Risk Assessment

When NOT to Use

• Security vulnerability detection (use /codex-security)
• Code correctness / lint / test review (use /codex-review-fast)
• Project-level health audit (use /project-audit)

Procedure

1. Run bash scripts/run-skill.sh risk-assess risk-analyze.js --json to collect deterministic scores
2. Parse the JSON output — overall_score, risk_level, dimensions, flags, gate, next_actions
3. If risk_level = Critical (score 75-100) — highlight all breaking signals, recommend splitting PRs
4. If risk_level = High (score 50-74) — auto-escalate to --mode deep, detail blast radius
5. If risk_level = Medium (score 30-49) — summarize dimensions, note areas of concern
6. If risk_level = Low (score 0-29) — brief summary, confirm safe to proceed
7. Add qualitative interpretation beyond the scores (e.g., "high blast radius but all dependents are test files")

Script Integration

The script analyzes 3 dimensions + 2 conditional flags:

Dimension	Weight	What It Measures
breaking_surface	45%	Removed exports, renamed APIs, changed signatures, deleted modules
blast_radius	35%	Number of files importing changed modules (grep-based)
change_scope	20%	File count, LOC delta, directory span, rename ratio

Flag	Trigger	What It Checks
migration_safety	Migration/schema files in diff	Rollback/down file exists
regression_hint	(v2 stub)	Future: git history analysis

Scoring Model

• Overall: breaking_surface * 0.45 + blast_radius * 0.35 + change_scope * 0.20
• Each dimension: 0-100 scale
• Overall: 0-100 scale

Risk Levels

Score	Level	Gate	Exit Code
0-29	Low	PASS	0
30-49	Medium	PASS	0
50-74	High	REVIEW	1
75-100	Critical	BLOCK	2

Script Failure Fallback

If the script fails, report the error and suggest running manually:

bash scripts/run-skill.sh risk-assess risk-analyze.js --json

Output Format

## Risk Assessment Report

| Field | Value |
|-------|-------|
| Score | **[N]/100** |
| Risk Level | [icon] [level] |
| Gate | [PASS/REVIEW/BLOCK] |

### Dimensions
[table of dimension scores + weights]

### Breaking Change Signals
[list of detected signals — only if any]

### Next Actions
[prioritized action items]

## Gate: [sentinel]

References

• references/risk-dimensions.md — Signal catalog, import patterns, scoring bands (read when investigating a specific dimension)
• references/output-template.md — JSON schema, report templates per risk level (read when customizing output)

Verification

• Script ran successfully
• All 3 dimensions scored
• Qualitative interpretation added beyond raw scores
• Next actions are actionable (include commands where applicable)
• Gate sentinel present in output