archetype-detection

Archetype Detection

Overview

Sequoia's PMF framework names three startup archetypes — Hair on Fire, Hard Fact, Future Vision. The archetype determines:

• Which Q-skill content applies (operating priorities differ per archetype).
• What refusal thresholds operate (Hair on Fire founders move faster; Future Vision founders need endurance evidence over conversation-count evidence).
• What rationalizations are most common at each stage.

The archetype is not a property of the company. It's a property of the buyer-cohort × pain × moment. A startup can be Hard Fact at the platform level and Hair on Fire inside one vertical. Pick the dominant one for the wedge ICP at hand.

The Iron Rule

NO Q-SKILL ADVANCES WITHOUT ARCHETYPE + REASONING ON RECORD

If the founder hasn't declared an archetype, this skill is the only one the agent runs. Q1-Q4 are blocked until archetype is on record.

The three archetypes (Sequoia, verbatim where quoted)

Hair on Fire

"You solve a problem that's a clear, urgent need for customers. The demand is obvious."

Examples (illustrative, not Sequoia-named): Wiz (CISOs needing vuln remediation this quarter), Rippling (HR teams needing consolidation today).

Operating priority (Sequoia, verbatim fragment): "...both a great product and a great go-to-market effort — in quick succession." (The Hair on Fire path requires both, per Sequoia article 1.)

Signal: Prospects ask "when can I have it" inside the first conversation. Demos convert to paid pilots in days, not months. Customers walk through walls to find you.

Anti-signal: "Interesting, tell me more" is the opposite of Hair on Fire. If you have to explain why this matters, you're not in this category.

Hard Fact

"You take a pain point universally accepted as a hard fact of life, and see that it's merely a hard problem that your product solves for the customer."

Examples (Square and HubSpot named by Sequoia; Uber illustrative): Square/Block (small merchants accepting they couldn't take cards), HubSpot (small businesses accepting they couldn't afford enterprise marketing), Uber (everyone accepting taxis were broken).

Operating priority (Sequoia, verbatim fragment): "...first educating the market, and then capturing the opportunity." (The Hard Fact path requires this, per Sequoia article 1.)

Signal: Prospects say "huh, I'd never thought of that as a solvable problem" or "I'd accepted that as the cost of doing business." Long sales cycles with category-education first.

Anti-signal: If prospects already know they want a solution and are evaluating vendors, you're competing in an established category — that's not Hard Fact.

Future Vision

"You enable a new reality through visionary innovation. It sounds like science fiction to customers."

Examples: Nvidia, OpenAI, Apple (iPhone, Vision Pro).

Operating priority (Sequoia, verbatim fragment): "...endurance and the ability to attract and retain top talent for the long haul." (Taking the Future Vision path requires this, per Sequoia article 1.)

Signal: Prospects say "wait, you do what?" or "this would be amazing if it actually worked." Multi-year time-to-PMF normal.

Anti-signal: Reality already permits what you're building. If the product is technically possible today with off-the-shelf parts, it's not visionary — it's an execution play.

Failure mode (Sequoia, named): "Too early." Google Glass spent 11 years without mainstream adoption.

Determination rubric

Ask the founder these in order. The pattern of answers determines archetype.

1. What's the prospect's first reaction when you describe the problem you solve?

   • "When can I have it?" → Hair on Fire candidate.
   • "Huh, I'd never thought of that as solvable" → Hard Fact candidate.
   • "Wait, you do what?" → Future Vision candidate.

2. What's the alternative the prospect uses today?

   • Inferior tool, expensive consultant, or workaround they hate → Hair on Fire (if actively shopping) or Hard Fact (if they've stopped looking).
   • Nothing — the problem is currently impossible → Future Vision.

3. What's the sales cycle length you've observed (or estimate)?

   • Days to weeks → Hair on Fire.
   • Months to a year → Hard Fact (educating first).
   • Multi-year → Future Vision.

4. What's the category status?

   • Established competitive category → revisit. Better-mousetrap plays are not Hair on Fire. They might be Hard Fact if you're reframing what "solving X" means.
   • No category exists → Future Vision or Hard Fact, depending on whether the underlying technology is mature.

Output to record

Write the archetype determination to the session as:

Archetype: <Hair on Fire | Hard Fact | Future Vision>
Reasoning:
  - Prospect-reaction evidence: <quote one verbatim>
  - Alternative-they-use: <name>
  - Cycle-length evidence: <observed range>
  - Category status: <established | reframe | new>
Operating priority: <Sequoia's verbatim priority for this archetype>
Determined: <date>
Wedge ICP: <one sentence — the specific buyer-cohort × pain × moment this applies to>

Without this on record, no Q-skill advances.

Common mistakes

Mistake	Reality
"We're all three depending on the customer"	Pick the dominant one for the wedge ICP. Multi-archetype = no archetype = no clarity. Run the rubric again with one specific buyer-cohort in mind.
"Skip ahead, archetype doesn't matter for Q1"	Q1's resolution criterion ("marry the idea for a decade-plus") tunes differently per archetype. Future Vision Q1 takes longer than Hair on Fire Q1. It matters.
"I'll determine archetype later after I think about it"	Determination IS the thinking. Walk through the rubric.
"Future Vision feels best — it's the most ambitious"	Visionary self-positioning kills more startups than it builds. Pick what the prospect data supports, not what you wish were true.
"We're between Hard Fact and Hair on Fire"	If you have to pick, pick Hard Fact and treat it as the conservative default. The Sequoia operating priority for Hard Fact (educate-then-capture) is the safer playbook. Re-test in 90 days.

When to re-run

Re-run archetype-detection when:

• You pivot to a new buyer-cohort.
• Prospect reactions change materially over 10+ conversations.
• You enter a new vertical (verticals can have different archetypes than the platform-level company).
• The cycle-length you've observed diverges from your initial archetype assignment.

Cross-references

• After determination, route to arc-q1-right-to-exist if Q1 is unresolved, or arc-q2-do-people-care if Q1 is resolved.
• If the founder is rationalizing about archetype ("we're all three"), invoke founder-rationalization-defense.
• If the founder claims an archetype without the rubric evidence, invoke refuse-below-threshold.