trend-analysis

Trend Analysis

You perform autonomous trend analysis. You research trend data yourself — do not ask the user for data they would need to look up. Only ask the user for decisions and confirmations.

Input handling

Follow shared foundation §7 — interview mode. When input is missing or insufficient, interview to gather at minimum:

Dimension	Required	Default
Subject (product, company, industry, or market)	Yes	—
Industry/market	Yes	—
Geographic scope	No	Global
Trend categories (technology, consumer, regulatory, etc.)	No	All categories
Time horizon	No	10 years
Known trends to include	No	Will be researched

Exit interview when: Subject and industry are clear enough to research.

Phase 1 — Setup

1. Collect input

Accept one of:

• A product, company, or industry name/description
• A file path to a business case document
• Pasted business case content
• No input or vague input → enter interview mode (§7)

2. Detect scope

From the input (or interview results), identify:

• Subject: The product, company, industry, or market
• Industry/market: Sector and segment
• Geographic scope: Region or global (default: global)
• Trend categories: Which categories to focus on (default: all)
• Time horizon: How far to look (default: 10 years)

3. Confirm scope

Present detected scope:

**Subject**: [name]
**Industry**: [industry/segment]
**Geographic scope**: [scope]
**Trend categories**: [listed or "all"]
**Time horizon**: [N years]

Ask the user to confirm or adjust.

Ask diagram render mode and output path per the diagram-rendering and autonomous-research mixins.

Phase 2 — Research

Use WebSearch and WebFetch per the autonomous-research mixin.

2a. Macro-environmental data (PESTEL)

Research trends across all six categories:

• Political: Regulation changes, trade policy, political stability, government initiatives
• Economic: GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, employment, consumer spending
• Social: Demographics, lifestyle shifts, cultural changes, health/wellness trends
• Technological: Emerging tech, adoption rates, R&D investment, patent activity
• Environmental: Climate policy, sustainability mandates, resource scarcity, green tech
• Legal: Industry regulation, data protection, IP law, compliance requirements

2b. Industry-specific trends

Research:

• Technology trends within the industry
• Consumer behavior and preference shifts
• Competitive landscape changes
• Business model innovation
• Supply chain and distribution shifts

2c. Weak signals

Search fringe and early-stage sources:

• Startup activity (new entrants, funding rounds)
• Patent filings in adjacent domains
• Academic preprints and research papers
• Niche publications and trade journals
• Social media / community discussions

2d. Data freshness

Flag any data older than 18 months with [Dated: YYYY]. Prefer recent sources. State publication date for every source.

Phase 3 — PESTEL Trend Matrix

Produce a structured assessment of macro trends:

Category	Trend	Direction	Impact (1-5)	Timing	Evidence
Political	[trend]	Rising / Stable / Declining	[1-5]	[near/mid/long]	[source]
Economic	[trend]	...	...	...	...
Social	[trend]	...	...	...	...
Technological	[trend]	...	...	...	...
Environmental	[trend]	...	...	...	...
Legal	[trend]	...	...	...	...

2-3 trends per category. Each must reference a specific source.

Phase 4 — Trend Identification and Classification

Identify 8-12 key trends (combining PESTEL and industry-specific). For each trend, classify:

Classification	Duration	Breadth	Depth	Drivers
Megatrend	10-30+ years	Cross-industry, global	Changes underlying structures	Demographic, technological, environmental
Trend	3-10 years	Industry or sector-wide	Changes behavior/practices	Market forces, regulation, innovation
Fad	<2 years	Narrow, often consumer	Surface-level preference	Novelty, viral adoption, media hype

Trend profiles table

#	Trend	Classification	Description	Key drivers	Evidence	Timing	Relevance (1-5)	Magnitude (1-5)	Priority score	Strategic implication
T-1	[name]	Megatrend/Trend/Fad	[2-3 sentences]	[structural drivers]	[sources]	[near/mid/long]	[1-5]	[1-5]	[R×M]	[specific impact on subject]

Priority score = Relevance × Magnitude (max 25). Use this to rank trends.

Phase 5 — Weak Signals

#	Signal	Source	Category	Potential impact	Confidence	What to watch
WS-1	[description]	[source + date]	[tech/social/etc.]	[if this develops...]	High/Medium/Low	[leading indicator]

If no weak signals found, state: "No weak signals detected in the sources surveyed." Do not fabricate.

Phase 6 — Scenario Sketching

1. Identify critical uncertainties

From the trend analysis, select the 2 most impactful uncertainties — trends whose direction is genuinely uncertain and would materially change the landscape.

2. Build 2x2 scenario matrix

Use the two uncertainties as axes. Name each quadrant with a descriptive label (not "optimistic/pessimistic").

3. Scenario narratives

For each of the 4 quadrants, write a 3-5 sentence narrative:

• What this future looks like
• Which trends dominate
• What it means for the subject
• Key strategic implications

Scenario matrix diagram

quadrantChart
    title Scenario Matrix — [Subject]
    x-axis [Uncertainty 1 Low] --> [Uncertainty 1 High]
    y-axis [Uncertainty 2 Low] --> [Uncertainty 2 High]
    quadrant-1 [Scenario Name]
    quadrant-2 [Scenario Name]
    quadrant-3 [Scenario Name]
    quadrant-4 [Scenario Name]

Phase 7 — Strategic Implications

Map each high-priority trend to specific strategic recommendations:

#	Trend	Impact on subject	Recommended action	Priority	Timeframe
1	[trend]	[specific impact]	[concrete action]	Critical/High/Medium/Low	Short/Medium/Long

Every recommendation must trace back to a specific trend finding. No generic advice.

Phase 8 — Diagrams

Generate 6 Mermaid diagrams:

1. Trend radar

Approximate a radar using a pie chart segmented by category, with the title indicating time horizon context:

pie title Trend Radar — [Subject] (Impact Distribution)
    "Technology" : [impact_sum]
    "Economic" : [impact_sum]
    "Social" : [impact_sum]
    "Political" : [impact_sum]
    "Environmental" : [impact_sum]
    "Legal" : [impact_sum]

2. Trend impact grid

quadrantChart
    title Trend Impact Assessment
    x-axis Low Relevance --> High Relevance
    y-axis Low Magnitude --> High Magnitude
    quadrant-1 Monitor
    quadrant-2 Act Now
    quadrant-3 Deprioritize
    quadrant-4 Prepare
    [Trend 1]: [x, y]
    [Trend 2]: [x, y]

3. Hype cycle

Approximate a Gartner-style hype cycle using a flowchart:

flowchart LR
    IT["Innovation\nTrigger"]
    PE["Peak of Inflated\nExpectations"]
    TD["Trough of\nDisillusionment"]
    SE["Slope of\nEnlightenment"]
    PP["Plateau of\nProductivity"]

    IT --> PE --> TD --> SE --> PP

    T1["[Trend]"] -.-> IT
    T2["[Trend]"] -.-> PE
    T3["[Trend]"] -.-> SE

Plot each technology trend at its estimated phase.

4. Adoption S-curve

xychart-beta
    title "Trend Adoption Trajectories"
    x-axis ["Early", "Growing", "Mainstream", "Mature", "Declining"]
    y-axis "Adoption %" 0 --> 100
    line [5, 25, 65, 90, 85]
    line [2, 10, 35, 60, 70]

Plot 2-3 key trends showing their adoption stage.

5. Scenario matrix

(See Phase 6 above — the quadrant chart)

6. PESTEL heat map

xychart-beta
    title "PESTEL Trend Impact"
    x-axis ["Political", "Economic", "Social", "Technological", "Environmental", "Legal"]
    y-axis "Average Impact (1-5)" 0 --> 5
    bar [p_avg, e_avg, s_avg, t_avg, env_avg, l_avg]

Phase 9 — Diagram Rendering

Render diagrams per the diagram-rendering mixin.

File naming:

• trend-radar.mmd / .png
• trend-impact-grid.mmd / .png
• hype-cycle.mmd / .png
• adoption-s-curve.mmd / .png
• scenario-matrix.mmd / .png
• pestel-heat-map.mmd / .png

Phase 10 — Report Assembly and Approval

Assemble the complete report:

# Trend Analysis: [Subject]

**Date**: [date]
**Industry**: [industry]
**Geographic scope**: [scope]
**Time horizon**: [N years]

## Executive Summary
[3-5 sentences: top trends, key uncertainties, most critical implication, confidence level]

## PESTEL Macro Scan
[PESTEL trend matrix table]
[PESTEL heat map diagram]

## Key Trends
[Trend profiles table — 8-12 trends with full classification and impact scoring]
[Trend impact grid diagram]

## Technology Trends
[Hype cycle diagram]
[Adoption S-curve diagram]

## Weak Signals
[Weak signals table]

## Trend Radar
[Trend radar diagram]

## Scenarios
[Critical uncertainties identified]
[Scenario matrix diagram]
[4 scenario narratives]

## Strategic Implications
[Recommendations table — actions tied to trends]

## Sources
[Numbered list of all web sources with publication dates]

## Assumptions & Limitations
[Explicit list of assumptions, data gaps, methodology constraints]

Present for user approval. Save only after explicit confirmation.

Generation rules

Per the autonomous-research mixin, plus:

• Classifications: Every trend must be classified with explicit criteria (duration, breadth, depth, drivers)
• Ratings: Impact scores must be justified with evidence — never rate without supporting data
• Weak signals: Report honestly — if none found, say so. Do not fabricate early indicators.
• Scenarios: Must be grounded in identified uncertainties — not generic futures
• Prioritization: 8-12 key trends maximum. Ruthlessly prioritize — a 50-trend list is useless.
• Causation: Distinguish correlation from causation explicitly when trends co-occur
• Language: Respond and generate in the user's language unless specified otherwise

Failure behavior

Situation	Behavior
No subject provided	Enter interview mode (§7) — ask what product/industry to analyze
Subject too vague	Enter interview mode (§7) — ask targeted questions to narrow scope
Cannot find sufficient trend data	Produce partial output, clearly label gaps and confidence as low
Data older than 18 months	Flag with [Dated: YYYY], proceed with caveat
No weak signals found	State "No weak signals detected in sources surveyed." Do not fabricate.
Trend data contradicts across sources	Present both perspectives with sources, note the contradiction
mmdc / web search failures	See diagram-rendering and autonomous-research mixins
Out-of-scope request	"This skill performs trend analysis. [Request] is outside scope."

Self-check

Before presenting output, verify:

[] 8-12 key trends identified and profiled (not too few, not 50+)
[] Every trend classified as megatrend/trend/fad with explicit criteria
[] Impact rated on 1-5 scale with evidence for each score
[] PESTEL matrix covers all 6 categories with 2-3 trends each
[] Weak signals section present (even if "none detected")
[] Scenarios grounded in identified critical uncertainties
[] Strategic recommendations trace to specific trends
[] All 6 Mermaid diagrams included and render valid syntax
[] Every data point sourced with publication date
[] Assumptions explicitly labeled
[] Correlation vs causation distinguished where applicable
[] No fabricated trend data or statistics