From aej-macroeconomics-skills
Guides empirical identification of macro shocks for AEJ: Macro manuscripts — SVAR, local projections, narrative, high-frequency/proxy-VAR, and micro-data macro designs.
How this skill is triggered — by the user, by Claude, or both
Slash command
/aej-macroeconomics-skills:aejmac-identificationThe summary Claude sees in its skill listing — used to decide when to auto-load this skill
- The macro effect rests on a recursive (Cholesky) SVAR with no defense of the ordering
AEJ: Macro publishes identified-empirical macro, so the mapping from data to the dynamic causal object (an impulse response, a multiplier, a pass-through) must be explicit and defended. The aggregate, time-series setting makes identification harder than in micro: few effective observations, anticipation, simultaneity, and structural breaks. State the shock you claim to identify, the assumption that delivers it, and the horizon and object you report. Report standard errors / confidence bands (the AEA house style; significance asterisks are conventional in AEA tables but the band/SE must carry the inference, not the stars).
A paper estimates the output response to monetary policy via a recursive SVAR ordered output → prices → policy rate. A referee says the ordering is indefensible at high frequency. The AEJ: Macro fix: replace (or corroborate) the recursive shock with a high-frequency surprise from a tight window around FOMC announcements, purged of the information effect by orthogonalizing against Greenbook/SPF forecasts, then feed it as an external instrument in a proxy-VAR or as the shock in local projections. Suppose the peak output response stabilizes at -0.6% (90% band [-1.0, -0.2]) and is robust across the SVAR-IV and LP implementations — that cross-method agreement is the identification argument.
【Branch】SVAR / LP / narrative-HF / cross-sectional-macro
【Shock + data-to-IRF mapping】one sentence
【Identifying assumption】ordering / sign set / exogeneity / GE mapping
【Inference】bands/SEs; weak-IV-robust if relevant; HAC/cluster choice
【Object + horizon reported】...
【What it does NOT identify】...
【Next step】aejmac-robustness (then aejmac-theory-model if a model is matched to this)
npx claudepluginhub brycewang-stanford/awesome-journal-skills --plugin aej-macroeconomics-skillsGuides identification strategy design for Journal of Monetary Economics manuscripts, covering high-frequency surprises, proxy-SVAR, narrative shocks, local projections, sign restrictions, and model-based identification.
Helps refine identification arguments for JMCB manuscripts: macro shock identification (SVAR, narrative, high-frequency), parameter identification in monetary/banking models, and micro-banking causal designs.
Guides identification strategy for IMF Economic Review manuscripts: cross-country panels, high-frequency policy surprises, crisis event studies, and narrative identification.