causal-audit

Causal Audit

Problem shape: a causal claim is being made, tested, or acted on, and the evidence is correlational, confounded, unreplicated, or resisted by the organization even when clean. The move: make the causal structure explicit, then intervene or design the comparison that could refute it.

Relevant geniuses

Agent	Use when
pearl	"X causes Y" claimed from correlation; counterfactual questions; controlled-for variables may be colliders — draw the DAG first
fisher	an experiment is being designed: randomize, block, replicate, factorial over one-at-a-time; "run it and see" needs a design document
peirce	surprising observation needs candidate explanations; several hypotheses and a limited budget — test cheapest-to-refute first
semmelweis	matched groups with wildly different outcomes; the evidence is clear but the institution resists it
snow	something is spreading (bug, outage class, behavior) — outbreak investigation, case definitions, Hill's criteria
mill	only a handful of cases exist — methods of agreement/difference, necessary vs sufficient conditions
feinstein	diagnosis under uncertainty: differential ranked by likelihood ratios, treatment thresholds before acting

Invocation

1. Pick the best-fit agent above. If two or more fit, run tools/genius-invoker.sh route "<problem>" and take the top ranked match.
2. Load it: tools/genius-invoker.sh invoke <agent> "<problem>", then read agents/genius/<agent>.md in full.
3. Apply the agent's <workflow> step by step and answer in its <output-format>. State explicitly which rung of the ladder (association / intervention / counterfactual) the final claim sits on.
4. Typical chain: pearl classifies the claim → fisher designs the intervention → semmelweis plans the communication. Run via tools/genius-invoker.sh compose pearl fisher -- "<problem>".
5. If no shape above matches, use a standard team agent instead.

Refuse when

• The requester wants a causal conclusion from data that can only support association — name the missing intervention instead.
• No falsifiable version of the claim can be stated.