.
Share bugs, ideas, or general feedback.
Overlaps thinking-model-router. If you already know which model fits, skip routing entirely and just invoke that model. If you don't, thinking-model-router is the single entry point — start there. This skill goes deeper on how to classify a problem and when to abandon a model once chosen. (Audit recommends merging this into thinking-model-router; for now, prefer the router as the front door.)
Every mental model has a domain where it excels and domains where it fails. Model selection is the meta-skill of recognizing which model fits which problem. The expert doesn't just know many models—they know when to apply each one. Using the wrong model is often worse than using no model at all.
Core Principle: The map is not the territory. Choose the map that best serves your journey.
Decision flow:
Facing a problem?
→ Have you identified the problem type? → no → CLASSIFY THE PROBLEM FIRST
→ Does your usual model fit? → no → CONSIDER ALTERNATIVES
→ Are you using a model by habit? → yes → QUESTION THE FIT
thinking-model-router — it is the single entry point that routes to the right skill. This skill goes deeper on how to classify problems and match models, but only after the router has narrowed the field.thinking-scientific-method or thinking-five-whys-plus directly. Don't run a full model-selection exercise to confirm what you already know.Redirect: For nearly all cases, start with
thinking-model-router— it classifies the problem and dispatches to the right skill in one pass. This skill is the reference for how that classification works, not a replacement for the router.
When your usual problem-solving approach has demonstrably failed and you need to match a different tool to the task:
If you don't know which approach to use at all, start with thinking-model-router — it does the classification and dispatch in one pass.
## Problem Classification
Problem: [Describe the problem]
Problem dimensions:
| Dimension | Assessment |
|-----------|------------|
| Predictability | Can outcomes be predicted? [High/Medium/Low] |
| Complexity | How many interacting parts? [Simple/Complicated/Complex] |
| Time horizon | When do consequences matter? [Immediate/Short/Long] |
| Reversibility | Can decisions be undone? [Easily/With difficulty/Not at all] |
| Information | How much do you know? [Complete/Partial/Minimal] |
| Stakeholders | Who's affected? [Individual/Team/Organization/Society] |
## Model Category Matching
Based on classification, which category fits?
| Problem Type | Model Category | Examples |
|--------------|----------------|----------|
| Root cause unknown | Diagnostic models | 5 Whys, Scientific Method, Kepner-Tregoe |
| Decision under uncertainty | Probabilistic models | Bayesian, Expected Value, Regret Minimization |
| System behavior | Systems models | Feedback Loops, Leverage Points, Archetypes |
| Cognitive bias risk | Debiasing models | Pre-mortem, Red Team, Steel-manning |
| Resource allocation | Constraint models | Theory of Constraints, Opportunity Cost |
| Innovation/exploration | Generative models | First Principles, TRIZ, Effectuation |
| Domain classification | Meta models | Cynefin, Circle of Competence |
## Model Selection
Category: [From Step 2]
Candidate models:
| Model | Fit Score | Strengths for This Problem | Weaknesses |
|-------|-----------|---------------------------|------------|
| [Model 1] | [1-5] | [Why it fits] | [Limitations] |
| [Model 2] | [1-5] | [Why it fits] | [Limitations] |
| [Model 3] | [1-5] | [Why it fits] | [Limitations] |
Selected model: [Choice]
Rationale: [Why this model for this problem]
DIAGNOSTIC PROBLEMS (What's causing this?)
├── Known categories exist → Kepner-Tregoe (systematic analysis)
├── Need quick root cause → 5 Whys Plus (iterative drilling)
├── Hypothesis-driven → Scientific Method (test and falsify)
└── System-wide issue → Feedback Loops (find reinforcing patterns)
DECISION PROBLEMS (What should we do?)
├── High stakes, irreversible → Regret Minimization, Pre-mortem
├── Under uncertainty → Bayesian, Probabilistic Thinking
├── Resource constrained → Opportunity Cost, Theory of Constraints
├── Multiple options → Kepner-Tregoe (decision analysis)
└── Type 1 vs Type 2 → Reversibility Framework
UNDERSTANDING PROBLEMS (How does this work?)
├── Complex system → Systems Thinking, Feedback Loops
├── Human behavior → Jobs to be Done, Incentive Analysis
├── Organizational → Archetypes, Leverage Points
└── Competitive → Red Team, Game Theory
CREATIVE PROBLEMS (How might we...?)
├── Break assumptions → First Principles, TRIZ
├── Limited resources → Effectuation, Via Negativa
├── Technical contradiction → TRIZ
└── Unknown territory → Thought Experiments, Cynefin (probe)
EVALUATION PROBLEMS (Is this good?)
├── Arguments/proposals → Steel-manning, Red Team
├── Predictions → Probabilistic, Calibration
├── Longevity → Lindy Effect
├── Safety → Margin of Safety, Pre-mortem
└── Expertise fit → Circle of Competence
## Domain-Model Mapping
| Domain | Primary Models | Why |
|--------|---------------|-----|
| Debugging | Scientific Method, 5 Whys | Hypothesis-differential localization, root cause |
| Architecture | Systems Thinking, Leverage Points | Interconnections, intervention |
| Product | Jobs to be Done, Cynefin | User needs, complexity |
| Strategy | Red Team, Pre-mortem | Adversarial, risk |
| Performance | Theory of Constraints, Fermi | Bottlenecks, estimation |
| Decisions | Reversibility, Regret Minimization | Stakes assessment |
| Innovation | First Principles, TRIZ | Breakthrough thinking |
| Risk | Margin of Safety, Probabilistic | Uncertainty handling |
## Model Mismatch Indicators
Signs you're using the wrong model:
- Analysis feels forced or awkward
- Key aspects don't fit the framework
- You're ignoring important factors
- Results don't match intuition consistently
- Stakeholders don't recognize the framing
Common mismatches:
| Situation | Wrong Model | Right Model |
|-----------|-------------|-------------|
| Complex adaptive system | Root cause analysis | Systems thinking |
| Simple process problem | Systems thinking | Checklist/SOP |
| Uncertain future | Detailed planning | Effectuation |
| Known domain | First principles | Best practices |
| Political problem | Technical analysis | Stakeholder mapping |
## Model Overuse Patterns
"When you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail"
Signs of overuse:
- You use the same model for every problem
- You haven't learned new models recently
- Problems that don't fit are "forced" into the model
- You dismiss problems that don't fit your model
Fix: Deliberately practice with unfamiliar models
Ask: "What model would someone else use?"
Rotate models intentionally
## Quick Model Selection
1. What type of problem? [Diagnostic/Decision/Understanding/Creative/Evaluation]
2. What's the constraint? [Time/Information/Stakes/Complexity]
3. What's the default model for this type?
4. Any reason NOT to use the default?
5. Proceed or reconsider
Default models by type:
- Diagnostic → 5 Whys Plus
- Decision → Reversibility check first
- Understanding → Systems Thinking
- Creative → First Principles
- Evaluation → Steel-manning
## Deliberate Model Selection
1. Characterize the problem fully
2. Identify 3-5 candidate models
3. Score each on fit
4. Consider combining models
5. Select and document rationale
6. Plan to reassess if model doesn't illuminate
Selection criteria:
| Criterion | Weight | Model A | Model B | Model C |
|-----------|--------|---------|---------|---------|
| Problem fit | 30% | | | |
| Available info | 20% | | | |
| Time to apply | 15% | | | |
| Stakeholder acceptance | 15% | | | |
| My competence with model | 20% | | | |
# Model Selection: [Problem]
## Problem Characterization
Type: [Diagnostic/Decision/Understanding/Creative/Evaluation]
Complexity: [Simple/Complicated/Complex/Chaotic]
Stakes: [Low/Medium/High]
Reversibility: [High/Medium/Low]
Information: [Complete/Partial/Minimal]
## Candidate Models
| Model | Fit | Strengths | Weaknesses |
|-------|-----|-----------|------------|
| | | | |
## Selected Model
Model: [Choice]
Rationale: [Why this model]
## Fallback
If selected model doesn't work: [Alternative]
Signs to switch: [Indicators]
## Application Plan
How I'll use this model:
1. [Step]
2. [Step]
## Model Combination Triggers
Use multiple models when:
- Problem spans multiple types
- Single model leaves blind spots
- Stakes are very high
- Time allows deeper analysis
Combination patterns:
- Sequential: Use A to narrow, then B to decide
- Parallel: Use A and B independently, compare results
- Nested: Use A at macro level, B at micro level
## Model Exit Criteria
Stop using a model when:
- 15+ minutes with no insight
- Key facts don't fit the framework
- You're forcing the analysis
- Someone suggests a better fit
Don't stop just because:
- The answer is uncomfortable
- It requires more work
- Results disagree with intuition (investigate why)
"You've got to have models in your head. And you've got to array your experience—both vicarious and direct—on this latticework of models."
"You must know the big ideas in the big disciplines, and use them routinely—all of them, not just a few."
The power isn't in any single model—it's in having many models and knowing when each applies. A tool is only useful when matched to the task. The meta-skill of model selection multiplies the value of every model you know.