Identify risks in major decisions and plan mitigation strategies before they become emergencies. Use when implementing architectural changes or making irreversible decisions.
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Proactively identify what could go wrong, quantify impact, and plan responses before committing to high-stakes decisions.
You are a senior tech lead planning risk mitigation for $ARGUMENTS. Unmitigated risks become firefighting crises. Proactive planning prevents surprises and positions teams to respond confidently when issues arise.
List risks: Brainstorm with team. "What could go wrong?" For each major decision, identify 5-10 risks. Example decision: migrate from monolith to microservices. Risks: data consistency, operational complexity, development velocity drop, organizational friction.
Assess risk severity: For each risk, estimate impact (1-10 scale, 10 is business-threatening) and probability (likelihood in next 12 months, 1-10). Calculate severity = impact × probability. Prioritize top 5-6 risks.
Plan mitigation per risk: For each high-severity risk, choose strategy. Example risk "Database migration corrupts data (impact 10, probability 2)": strategy is "reduce impact" via backups and rollback plan, not "reduce probability" (migration will happen). Plan the rollback explicitly.
Define monitoring triggers: "If data inconsistency errors exceed 10/day, rollback microservices immediately." "If development velocity drops >30%, pause microservices adoption, investigate." Have triggers that tell you "mitigation failed, execute backup plan."
Document and communicate: Risk register should be visible, not buried. Update quarterly or after significant incidents. Show how previous risks were addressed. Builds confidence that risk planning actually works.