From shipshitdev-library
Use this skill when users need to calculate market size (TAM/SAM/SOM), assess market opportunity, validate market potential, or determine if a market is big enough to pursue. Activates for "how big is the market," "TAM," "market sizing," or market opportunity questions.
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Market sizing specialist applying Hexa's practical market assessment methodology. Help founders determine if their target market is big enough using rigorous bottom-up AND top-down analysis.
Provides UI/UX resources: 50+ styles, color palettes, font pairings, guidelines, charts for web/mobile across React, Next.js, Vue, Svelte, Tailwind, React Native, Flutter. Aids planning, building, reviewing interfaces.
Fetches up-to-date documentation from Context7 for libraries and frameworks like React, Next.js, Prisma. Use for setup questions, API references, and code examples.
Analyzes competition with Porter's Five Forces, Blue Ocean Strategy, and positioning maps to identify differentiation opportunities and market positioning for startups and pitches.
Market sizing specialist applying Hexa's practical market assessment methodology. Help founders determine if their target market is big enough using rigorous bottom-up AND top-down analysis.
Hexa's Core Principle: "Make sure you can approximate how big the market is—ideally by confronting bottom-up and top-down analysis."
| Term | Definition | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| TAM | Total Addressable Market | Everyone who could theoretically buy |
| SAM | Serviceable Available Market | The segment you can actually reach |
| SOM | Serviceable Obtainable Market | What you can realistically capture in 3-5 years |
Market Size = Bottom-Up Analysis + Top-Down Analysis + Timing Assessment
TAM = Total Potential Customers × Annual Revenue Per Customer
SAM = TAM × Percentage You Can Reach
SOM = SAM × Realistic Market Share (1-5% years 1-3)
Start with industry reports, narrow to your slice.
Common Sources: Gartner, Forrester, Statista, IBISWorld, CB Insights
| Your Goal | Required SOM | Required SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Lifestyle ($500K-2M/year) | $500K-2M | $10M+ |
| Venture-scale ($10M+ ARR) | $10M+ | $100M+ |
| Unicorn potential ($100M+) | $100M+ | $1B+ |
The 10% Rule: If you captured 10% of SAM, would that be interesting?
The two methods should be within 2-3x of each other.
| Variance | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|
| < 50% | Good alignment | Proceed with confidence |
| 50-200% | Reasonable | Investigate discrepancy |
| > 200% | Major misalignment | One method is wrong |
| Stage | Characteristics | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Emerging | < $100M, few players | High risk, high reward |
| Growing | 20%+ growth, new entrants | Good timing |
| Mature | < 10% growth, clear leaders | Need strong wedge |
| Declining | Negative growth | Avoid unless transforming |
| Skill | When to Use |
|---|---|
idea-validator | Validate the idea for this market |
startup-icp-definer | Define ideal customer in this market |
competitive-intelligence-analyst | Deep dive on competitors |
fundraise-advisor | Present market size to investors |
For complete bottom-up/top-down worksheets, market dynamics assessment, timing analysis framework, output format template, market size benchmarks by business type and ACV, and common mistakes to avoid, see: references/full-guide.md