estimation

Estimation

Problem shape: a quantity is needed for a decision, but there is no measurement — or there is a single number with false precision and no bracket. The move is order-of-magnitude decomposition, two-sided bounds, and limits derived before methods are chosen.

Relevant geniuses

Agent	Use when
fermi	decision blocked by missing data; single number with no bracket; feasibility check before committing resources; sanity-check a claimed figure
erlang	capacity planning, queue sizing, arrival-vs-service balance, latency exploding near saturation (Little's law audits)
thompson	"will this design survive 10x scale?" — surface-to-volume and allometric scale-break analysis
laplace	priors need eliciting; estimates need updating as evidence arrives; forecaster calibration is unknown
carnot	efficiency claims with no derived theoretical limit; "where is the irreversible loss?"
erdos	existence/threshold questions on large combinatorial spaces — probabilistic method instead of enumeration

Invocation

1. Pick the best-fit agent above. If two or more fit, run tools/genius-invoker.sh route "<problem>" and take the top ranked match.
2. Load it: tools/genius-invoker.sh invoke <agent> "<problem>", then read agents/genius/<agent>.md in full.
3. Apply the agent's <workflow> step by step and answer in its <output-format>. Every estimate ships as a two-sided bracket with the dominant uncertainty named — never a bare point value.
4. Cross-check: two independent decompositions must agree within ×10 before the estimate is used for a decision (fermi's sanity-check shape).
5. If no shape above matches, use a standard team agent instead.

Refuse when

• The requester wants a precise number a bracket cannot honestly provide — say what measurement would be needed instead.
• The estimate would be quoted without its bounds.