Second-Order Thinking

Most people only consider first-order effects. Second-order thinkers ask "And then what?" repeatedly to see the full cascade of consequences.

Why It Matters

• First-order thinking: "This action has this effect"
• Second-order thinking: "That effect causes these other effects"
• Third-order thinking: "Those effects cause these further effects"

Many disasters come from ignoring second-order effects. Many opportunities come from seeing them.

Process

1. Identify the decision or action
2. List immediate (first-order) effects
3. For each, ask "And then what?"
4. Continue to third-order if significant
5. Look for unintended consequences
6. Identify feedback loops

Output Format

## Second-Order Analysis: [Decision/Action]

### The Action
[What's being considered]

### First-Order Effects (Immediate)
| Effect | Who's Affected | Magnitude |
|--------|---------------|-----------|
| [Effect 1] | [Who] | [High/Med/Low] |
| [Effect 2] | [Who] | [High/Med/Low] |
| [Effect 3] | [Who] | [High/Med/Low] |

### Second-Order Effects (And then what?)

**From [Effect 1]:**
- → [Consequence A]
- → [Consequence B]

**From [Effect 2]:**
- → [Consequence C]
- → [Consequence D]

**From [Effect 3]:**
- → [Consequence E]
- → [Consequence F]

### Third-Order Effects (Further downstream)
- [Longer-term consequence 1]
- [Longer-term consequence 2]

### Unintended Consequences
| Consequence | Desirable? | Preventable? |
|-------------|-----------|--------------|
| [Consequence] | [Yes/No] | [Yes/No/Partially] |

### Feedback Loops Identified
**Reinforcing (amplifying):**
- [Loop description]

**Balancing (dampening):**
- [Loop description]

### Timeline
| Timeframe | Key Effects |
|-----------|-------------|
| Immediate | [Effects] |
| 1-3 months | [Effects] |
| 6-12 months | [Effects] |
| 1+ years | [Effects] |

### Net Assessment
[Considering all orders of effects, is this a good decision?]

Common Second-Order Effects

Incentive changes:

• First: Reward behavior X
• Second: People optimize for X at expense of Y

Competition response:

• First: We do something successful
• Second: Competitors copy or counter

Adaptation:

• First: New rule or constraint
• Second: People find workarounds

Resource reallocation:

• First: Invest in A
• Second: Less available for B

The Question Cascade

1. "If we do this, what happens?"
2. "And then what?"
3. "And then what?"
4. "Who else is affected?"
5. "How will they respond?"
6. "And then what?"

Apply to user's decision immediately.