/str-revenue

Short-Term Rental Revenue Projection

ARGUMENTS: Optional property address or market name

Instructions

When this command is invoked, project short-term rental revenue and compare to long-term rental:

1. Load Reference Material

Read the property types reference for STR guidance: the references/property-types.md file from the real-estate-investment skill in this plugin

2. Collect Property Details

Use AskUserQuestion to gather (skip if provided via ARGUMENTS):

Property Characteristics:

• Location (city, neighborhood)
• Property type (entire home, condo, unique property)
• Bedrooms and bathrooms
• Square footage
• Notable amenities (pool, hot tub, waterfront, etc.)

Comparable Data:

• Average nightly rate (from Airbnb/VRBO comps or AirDNA)
• Check for MCP tools: AirDNA server for market data
• If no MCP available, guide user to research comps manually

3. Model Seasonal Revenue

Create month-by-month revenue projection:

Define Seasons:

• Peak season months (highest demand)
• Shoulder season months (moderate demand)
• Off-peak season months (lowest demand)

Seasonal Variations:

• ADR (Average Daily Rate) by season:

  • Peak: Base ADR × 1.2-1.4
  • Shoulder: Base ADR × 1.0
  • Off-peak: Base ADR × 0.7-0.85

• Occupancy rate by season:

  • Peak: 75-85%
  • Shoulder: 60-70%
  • Off-peak: 40-55%

Monthly Revenue Calculation:

Monthly Revenue = ADR × Occupancy Rate × Days in Month

Annual Gross Revenue:

Sum of all monthly revenues

4. Calculate Platform Fees and Expenses

Platform Fees:

• Airbnb host fee: ~3% (or 15.5% for simplified pricing)
• VRBO annual subscription or per-booking fee: ~5-8%
• Average total platform fees: 5-10% of gross revenue

STR-Specific Operating Expenses:

• Cleaning: Per-turnover cost × estimated turnovers (occupancy × 30 / avg stay)
• Supplies: Toiletries, coffee, consumables (~2-3% of revenue)
• Utilities: Electric, water, gas, internet (~8-12% of revenue, higher than LTR)
• Property management: 20-25% of revenue (if using STR management company)
• Maintenance: 5-8% of revenue (higher wear and tear than LTR)
• Insurance: STR-specific policy (typically 50-100% higher than LTR landlord policy)
• HOA/Licensing: HOA fees, STR license, business license
• Furnishing amortization: Initial furnishing cost amortized over 3-5 years
• Marketing: Photography, listing optimization (~$500-1,000 annually)

Total STR Expenses: Typically 50-60% of gross revenue (compared to 30-40% for LTR)

Net Operating Income (NOI):

NOI = Gross Revenue - Platform Fees - Operating Expenses

5. Compare STR vs LTR

Long-Term Rental Baseline:

• Research comparable LTR monthly rent for the property
• LTR annual gross income: Monthly Rent × 12
• LTR operating expenses: ~30-40% of gross income
• LTR NOI: Gross Income × (1 - Expense Ratio)

Break-Even Occupancy Analysis:

Break-Even Occupancy = (LTR Annual NOI + STR Fixed Costs) / (Average ADR × 365 - Variable Cost per Night)

This shows the minimum occupancy needed for STR to outperform LTR.

Comparison Table:

Metric	STR	LTR	Difference
Annual Gross Income
Operating Expenses
Net Operating Income
Management Intensity	High	Low
Regulatory Risk	High	Low

6. Present Monthly Revenue Projection

Generate detailed month-by-month table:

Month	ADR	Occupancy	Days	Gross Revenue	Platform Fees	Net Revenue
Jan			31
Feb			28
...
Dec			31
Total			365

7. Calculate Annual Summary

Annual Performance:

• Total gross revenue
• Total platform fees
• Total operating expenses (with breakdown)
• Net operating income
• Average occupancy rate (annual)
• Revenue per available night (RevPAN)

STR vs LTR Net Income:

• STR advantage: $X more per year (+Y%)
• Break-even occupancy: Z%
• Current projected occupancy: Z%

8. Risk Factors and Recommendations

Highlight key considerations:

• Regulatory risk: Check local STR regulations, zoning, HOA rules
• Seasonality: Cash flow variance month-to-month
• Management burden: Time commitment or management cost
• Competition: Saturation in market (# of STR listings per capita)
• Financing: Many lenders restrict STR properties or charge higher rates

Recommendation:

• Proceed with STR if: occupancy projections are conservative, regulation is stable, investor can handle management
• Consider LTR if: slim STR margin, regulatory uncertainty, passive income preference

9. Offer Enhanced Analysis

Ask if user wants:

• Python script for dynamic STR revenue modeling with custom inputs
• Detailed sensitivity analysis (vary ADR and occupancy)
• Market comparison against other STR-friendly markets

Notes

• Verify local STR regulations before finalizing recommendation
• Consider split strategy: STR in peak season, LTR lease in off-season (if allowed)
• Flag if market shows signs of STR saturation (declining ADR, increasing supply)
• Note that lender STR income projections often use 75% of gross revenue for qualification