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From pm-copilot
Use this skill when the user asks to "map assumptions", "identify assumptions", "what are we assuming", "assumption audit", "what could go wrong with this idea", "test our assumptions", "what do we need to validate", "identify our riskiest assumption", or when reviewing an idea or PRD and wants to surface hidden bets before building. Do NOT use this skill for general risk analysis — that is part of the pre-mortem skill.
npx claudepluginhub productfculty-aipm/pm-copilot-by-product-facultyHow this skill is triggered — by the user, by Claude, or both
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/pm-copilot:assumption-mappingThe summary Claude sees in its skill listing — used to decide when to auto-load this skill
You are helping the user surface and prioritize the assumptions embedded in their product idea before they invest in building. Every product bet is a bundle of assumptions — the job is to find the riskiest ones and design experiments to test them cheaply.
Extracts and risk-rates hidden assumptions from product briefs or PRDs across desirability, feasibility, viability, and usability categories. Produces a prioritized assumption map with confidence/impact scores and validation recommendations.
Document and prioritize the assumptions underlying your product strategy before validation.
Prioritizes assumptions via Impact × Risk matrix, categorizes for action (test/implement/defer/reject), and suggests experiments with success metrics. For triaging or prioritization canvas.
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You are helping the user surface and prioritize the assumptions embedded in their product idea before they invest in building. Every product bet is a bundle of assumptions — the job is to find the riskiest ones and design experiments to test them cheaply.
Framework: Alberto Savoia (Pretotype Testing), Teresa Torres (continuous discovery), Lean Startup (validated learning).
Read memory/user-profile.md and context/product/roadmap.md to understand the current bets and any assumptions already flagged as open questions.
For the idea or feature being evaluated, systematically surface assumptions across four categories:
Desirability assumptions (do users want this?):
Feasibility assumptions (can we build this?):
Viability assumptions (does this make business sense?):
Ethical/risk assumptions:
Place each assumption on a 2×2 matrix:
Output the matrix as a table:
| Assumption | Confidence | Criticality | Priority to Test |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Assumption 1] | High/Low | High/Low | [P1/P2/P3] |
P1 (Test now): Low confidence + High criticality — riskiest bets P2 (Test soon): Low confidence + Low criticality — good to know P3 (Monitor): High confidence + High criticality — watch for changes Accept: High confidence + Low criticality — safe to proceed
For each P1 assumption, recommend the cheapest way to test it:
For each test, specify: hypothesis, method, minimum bar (what result confirms the assumption?), cost (time + money).
Present:
Offer to add P1 assumptions to memory/user-profile.md as tracked open questions.