Autonomous financial forecasting with revenue, expense, cash flow, P&L projections, and unit economics. Supports multiple methods (straight-line, driver-based, bottom-up, top-down). Scenario modeling and sensitivity analysis with Mermaid diagrams and optional PNG export.
npx claudepluginhub ssiertsema/claude-code-plugins --plugin financial-forecastingThis skill uses the workspace's default tool permissions.
You create financial forecasts projecting future financial performance. You research market benchmarks and comparable company data yourself — do not ask the user for data they would need to look up. Only ask the user for decisions and confirmations.
Provides UI/UX resources: 50+ styles, color palettes, font pairings, guidelines, charts for web/mobile across React, Next.js, Vue, Svelte, Tailwind, React Native, Flutter. Aids planning, building, reviewing interfaces.
Fetches up-to-date documentation from Context7 for libraries and frameworks like React, Next.js, Prisma. Use for setup questions, API references, and code examples.
Calculates TAM/SAM/SOM using top-down, bottom-up, and value theory methodologies for market sizing, revenue estimation, and startup validation.
You create financial forecasts projecting future financial performance. You research market benchmarks and comparable company data yourself — do not ask the user for data they would need to look up. Only ask the user for decisions and confirmations.
This skill complements cost-benefit-analysis (which evaluates specific decisions) and roi-modeling (which calculates returns) by projecting the overall financial trajectory of a business or project.
| Method | Approach | Best for |
|---|---|---|
| Straight-line | Constant growth rate projection | Mature, stable businesses |
| Growth rate | Linear, exponential, or S-curve | Growth-stage businesses |
| Driver-based | Key drivers → financial outcomes | Complex businesses with clear operational metrics |
| Bottom-up | Units × price, customers × ARPU | Businesses with known unit economics |
| Top-down | Market size × market share | Early-stage or market entry |
| Hybrid | Bottom-up + top-down triangulation | Most accurate for established businesses |
Follow shared foundation §7 — interview mode. When input is missing or insufficient, interview to gather at minimum:
| Dimension | Required | Default |
|---|---|---|
| Business/project context | Yes | — |
| Historical financial data | No | Will use research + benchmarks |
| Business model | No | Inferred from context |
| Time horizon | No | 3 years |
| Granularity | No | Monthly Y1, quarterly Y2-3 |
| Key drivers | No | Will be identified |
Exit interview when: Business context is clear enough to identify revenue model, cost structure, and key drivers.
Accept one of:
From the input, identify:
**Business**: [name]
**Revenue model**: [type]
**Stage**: [pre-revenue / early / growth / mature]
**Data source**: [historical data / research-based]
**Time horizon**: [N years]
**Granularity**: [monthly Y1, quarterly Y2-3]
Ask the user to confirm or adjust. Ask diagram render mode and output path per the diagram-rendering and autonomous-research mixins.
Use WebSearch and WebFetch per the autonomous-research mixin.
| Model | Revenue formula | Key drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Subscription/SaaS | Customers × ARPU; MRR/ARR with churn | New sales, expansion, contraction, churn rate |
| Transactional | Transactions × average order value | Traffic, conversion rate, AOV |
| Marketplace | GMV × take rate | Buyers, sellers, GMV, take rate |
| Licensing | Licenses × price; maintenance/support | New licenses, renewals, support contracts |
| Services | Consultants × utilization × rate | Headcount, utilization rate, bill rate |
| Freemium | Free users × conversion rate × ARPU | User base, conversion, monetization |
| Category | Type | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| COGS | Variable | Per unit or % of revenue |
| Salaries | Fixed (stepped) | Headcount × avg salary; hiring plan |
| Marketing | Semi-variable | Budget + % of revenue |
| Infrastructure | Semi-variable | Base + per-user/per-transaction scaling |
| Rent/office | Fixed | Lease terms, escalation |
| R&D | Fixed (stepped) | Engineering headcount |
Identify 3-7 operational metrics that drive financial outcomes. Examples:
Present business model summary for user confirmation.
Choose based on data availability and business stage:
| Component | Calculation | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Beginning MRR | Previous period ending MRR | Monthly |
| + New MRR | New customers × ARPU | Monthly |
| + Expansion MRR | Upsells, upgrades | Monthly |
| - Contraction MRR | Downgrades | Monthly |
| - Churned MRR | Lost customers × their ARPU | Monthly |
| = Ending MRR | Sum | Monthly |
| ARR | Ending MRR × 12 | Annual |
| Period | [Segment 1] | [Segment 2] | Total Revenue | Growth % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | [amount] | [amount] | [total] | — |
| M2 | [amount] | [amount] | [total] | [%] |
Monthly for Year 1, quarterly for Years 2-3 (or as specified).
| Item | Monthly | Annual | Escalation | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [item] | [amount] | [amount] | [% per year] | [justification] |
| Item | Unit cost | Driver | Formula | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [item] | [amount] | [metric] | [unit cost × driver] | [justification] |
| Item | Fixed base | Variable component | Formula | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [item] | [amount] | [rate × driver] | [base + variable] | [justification] |
| Role | Start | Hires Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Y2 | Y3 | Salary |
|---|
| Period | COGS | Salaries | Marketing | Infrastructure | Other OpEx | Total |
|---|
| Line item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | — |
| COGS | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | [% of rev] |
| Gross Profit | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | — |
| Gross Margin % | [%] | [%] | [%] | [industry %] |
| Operating Expenses | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | — |
| EBIT | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | — |
| Operating Margin % | [%] | [%] | [%] | [industry %] |
| Interest & Tax | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | — |
| Net Income | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | — |
| Net Margin % | [%] | [%] | [%] | [industry %] |
Flag margins that deviate significantly from industry benchmarks.
| Item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| + Depreciation/Amortization | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| + Working capital changes | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Operating Cash Flow | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital expenditure | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Investing Cash Flow | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Funding / loans | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Repayments | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Financing Cash Flow | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Period | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash | Burn Rate (monthly) | Runway (months) |
|---|
Burn rate = total monthly cash outflow (for pre-profit companies) Runway = cash balance / monthly net burn rate
| Metric | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAC | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | [industry] |
| LTV | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | [industry] |
| LTV:CAC | [ratio] | [ratio] | [ratio] | ≥ 3:1 |
| CAC Payback | [months] | [months] | [months] | < 12 months |
| Gross Margin | [%] | [%] | [%] | [industry] |
| Contribution Margin | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | — |
Show evolution over time — unit economics should improve as the business scales.
| Parameter | Best case | Base case | Worst case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | [higher] | [expected] | [lower] |
| Churn rate | [lower] | [expected] | [higher] |
| Customer acquisition | [faster] | [expected] | [slower] |
| Cost escalation | [lower] | [expected] | [higher] |
| Market conditions | [favorable] | [neutral] | [adverse] |
| Metric | Best | Base | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|
| Y3 Revenue | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Y3 Net Income | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Cash Runway | [months] | [months] | [months] |
| Break-even | [period] | [period] | [never/period] |
Identify 3-5 variables with highest impact on key metrics.
| Variable | -20% | Base | +20% | Revenue Impact | Net Income Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [variable] | [value] | [value] | [value] | [delta] | [delta] |
| Variable | Break-even value | Current value | Safety margin |
|---|
xychart-beta
title Revenue Forecast by Scenario
x-axis ["Q1", "Q2", "Q3", "Q4", "Y2Q1", "Y2Q2", "Y2Q3", "Y2Q4", "Y3Q1", "Y3Q2", "Y3Q3", "Y3Q4"]
y-axis "Revenue" 0 --> 2000000
line [50000, 80000, 120000, 180000, 280000, 400000, 550000, 720000, 900000, 1100000, 1350000, 1600000]
line [50000, 75000, 100000, 140000, 200000, 270000, 350000, 440000, 540000, 650000, 770000, 900000]
line [50000, 65000, 80000, 100000, 130000, 160000, 190000, 220000, 250000, 280000, 310000, 340000]
Three lines: best case, base case, worst case.
xychart-beta
title P&L Summary — Year 1
x-axis ["Revenue", "COGS", "Gross Profit", "OpEx", "EBIT", "Tax", "Net Income"]
y-axis "Amount" 0 --> 1000000
bar [900000, 270000, 630000, 500000, 130000, 30000, 100000]
xychart-beta
title Cumulative Cash Position
x-axis ["M1", "M3", "M6", "M9", "M12", "Q5", "Q6", "Q7", "Q8", "Q9", "Q10", "Q11", "Q12"]
y-axis "Cash" -500000 --> 1000000
line [-100000, -250000, -350000, -300000, -150000, 0, 100000, 250000, 400000, 550000, 700000, 850000, 1000000]
xychart-beta
title Unit Economics Evolution
x-axis ["Q1", "Q2", "Q3", "Q4", "Y2H1", "Y2H2", "Y3H1", "Y3H2"]
y-axis "Ratio" 0 --> 5
line [0.8, 1.2, 1.8, 2.3, 2.8, 3.2, 3.5, 4.0]
LTV:CAC ratio over time (target line at 3.0).
Render diagrams per the diagram-rendering mixin.
File naming:
revenue-projection.mmd / .pngpnl-waterfall.mmd / .pngcash-flow.mmd / .pngunit-economics.mmd / .pngAssemble the complete report:
# Financial Forecast: [Business/Project]
**Date**: [date]
**Business**: [name]
**Revenue model**: [type]
**Time horizon**: [N years]
**Granularity**: [monthly Y1, quarterly Y2-3]
**Revenue Y1/Y2/Y3**: [amounts]
**Net Income Y1/Y2/Y3**: [amounts]
**Cash runway**: [months] (if applicable)
**LTV:CAC**: [ratio] (if applicable)
## Executive Summary
[Key findings: revenue trajectory, profitability timeline, cash position, critical assumptions]
## Business Model Summary
[Phase 3 — revenue model, cost structure, key drivers]
## Key Drivers
[Driver identification with formulas]
## Revenue Forecast
[Phase 4 revenue table + Diagram 1]
## Expense Forecast
[Phase 5 expense tables]
## P&L Projection
[Phase 6 P&L table + Diagram 2]
## Cash Flow Forecast
[Phase 7 cash flow tables + Diagram 3]
## Unit Economics
[Phase 8 unit economics table + Diagram 4]
## Scenario Analysis
[Phase 9 scenarios with per-scenario summaries]
## Sensitivity Analysis
[Phase 10 variable analysis + break-even conditions]
## Key Assumptions Register
[All assumptions documented with source and confidence]
## Recommendations
[Prioritized actions: revenue acceleration, cost optimization, funding needs]
## Sources
[Numbered list of web sources]
## Assumptions & Limitations
[Explicit list with confidence levels]
Present for user approval. Save only after explicit confirmation.
Per the autonomous-research mixin, plus:
| Situation | Behavior |
|---|---|
| No business context | Enter interview mode — ask what business or project to forecast |
| Context too vague | Enter interview mode — ask targeted questions about revenue model and stage |
| No historical data | Use research-based projections with [Assumption] labels and benchmark sources |
| Business model unclear | Research comparable companies, propose model, confirm with user |
| Industry benchmarks unavailable | Use adjacent industry data, label as [Approximate] |
| Projections appear unrealistic | Flag with comparison to benchmarks, present anyway with caveat |
| mmdc / web search failures | See diagram-rendering and autonomous-research mixins |
| Out-of-scope request | "This skill creates financial forecasts. [Request] is outside scope." |
Before presenting output, verify:
[] Revenue forecast uses appropriate method(s) with documented drivers
[] Revenue growth justified by driver assumptions (no unexplained hockey sticks)
[] Expenses categorized (fixed/variable/semi-variable) with escalation rules
[] P&L complete: revenue → COGS → gross profit → OpEx → EBIT → net income
[] All P&L lines sum correctly (mathematical consistency)
[] Margins tracked and compared to industry benchmarks
[] Cash flow includes operating, investing, financing components
[] Burn rate and runway calculated (if pre-profit)
[] Unit economics calculated: CAC, LTV, LTV:CAC, payback period
[] Unit economics show evolution over time
[] 3 scenarios with distinct, documented assumptions
[] Sensitivity analysis on 3-5 key variables
[] Break-even conditions identified
[] All assumptions documented in register with source and confidence
[] Monthly granularity for Year 1 (or as specified)
[] All 4 Mermaid diagrams render valid syntax (per diagram-rendering mixin)
[] Sources listed for benchmarks and claims (per autonomous-research mixin)
[] Assumptions labeled with confidence (per autonomous-research mixin)