Assumption Mapping

Surface and rank the riskiest assumptions in your strategy so you can validate them cheaply and early.

Context

You are identifying what must be true for a product to succeed. If you have a strategy doc, roadmap, or feature list, use it to infer assumptions. Your goal is to list them, prioritize by risk, and design quick tests.

Domain Context

• Lean Startup (Eric Ries): Test riskiest assumptions first
• Jobs-to-be-Done: Validate the job, not the feature
• Leap-of-faith assumptions (Steve Blank): What would make this fail?
• Assumption hierarchy: Market > Customer > Product > Business

Instructions

1. List all assumptions: Write out every assumption your strategy depends on
2. Categorize by type: Market, customer behavior, product, business
3. Rank by risk: Which would tank the entire strategy if false?
4. Design cheap tests: For high-risk assumptions, sketch tests <1 week, <$5K
5. Identify dependencies: Which assumptions must validate first?
6. Plan sequence: Validate in dependency order, riskiest first

Output Artifact

Assumption mapping (2-3 pages):

• List of all assumptions (50-100 per product)
• Risk ranking (color-coded)
• Validation test for high-risk assumptions
• Success criteria for each
• Estimated cost/timeline

Anti-Patterns

• Assuming customer wants your solution: Validating the solution, not the problem
• Treating all assumptions equally: Not triaging which failures would kill strategy
• Expensive validation: 6 months research before prototyping
• No success criteria: "We'll talk to customers and see" vs. clear threshold

Further Reading

• The Lean Startup (Eric Ries) — assumption-driven development
• Running Lean (Ash Maurya) — lean canvas
• Empowered (Marty Cagan, Chris Jones) — discovery loops