thinking-bayesian

Bayesian Reasoning

Overview

Bayesian thinking provides a framework for updating beliefs based on new evidence. Rather than treating beliefs as binary (true/false), it recognizes degrees of confidence that should shift as evidence accumulates. This approach, rooted in Bayes' Theorem, helps avoid both overconfidence and underreaction to new information.

Core Principle: State the base rate before you look at the evidence, then update. The single most common error is anchoring on a vivid result and skipping the prior — a positive test for a rare condition is usually still a false alarm.

Redirect: For nearly all uncertainty-reasoning tasks, prefer thinking-probabilistic — it covers forecasting with ranges, calibration, and uncertainty communication without requiring explicit priors and likelihood ratios. Reserve this skill for the narrow case where you have a specific, quantified prior AND a specific piece of evidence to combine via Bayes' rule. If you only need a rough updated number, the base-rate-then-likelihood-ratio trigger below is enough — don't run the full theorem.

Trigger Card

When interpreting a test result, metric, or new evidence where overreaction is a risk:

1. State the base rate first — what was the probability before the evidence?
2. Estimate the likelihood ratio — how much more expected is the evidence under the hypothesis vs. not?
3. Update: posterior odds = prior odds × likelihood ratio.

If the base rate is very low (rare condition), a positive result is usually still a false alarm. Always start with the prior.

When to Use

• Estimating probabilities or likelihoods
• Interpreting test results or metrics
• Making decisions with incomplete information
• Evaluating competing hypotheses
• Learning from experiments or A/B tests
• Diagnosing problems with uncertain causes
• Predicting outcomes based on historical data

Decision flow:

Uncertain about something? → yes → Have prior belief? → yes → New evidence? → APPLY BAYESIAN UPDATE
                                                      ↘ no → Establish base rate first
                         ↘ no → Standard analysis may suffice

When NOT to Use

• You're reasoning under uncertainty and don't have a specific prior + evidence pair. Use thinking-probabilistic instead — it handles forecasting with ranges, calibration, and uncertainty communication without requiring formal Bayesian machinery.
• The evidence is conclusive or directly observable. If you can read the logs, run the query, or look up the answer, do that — don't dress up a near-certainty as a probability.
• No meaningful prior exists and you'd just be inventing numbers. A fabricated base rate gives false rigor; say the prior is unknown instead.
• The decision is the same at any plausible posterior. If you'd act identically whether the probability is 40% or 70%, skip the update and act.
• You need to express uncertainty as a calibrated range, not a point update from a single piece of evidence — that's thinking-probabilistic territory.

Key Concepts

Prior Probability

Your belief BEFORE seeing new evidence:

P(H) = probability that hypothesis H is true

Example: Before any symptoms, what's the probability someone has disease X?
         Use base rate: If 1 in 1000 people have it, P(disease) = 0.001

Likelihood

How probable is the evidence IF the hypothesis is true?

P(E|H) = probability of seeing evidence E, given H is true

Example: If someone HAS the disease, what's the probability of a positive test?
         If test is 99% sensitive: P(positive|disease) = 0.99

Posterior Probability

Your belief AFTER seeing the evidence:

P(H|E) = updated probability of H, given you observed E

This is what Bayes' Theorem calculates.

Bayes' Theorem

                P(E|H) × P(H)
P(H|E) = ─────────────────────────
                   P(E)

Where:
  P(H|E) = posterior (what we want)
  P(E|H) = likelihood (how expected is evidence if H true)
  P(H)   = prior (initial belief)
  P(E)   = total probability of evidence

Intuitive Form

Posterior odds = Prior odds × Likelihood ratio

If evidence is 10x more likely under H than under not-H,
your odds should shift by factor of 10.

The Process

Step 1: Establish Your Prior

What did you believe before this evidence?

• Use base rates when available
• Be explicit about uncertainty
• Don't anchor on 50% just because you're unsure

Question: Will this feature increase conversion?
Prior: Based on similar features, ~30% succeed significantly
       P(success) = 0.30

Step 2: Assess the Evidence

How strong is this evidence? Consider:

• How likely is this evidence if hypothesis is TRUE?
• How likely is this evidence if hypothesis is FALSE?
• What's the ratio?

Evidence: Early A/B test shows 5% lift (p=0.08)
P(this result | feature works) = 0.60 (moderately expected)
P(this result | feature doesn't work) = 0.15 (possible but less likely)
Likelihood ratio = 0.60 / 0.15 = 4x

Step 3: Update Your Belief

Apply the likelihood ratio to your prior:

Prior odds: 0.30 / 0.70 = 0.43
Likelihood ratio: 4x
Posterior odds: 0.43 × 4 = 1.72
Posterior probability: 1.72 / (1 + 1.72) = 0.63

Updated belief: 63% confidence feature will succeed
(up from 30% prior)

Step 4: Iterate as More Evidence Arrives

Yesterday's posterior becomes today's prior:

New evidence: Week 2 shows lift holding at 4.5%
Prior (from step 3): 0.63
[Repeat update process]
New posterior: 0.78

Common Applications

Interpreting Test Results

Scenario: Test for rare disease (1 in 10,000 prevalence)
Test: 99% sensitive, 99% specific

Prior: P(disease) = 0.0001
If positive test:
  P(positive|disease) = 0.99
  P(positive|no disease) = 0.01
  P(positive) = 0.99 × 0.0001 + 0.01 × 0.9999 ≈ 0.0101

Posterior: P(disease|positive) = (0.99 × 0.0001) / 0.0101 ≈ 0.0098

Even with 99% accurate test, positive result only means ~1% chance of disease!
Base rate dominates when condition is rare.

Debugging

Bug report: Users see error X
Prior beliefs:
  P(database issue) = 0.20
  P(network issue) = 0.30
  P(code bug) = 0.40
  P(user error) = 0.10

Evidence: Error happens only on mobile
  P(mobile-only | database) = 0.05
  P(mobile-only | network) = 0.30
  P(mobile-only | code bug) = 0.60
  P(mobile-only | user error) = 0.40

Update: Code bug becomes most likely (posterior ~0.55)
Next step: Investigate mobile-specific code paths

Project Estimation

Prior: Based on similar projects, P(on-time) = 0.40

Evidence 1: Team is experienced with this stack
  Likelihood ratio: 1.5x → Posterior: 0.50

Evidence 2: Requirements are unclear
  Likelihood ratio: 0.6x → Posterior: 0.38

Evidence 3: Critical dependency has risk
  Likelihood ratio: 0.7x → Posterior: 0.30

Final estimate: 30% chance of on-time delivery

Mental Shortcuts

Strong vs Weak Evidence

Evidence Type	Typical Likelihood Ratio
Definitive proof	100x+
Strong evidence	10-100x
Moderate evidence	3-10x
Weak evidence	1.5-3x
Noise	~1x (no update)

When to Update Significantly

Update strongly when:

• Evidence is surprising under your current belief
• Evidence comes from reliable source
• Evidence is specific to your hypothesis

Update weakly when:

• Evidence is expected regardless of hypothesis
• Source has unknown reliability
• Evidence is circumstantial

Base Rate Neglect (Avoid This)

Common error: Ignoring prior probability when evidence arrives

Wrong: "Positive test = probably have disease"
Right: "Positive test shifts probability, but base rate matters"

Calibration Check

Are You Well-Calibrated?

Track predictions and outcomes:

• Of things you said were "70% likely," did ~70% happen?
• If you're always overconfident, widen your uncertainty
• If you're always underconfident, trust your assessments more

Confidence Levels

Stated Confidence	Should Mean
50%	Coin flip
70%	Would bet 2:1
90%	Would bet 9:1
99%	Would bet 99:1

Verification Checklist

• Established explicit prior probability (not just "I think...")
• Assessed likelihood ratio of evidence
• Applied update mathematically (not just "more/less likely")
• Considered base rates for rare events
• Checked for base rate neglect
• Documented reasoning for future calibration

Key Questions

• "What was my belief before this evidence?"
• "How likely is this evidence if my belief is true? If false?"
• "What's the likelihood ratio?"
• "Am I anchoring on the evidence and ignoring base rates?"
• "How would I bet on this? At what odds?"

Kahneman's Warning

"People tend to assess the relative importance of issues by the ease with which they are retrieved from memory—and this is largely determined by the extent of coverage in the media."

Don't let vivid evidence override base rates. A plane crash doesn't make flying more dangerous than driving, even though it feels that way.