From forwward-teams
Models unit economics (LTV/CAC, payback), calculates burn rate and runway, forecasts revenue bottom-up, analyzes pricing, and builds 24-month financial projections for startups.
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Know your numbers. Every dollar in, every dollar out, every dollar you'll need.
Builds monthly financial projections including revenue forecasts, expense modeling, unit economics (CAC, LTV, payback), break-even analysis, cash flow tracking, and best/base/worst scenarios for SaaS and other businesses.
Builds SaaS financial models, calculates unit economics (MRR/ARR/churn/CAC/LTV), burn rate, cash flow, and quit number for non-finance founders.
Builds 3-5 year financial models for startups with cohort-based revenue projections, operating expense breakdowns, cash flow analysis, burn rate, runway, and headcount planning.
Share bugs, ideas, or general feedback.
Know your numbers. Every dollar in, every dollar out, every dollar you'll need.
| Metric | Formula | Healthy Range |
|---|---|---|
| CAC | Total acquisition spend / new customers | Depends on LTV |
| LTV | ARPU × gross margin × avg lifespan (months) | LTV > 3× CAC |
| LTV:CAC | LTV / CAC | 3:1 to 5:1 |
| Payback period | CAC / (ARPU × gross margin) | < 12 months |
| Gross margin | (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue | > 70% for SaaS |
| Net revenue retention | (Start MRR + expansion - contraction - churn) / Start MRR | > 100% |
| Burn multiple | Net burn / net new ARR | < 2× good, < 1× great |
Rules:
Monthly burn = monthly expenses - monthly revenue
Runway (months) = cash in bank / monthly burn
| Runway | Action |
|---|---|
| 18+ months | Comfortable. Invest in growth. |
| 12-18 months | Start fundraising conversations. |
| 6-12 months | Cut non-essential spend. Raise urgently. |
| < 6 months | Survival mode. Cut to break-even or close. |
Track weekly: Cash balance, burn rate, revenue. No surprises.
Monthly revenue = active customers × ARPU
Customer growth = new customers - churned customers
New customers = leads × conversion rate
TAM × achievable market share = revenue potential
Never forecast top-down to investors. They'll ask how you get there. Bottom-up shows the engine.
| Question | How to Answer |
|---|---|
| What should I charge? | 10× the value delivered, or anchor to alternatives |
| Should I raise prices? | If <5% of prospects mention price as objection, yes |
| Free tier? | Only if virality/network effects justify it |
| Annual discount? | 15-20% discount for annual. Improves cash flow + retention |
| Per-seat vs usage? | Per-seat if value scales with people. Usage if value scales with volume. |
Build a 24-month model with these tabs:
| Tab | Contents |
|---|---|
| Revenue | MRR by cohort, expansion, churn, net new |
| Costs | People, infra, tools, marketing, G&A |
| Headcount | By function, with start dates and salaries |
| Cash | Opening balance, revenue, expenses, closing balance, runway |
| Metrics | CAC, LTV, burn multiple, gross margin, NRR |
Rules:
| Mistake | Reality |
|---|---|
| Ignoring COGS | SaaS COGS = hosting + support + payment processing |
| Counting revenue before collection | Cash ≠ bookings ≠ revenue. Know the difference. |
| Hiring ahead of revenue | Every hire adds ~12 months of burn commitment |
| No scenario planning | "Plan for the best, model for the worst" |
| Forgetting payment processing fees | Stripe takes 2.9% + 30¢. At scale, this matters. |