From us-stock-analysis
Analyzes US economic indicators (GDP, employment, CPI/PCE/PPI, Fed policy, yield curves) and their impacts on markets, sectors, recession risks, and investments.
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Analyze US economic conditions and their implications for investment decisions.
Generates macro-economic dashboards with GDP, CPI, unemployment, interest rates, Treasury yields, trade balance, and events calendar from EODHD APIs. For economy and macro trend queries.
Analyzes US S&P 500 sectors for performance, economic cycles, fundamentals, and rotation opportunities. Outputs rankings, recommendations, stock picks, and standardized investment signals.
Produces market cycle positioning reports using Mueller Real Estate Cycle model for CRE property types. Analyzes cycle timing, cap rates, transactions, sentiment for buy/sell/hold recommendations across horizons.
Share bugs, ideas, or general feedback.
Analyze US economic conditions and their implications for investment decisions.
Growth Indicators
Inflation Metrics
Monetary Policy
Market Sentiment
Fiscal Policy
| Spread | Definition | Current | 1-Year Avg | 10-Year Avg | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2s10s | 10yr Treasury minus 2yr Treasury | ||||
| 3M10Y | 10yr Treasury minus 3-Month T-Bill | ||||
| 5s30s | 30yr Treasury minus 5yr Treasury |
3M10Y is the historically strongest recession predictor (NY Fed model is based on this spread).
| Shape | Description | Economic Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Normal (Steep) | Long-term rates well above short-term rates | Healthy growth expectations, bank margins expanding |
| Flat | Short and long-term rates near parity | Late-cycle signal, growth slowing, Fed near peak |
| Inverted | Short-term rates above long-term rates | Recession warning — markets pricing in rate cuts ahead |
| Bear Steepening | Both ends rise, long end rises faster | Inflation concern, term premium expanding |
| Bull Steepening | Both ends fall, short end falls faster | Cutting cycle underway, growth relief expected |
Historical precedent for 3M10Y inversion:
| Inversion Duration | Historical Recession Lead Time |
|---|---|
| < 3 months | Unreliable signal |
| 3–6 months | 12–18 months typically |
| 6–12 months | 6–15 months typically |
| > 12 months | High confidence; within 12 months |
Rule of thumb: Yield curve uninversion (re-steepening after inversion) is often the more immediate warning — recession tends to arrive shortly after the curve re-steepens from inversion.
| Spread Level | Condition | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| < 100 bps | Normal | Risk appetite healthy, credit markets functioning |
| 100–150 bps | Caution | Stress emerging, watch for tightening conditions |
| > 150 bps | Stress | Credit markets seizing, risk-off, watch equities |
| Spread Level | Condition | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| < 350 bps | Normal | Benign default environment, strong risk appetite |
| 350–500 bps | Caution | Elevated risk aversion, avoid lower-quality credits |
| > 500 bps | Distress | Recession/financial stress scenario, significant HY risk |
| > 800 bps | Crisis | Systemic credit event risk, similar to 2008/2020 episodes |
Rule: HY spreads lead equity markets by 2–4 weeks on average. Widening HY spreads while equities hold = warning signal.
| Economy | Current Phase | GDP Growth | Inflation | Policy Stance | Equity Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | |||||
| Eurozone | |||||
| China | |||||
| Japan | |||||
| UK |
Economic cycle phases: Early Expansion → Mid Expansion → Late Expansion → Contraction → Recovery
| Country/Region | PMI Index | Last Reading | Trend | Above/Below 50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | ISM Mfg | |||
| US | ISM Services | |||
| Eurozone | Markit Mfg | |||
| Eurozone | Markit Svcs | |||
| China | Caixin Mfg | |||
| China | Official PMI |
Rule: PMI above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Composite PMI below 48 for 2+ months is recessionary signal.
| Central Bank | Current Rate | Last Move | Next Expected Move | Cycle Phase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve (Fed) | ||||
| European Central Bank (ECB) | ||||
| Bank of Japan (BOJ) | ||||
| Bank of England (BOE) | ||||
| People's Bank of China (PBOC) |
Divergence signals:
| DXY Direction | US Multinational Earnings | Commodities | Emerging Markets | Domestic US Small-Caps |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strengthening (rising DXY) | Headwind (FX translation) | Bearish | Bearish (USD-denominated debt stress) | Relative outperform |
| Weakening (falling DXY) | Tailwind | Bullish | Bullish | Relative underperform |
Based on the 3M10Y yield curve spread, the NY Fed publishes a monthly recession probability for the next 12 months.
| Probability Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| 0–10% | Expansion — very low recession risk |
| 10–25% | Low risk — monitor indicators |
| 25–50% | Elevated — caution warranted |
| 50–75% | High risk — recession likely within 12 months |
| > 75% | Near-certain — defensive positioning required |
Current NY Fed reading: ____%
The LEI composite combines 10 leading indicators across financial markets, labor, manufacturing, and consumer expectations.
Current LEI trend: Rising / Flat / Declining
Sahm Rule Indicator = Current 3-month average unemployment rate minus the minimum of the 3-month average unemployment rate over the prior 12 months.
Current Sahm Indicator reading: ____
Scoring model combining: Yield curve signal + LEI trend + Sahm Rule + Credit spreads + PMI momentum
| Zone | Score Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion | 0–25% | Risk-on appropriate; cyclicals, growth outperform |
| Caution | 25–50% | Balanced positioning; reduce cyclical overweights |
| High Risk | 50–75% | Defensive rotation; increase quality, reduce leverage |
| Near-Certain | 75–100% | Full defensive posture; cash, defensives, short vol |
Historical recession episodes and leading indicators:
| Recession | Yield Curve Inversion | LEI Decline | Sahm Trigger | S&P 500 Peak-to-Trough |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 (Dot-com) | 2000 | Yes | Yes | −49% |
| 2008 (GFC) | 2006–2007 | Yes | Yes | −57% |
| 2020 (COVID) | 2019 | Yes | Yes | −34% |
| 2022–2023 | 2022–2023 | Yes | No (so far) | −25% (bear market) |
Deliver concise economic assessment with:
All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║ INVESTMENT SIGNAL ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ Signal: BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH ║
║ Confidence: HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW ║
║ Horizon: SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM ║
║ Score: X.X / 10 ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ Action: BUY / HOLD / SELL ║
║ Conviction: STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals) Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)