prediction-markets-analysis

Prediction Markets Analysis

Use this skill for Kalshi event research and historical prediction market analysis.

When to use

• The user shares a Kalshi market URL
• The user wants a structured report on one prediction market event
• The user wants event history across snapshots or runs

Query format

Generate a report for the Kalshi market <KALSHI_URL>.

For structured history retrieval:

Fetch historical data for the Kalshi event ticker <EVENT_TICKER>.

MCP calls

Report generation:

{
  "server": "octagon-mcp",
  "toolName": "octagon-prediction-markets-agent",
  "arguments": {
    "prompt": "Generate a report for the Kalshi market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcy/btc-price-range-eoy/kxbtcy-27jan0100"
  }
}

Structured history:

{
  "server": "octagon-mcp",
  "toolName": "prediction_markets_history",
  "arguments": {
    "event_ticker": "KXBTCY-27JAN0100",
    "limit": 50,
    "include_analysis": true
  }
}

Tool selection rules

• Use octagon-prediction-markets-agent for analyst-style reports
• Use prediction_markets_history for structured history, pagination, or time filtering
• If the user wants guaranteed fresh data, set cache to false

Output expectations

• Compare model probability to market probability
• Highlight edge, expected return, and risk factors
• Surface missing Kalshi URL immediately when absent

Follow-up prompts

• "Refresh the report instead of using cache."
• "Show the event history with analysis included."
• "Summarize the largest drivers of divergence between model and market."