GTM Revenue Modeling

When to Use This Skill

• Building ARR/MRR revenue models
• Creating scenario plans (base/upside/downside)
• Constructing ARR waterfall analyses
• Multi-year revenue projections
• Capacity planning tied to revenue targets

Quick Reference

Revenue Model Types

Model	Use Case	Complexity
ARR Waterfall	Analyze YoY changes	Medium
Cohort Analysis	Track cohort performance	Medium
Scenario Planning	Model multiple outcomes	High
Bottoms-Up	Build from unit economics	High
Top-Down	Start from market size	Medium

ARR Waterfall Components

Component	Calculation
Beginning ARR	Prior period ending ARR
+ New Business	New logo ARR
+ Expansion	Upsell + Cross-sell
- Contraction	Downgrades
- Churn	Lost customers
= Ending ARR	Sum of above

Scenario Framework

Scenario	Probability	Use
Base	50%	Expected outcome
Upside	25%	Optimistic outcome
Downside	25%	Conservative outcome

Commands

/gtm-revenue-model --org <alias>           # Build model
/gtm-scenario --model <id> --type upside   # Generate scenario
/gtm-arr-waterfall --period 2026           # Create waterfall

ARR Waterfall Construction

Data Sources

Beginning ARR:
  source: Prior period Closed Won (Status = Active)
  calculation: SUM(ARR) WHERE ContractEndDate > PeriodStart

New Business:
  source: Opportunities (New Business Type)
  calculation: SUM(ARR) WHERE CloseDate IN Period AND IsWon

Expansion:
  source: Opportunities (Expansion Type)
  calculation: SUM(ARR) WHERE CloseDate IN Period AND IsWon AND Account.IsExisting

Contraction:
  source: Contract Modifications
  calculation: SUM(ARR_Decrease) WHERE EffectiveDate IN Period

Churn:
  source: Churned Accounts
  calculation: SUM(Lost_ARR) WHERE ChurnDate IN Period

SOQL Queries

-- Beginning ARR
SELECT SUM(AnnualContractValue__c)
FROM Contract
WHERE Status = 'Activated'
AND StartDate < 2026-01-01
AND EndDate >= 2026-01-01

-- New Business
SELECT SUM(Amount * 12 / Contract_Months__c) as ARR
FROM Opportunity
WHERE Type = 'New Business'
AND IsWon = true
AND CloseDate >= 2026-01-01 AND CloseDate < 2027-01-01

-- Expansion
SELECT SUM(Amount * 12 / Contract_Months__c) as ARR
FROM Opportunity
WHERE Type = 'Expansion'
AND IsWon = true
AND CloseDate >= 2026-01-01 AND CloseDate < 2027-01-01

Scenario Planning

Input Variables

Variable	Base	Upside	Downside
New Logo Win Rate	25%	30%	20%
Expansion Rate	15%	20%	10%
Churn Rate	10%	8%	15%
Average Deal Size	$50K	$60K	$40K
Sales Cycle (days)	90	75	110

Scenario Calculation

const calculateScenario = (inputs) => {
    const {
        beginningARR,
        newLeads,
        winRate,
        avgDealSize,
        expansionRate,
        churnRate
    } = inputs;

    const newBusiness = newLeads * winRate * avgDealSize;
    const expansion = beginningARR * expansionRate;
    const churn = beginningARR * churnRate;

    return {
        beginningARR,
        newBusiness,
        expansion,
        churn,
        endingARR: beginningARR + newBusiness + expansion - churn,
        netNewARR: newBusiness + expansion - churn,
        growthRate: (newBusiness + expansion - churn) / beginningARR
    };
};

Probability-Weighted Forecast

const weightedForecast = (base, upside, downside) => {
    return {
        expected: base * 0.50 + upside * 0.25 + downside * 0.25,
        range: { low: downside, high: upside }
    };
};

Multi-Year Projection

Year-Over-Year Model

const projectMultiYear = (year1, assumptions, years = 5) => {
    const projections = [year1];

    for (let i = 1; i < years; i++) {
        const prev = projections[i - 1];
        const year = {
            beginningARR: prev.endingARR,
            newBusiness: prev.newBusiness * (1 + assumptions.newBusinessGrowth),
            expansion: prev.endingARR * assumptions.expansionRate,
            churn: prev.endingARR * assumptions.churnRate
        };
        year.endingARR = year.beginningARR + year.newBusiness + year.expansion - year.churn;
        projections.push(year);
    }

    return projections;
};

Key Assumptions

Assumption	Typical Range	Source
New Business Growth	10-30% YoY	Pipeline analysis
Expansion Rate	10-20% of ARR	Historical performance
Churn Rate	5-15% of ARR	Cohort analysis
Sales Productivity	$500K-$1M/rep	Benchmark data

Capacity Planning

Rep Capacity Model

const calculateCapacity = (target, productivity) => {
    const {
        targetARR,
        avgProductivity,
        rampTime,
        attritionRate
    } = inputs;

    // Account for ramp and attrition
    const effectiveProductivity = avgProductivity * (1 - rampTime/12) * (1 - attritionRate/2);

    return {
        repsNeeded: Math.ceil(targetARR / effectiveProductivity),
        hiresNeeded: Math.ceil(targetARR / effectiveProductivity * (1 + attritionRate))
    };
};

Productivity Benchmarks

Role	Annual Quota	Typical Attainment
AE (Enterprise)	$800K-$1.2M	70-80%
AE (Mid-Market)	$500K-$800K	75-85%
AE (SMB)	$300K-$500K	80-90%
SDR (Meetings)	15-20/month	70-80%

Output Formats

Executive Summary

Revenue Model: FY2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Beginning ARR:    $10.0M
+ New Business:   $ 4.0M
+ Expansion:      $ 1.5M
- Churn:          $ 1.0M
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Ending ARR:       $14.5M
Growth Rate:      45%

Scenario Comparison

                Base     Upside   Downside
Beginning       $10.0M   $10.0M   $10.0M
New Business    $ 4.0M   $ 5.2M   $ 3.2M
Expansion       $ 1.5M   $ 2.0M   $ 1.0M
Churn           $ 1.0M   $ 0.8M   $ 1.5M
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Ending ARR      $14.5M   $16.4M   $12.7M
Growth          45%      64%      27%

Detailed Documentation

See supporting files:

• waterfall-construction.md - Detailed waterfall methodology
• scenario-templates.md - Scenario configuration templates
• benchmarks.md - Industry benchmark data