apsr-theory-building

Theory & Argument Building (apsr-theory-building)

At APSR a result is not a contribution until it is attached to an argument the discipline can use elsewhere. This skill turns findings into theory: explicit mechanisms, scope conditions, and observable implications, in the idiom appropriate to your kind of work.

When to trigger

• The empirics are strong but the "so what / why" is thin
• A reviewer said the paper is "atheoretical," "ad hoc," or "just a finding"
• You need to state mechanisms, assumptions, and scope conditions explicitly
• Formal modeling: deciding what to model, what to assume, and what the model buys you

Build the argument (by mode of work)

Empirical paper with a theory

1. Concept — define the key constructs precisely; distinguish from neighbors.
2. Mechanism — the causal story: who does what, why, under what incentives/constraints.
3. Observable implications — what we should see if the mechanism operates (and what we should not see). These become the tests in apsr-research-design.
4. Scope conditions — where the argument holds and where it does not. Portability ≠ universality.

Formal / game-theoretic paper

• State the substantive puzzle the model addresses before the setup.
• Keep assumptions transparent and motivated; flag which results are robust to which assumptions.
• Translate equilibrium predictions into comparative statics a reader can test or recognize.
• Say what the model buys: a non-obvious prediction, a resolution of a puzzle, a unifying logic.

Interpretive / normative paper

• Make the conceptual or normative stakes explicit and connect them to political life.
• Build the argument through reasons and texts, not hypotheses; engage the strongest counter-view.
• Show what the argument lets the field see or justify that it could not before.

The "portability" test (APSR-specific)

Ask: Could a scholar in another subfield import this mechanism/concept to their own problem? If yes, you have a discipline-level contribution. If the argument only works for your exact case, tighten it into a general logic or reframe (back to apsr-topic-selection).

Anti-patterns

• "Hypothesizing after results are known" (HARKing) — state theory before tests; preregister where possible
• A model with opaque assumptions chosen to produce the desired result
• Mechanisms named but never made observable
• Universal claims with no scope conditions
• Burying the argument under the empirics — the contribution paragraph must state it plainly

Output format

【Core claim】one sentence
【Mechanism】the causal/logical story
【Assumptions】(formal) the load-bearing ones
【Observable implications】testable consequences → research-design
【Scope conditions】where it holds / fails
【Portability】who else can use this argument
【Next】apsr-research-design

Supplementary resources

• ../../resources/external_tools.md — formal-modeling and analysis tooling
• ../../resources/official-source-map.md — APSR scope and contribution expectations