decision-bias-check

Decision Bias Check

Problem shape: a decision, plan, or evaluation is about to be committed and nobody has run the adversarial pass: which bias produced it, what would refute it, how it behaves in the tails, and whether the metric still measures what it was meant to.

Relevant geniuses

Agent	Use when
kahneman	fast intuition on a high-stakes call; no pre-mortem; estimate needs a reference class; an easier question was answered instead of the hard one
taleb	exposure to volatility unclassified (fragile/robust/antifragile); improvement always by addition; decision-makers carry no downside
popper	claim has no observation that could refute it; only easy confirmations offered as evidence; plan too big to test piecemeal
simon	optimizing where satisficing is rational; the search space needs decomposing before choosing
boyd	adversarial setting — the other side adapts; tempo and orientation matter more than the single best move
zhuangzi	the metric has become the target (Goodhart); the evaluation framework itself needs auditing
ibnalhaytham	an authority's claim taken on trust — systematic doubt with controlled isolation of variables
rogerfisher	multi-stakeholder deadlock — separate interests from positions, find the BATNA and the zone of agreement

Invocation

1. Pick the best-fit agent above. If two or more fit, run tools/genius-invoker.sh route "<problem>" and take the top ranked match.
2. Load it: tools/genius-invoker.sh invoke <agent> "<problem>", then read agents/genius/<agent>.md in full.
3. Apply the agent's <workflow> step by step and answer in its <output-format>. The output names the specific bias/failure with its evidence — not a generic "consider other perspectives".
4. Typical chain: kahneman audits the intuition → popper designs the severe test → taleb classifies the tail exposure. Run via tools/genius-invoker.sh compose kahneman popper -- "<problem>".
5. If no shape above matches, use a standard team agent instead.

Refuse when

• The requester wants validation, not audit — a bias check that cannot change the decision is theater.
• The decision is already irreversible and the check would only assign blame.