Penalty & Manual Action Check — Phase 20

Executive Summary

A Google penalty is a multiplier against zero — no amount of on-page optimization, content creation, or link building can overcome an active manual action or severe algorithmic penalty. Run this phase FIRST in Wave 1. In 2025, penalties have expanded beyond traditional link spam: Google's Scaled Content Abuse policy (March 2024) specifically targets bulk AI-generated pages without human editorial oversight, and Site Reputation Abuse (May 2024) penalizes sites hosting low-quality third-party content for ranking purposes. Additionally, algorithmic penalties from the Helpful Content System (HCS, integrated March 2024) are not marked in GSC — they require traffic pattern analysis correlated against known update dates. Penalty status also directly affects AI visibility: penalized or low-trust domains are excluded from Google AI Overviews and are rarely cited by ChatGPT or Perplexity.

2025 penalty benchmarks:

• Manual action recovery: 2–8 weeks after reinclusion request (Google states 2–4 weeks; reality: 4–8 weeks)
• Algorithmic recovery: must wait for next Core Update to take effect — typically 3–6 month cycles
• HCS recovery: documented cases show 3–12 months after removing unhelpful content
• Disavow threshold (2024 guidance): Google auto-ignores most low-quality links — only disavow if confirmed manual action or +500% spam spike
• TF:CF ratio <0.3 = high unnatural link risk; brand anchors should be 40–60% of link profile
• AI Overviews: sites with active penalties or domain trust <30 DA rarely appear in AIO citations

Numbered Action Plan:

Immediate (Week 1)

1. Check GSC Manual Actions — GSC → Security & Manual Actions → Manual Actions. If any present: stop all other optimization, begin recovery immediately. Effort: 5 min. Priority: 25 (5×5).
2. Run site:[domain] search — if result count is <50% of sitemap count, immediate deindexation flag. Compare month-over-month if GSC unavailable. Effort: 5 min. Priority: 20.
3. Cross-reference traffic drop dates with algorithm update timeline — use Semrush Sensor or Algoroo to identify if drops align with known updates (Mar 2024 Core, Aug 2024 Core, Mar 2025 Core). Effort: 15 min.
4. Check link profile health via Majestic — TF:CF ratio <0.3 + exact-match anchors >10% = automatic disavow candidate. Run free check at Majestic.com. Effort: 20 min. Priority: 20 (4×5).
5. Check competitor clean profiles — compare client's organic traffic trend (SimilarWeb) against 2–3 confirmed-clean competitors in same niche to establish "what healthy looks like." Effort: 15 min.

Short-Term (Week 1–2)

6. Audit thin/duplicate content — run Screaming Frog crawl (free up to 500 pages) → filter for pages <300 words → flag for noindex or expansion. Any pages with identical titles/metas = duplicate content risk. Effort: 30 min crawl + 1 hr analysis.
7. Run technical deception check — compare Googlebot UA vs. user UA with curl commands. Check for redirect chains. Search "[business name]" -site:[domain] for scraped copies. Effort: 20 min.
8. Audit scaled content abuse risk — if site has >50 programmatic pages (location × service combinations) with near-identical content: flag immediately. Google's March 2024 Spam Update specifically targets this pattern. Effort: 30 min.
9. Submit disavow file if needed — only if manual action confirmed OR TF:CF <0.3 with +500% referring domain spike. Use domain: prefix format. Effort: 1–2 hrs to build + 15 min to submit.
10. Document and prioritize recovery roadmap — if penalty confirmed: write recovery plan with realistic timelines (manual action: 4–8 weeks; algorithmic: 3–6 months; HCS: 3–12 months). Share with client before any other optimization work. Effort: 1 hr.

Why Run First (Wave 1)

A penalty makes 90% of other audit findings irrelevant until resolved. Check penalty status before deep-diving into optimization.

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Step 1: Read Project Context

Read {AUDIT_DIR}/intake-data.md for business name, URL, and project paths. Read {AUDIT_DIR}/competitor-profiles.md for competitor traffic benchmarks (clean sites for comparison).

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Step 2: Manual Actions Check

GSC Manual Actions (If Access Available)

• Navigate: GSC → Security & Manual Actions → Manual Actions
• Document any manual actions: type, scope (site-wide / partial), date applied
• Check if reinclusion request ever submitted

Tools: Google Search Console (free), Ahrefs Site Audit → Manual Actions alerts (paid)

Manual Action Types — 2025 Reference Table

Type	What It Means	Severity	Avg Recovery Time
Unnatural links to your site	Toxic backlink profile	🔴 Critical	3–6 months after disavow
Unnatural links from your site	Selling/exchanging links	🔴 Critical	2–4 months after cleanup
Thin content with little or no added value	Thin/duplicate content at scale	🔴 Critical	1–3 months after improvement
Cloaking / sneaky redirects	Showing different content to Google vs. users	🔴 Critical	1–2 months after fix
Pure spam	Site flagged as spam network	🔴 Critical	6–12 months (or never)
User-generated spam	UGC sections used by spammers	🟠 High	1–2 months
Structured data issue	Schema spam or misleading markup	🟠 High	2–4 weeks
AMP content mismatch	Different content in AMP vs. canonical	🟡 Medium	2–4 weeks
Site reputation abuse	Hosting low-quality 3rd-party content for ranking	🔴 Critical	3–6 months (added May 2024)
Scaled content abuse	Mass AI-generated or low-value content	🔴 Critical	3–6 months (2024+)

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Step 3: Algorithm Penalty Detection

Even without GSC access, detect algorithmic penalties via traffic pattern analysis.

Tools for Traffic Pattern Analysis

• Semrush Sensor — tracks daily ranking volatility (free tier available)
• Algoroo — algorithm update correlation tool (free)
• MozCast — SERP turbulence tracker (free)
• SimilarWeb — estimated organic traffic trend (freemium)
• Wayback Machine — historical site snapshots to detect major content changes

2025 Algorithm Update Timeline (Cross-Reference Traffic Drops)

Update	Date	What It Targets
Helpful Content System	Sep 2023, Mar 2024	Unhelpful, SEO-first content
Core Update	Mar 2024	Broad quality assessment — hit many small sites
Spam Update	Mar 2024, Jun 2024	Link spam, scaled content abuse, expired domain abuse
Site Reputation Abuse	May 2024	Hosting 3rd-party low-quality content for ranking
Core Update	Aug 2024	Quality, EEAT, unhelpful content
Core Update	Nov 2024	Continued quality signals, authority
Core Update	Mar 2025	AI-generated content abuse, low-value content at scale
AI Overview impact	2024–2025 ongoing	Reduces organic CTR for featured results
Spam Update	Jun 2025	Evolved link spam detection

Traffic Pattern Red Flags

Pattern	Likely Cause	Severity
Sudden 30%+ drop on specific date	Algorithmic penalty	🔴 Critical
Gradual 50%+ decline over 6–12 months	Quality/HCU issue	🟠 High
Drop in branded traffic only	Trust/reputation issue	🟠 High
Specific page type affected (e.g., all blog posts)	Content quality issue	🟡 Medium
Specific keyword category affected	Topical relevance issue	🟡 Medium
Mobile traffic drops more than desktop	Mobile usability issue	🟡 Medium

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Step 4: Unnatural Link Profile Analysis

Tools

• Ahrefs → Site Explorer → Backlinks → filter: Dofollow, new links velocity
• Google Search Console → Links → Top linking sites + anchor text distribution
• Semrush → Backlink Audit → Toxic Score breakdown
• Majestic → Trust Flow vs. Citation Flow ratio (TF/CF < 0.3 = risk)

Unnatural Link Red Flags (Specific Thresholds)

Signal	Red Flag Threshold	Tool to Check
Exact-match commercial anchors	>10% of link profile	Ahrefs anchor report
Referring domains from .ru/.cn spam	>5% of RD count	Ahrefs + GSC
Links from same C-class IPs	>20 links from same /24 subnet	Majestic
Trust Flow < Citation Flow (TF:CF)	Ratio < 0.3	Majestic
Sudden referring domain spike	+500% in 30 days then crash	Ahrefs history
Footer/sitewide links from unrelated sites	Any present	Ahrefs link type filter
PBN or link farm patterns	DA <10 + no real content	Ahrefs + manual check

Disavow File Status

• Locate: GSC → Links → Disavow
• Has a disavow file been submitted? When was it last updated?
• Are new toxic links appearing AFTER the disavow submission?

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Step 5: Thin/Duplicate Content Check

Tools

• Screaming Frog SEO Spider — crawl for word counts, duplicate titles/metas, thin pages
• Siteliner — duplicate content % across site (free up to 250 pages)
• Google Search Console → Coverage → Excluded pages (indexation issues)
• Copyscape — detect scraped/plagiarised content (paid)
• site_crawler.py → reads {DATA_DIR}/crawl/ for word count data per page

Thin Content Thresholds

Content Type	Minimum Word Count	Red Flag
Homepage	600+ words	<400 words
Service page	800+ words	<500 words
Location page	600+ words	<400 words
Blog post	1,200+ words	<600 words
Product page	400+ words	<200 words

Scaled Content Abuse Detection (2024–2025 Critical)

• Large volumes of AI-generated pages with no human editorial oversight
• Programmatic pages targeting location × service variations with near-identical content
• Content that answers questions but provides no unique experience, expertise, or data
• Pages with high bounce rate + zero dwell time + no engagement signals

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Step 6: Technical Deception Check

# Googlebot vs. user-agent comparison
curl -A "Googlebot" https://domain.com    # Googlebot view
curl https://domain.com                    # User view
# Compare: different content = cloaking risk

# Redirect chain check
curl -IL https://domain.com

# Hidden text detection (in browser console)
document.querySelectorAll('[style*="display:none"], [style*="visibility:hidden"]')

Search Operator Verification

site:domain.com                     → Total indexed pages (flag if >2× sitemap count)
site:domain.com -www                → www/non-www duplicate check
site:domain.com inurl:?             → Parameterized duplicate pages being indexed
"[business name]" -site:domain.com → Scraped copies of content
cache:domain.com                    → Last crawl date and cached content
domain.com spam                     → External spam reports
domain.com penalized                → Community penalty reports

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Step 7: Competitor Clean Profile Benchmark

Compare the target site's signals against confirmed-clean competitor sites. This establishes what a healthy local business looks like in this niche.

Tools: SimilarWeb (traffic trends), Ahrefs (referring domains, anchor distribution), Majestic (TF:CF), Screaming Frog (indexed count)

Signal	Client	Top Competitor	2nd Competitor	Healthy Benchmark
Organic traffic trend (6mo)	±%	±%	±%	Stable or growing
Referring domains (total)	#	#	#	Industry average
TF:CF ratio	ratio	ratio	ratio	≥0.5 healthy; <0.3 = toxic risk
Avg anchor text: branded	%	%	%	50–60%
Avg anchor text: exact match	%	%	%	<10%
Indexed pages vs. sitemap	ratio	ratio	ratio	Within 20%
Pages <300 words	%	%	%	<5% of crawled
E-E-A-T signals (author bios)	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Present on all content
INP Core Web Vital	ms	ms	ms	<200ms Good (replaced FID March 2024)
Manual actions	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	None
GSC coverage errors	#	n/a	n/a	<1% of indexed

Confirm competitor is "clean" before using as benchmark: stable organic traffic, ranks for branded name, site: count ≈ sitemap count.

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Step 8: AI Visibility Impact of Penalties (2025)

A Google algorithmic penalty has compounding effects beyond organic search:

• AI Overview exclusion — Penalized or low-trust sites are rarely cited in AI Overviews
• Knowledge Graph suppression — Spam signals reduce entity trust score
• Brand SERP damage — Negative SERP features appear for branded queries
• AI assistant citations — ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini avoid citing penalized or low-trust domains

Check: Search [business name] site:domain.com in AI Overviews / Perplexity / ChatGPT. Is the site referenced?

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Step 9: Recovery Roadmap (If Penalty Confirmed)

Manual Action Recovery (ordered by priority)

1. Identify exact violation — Read GSC manual action notice verbatim — Effort: 30 min
2. Link cleanup — Contact webmasters to remove toxic links (email each) — Effort: 2–5 hrs
3. Create disavow file — List all remaining toxic domains/URLs — Effort: 1–2 hrs
4. Submit disavow — Upload to GSC Disavow Tool (use domain: prefix) — Effort: 15 min
5. Fix underlying content violations — Rewrite thin pages (800+ words each) — Effort: 2–4 hrs per page
6. Submit reinclusion request — After ALL violations resolved — Effort: 30 min — Wait: 2–8 weeks
7. Monitor GSC weekly — Track manual action status + coverage changes — Effort: 30 min/week

Algorithmic Recovery (Helpful Content / Core Updates)

1. Audit worst-performing pages (Screaming Frog + GSC performance data) — Effort: 2 hrs
2. Prune or consolidate thin content — Noindex or 301 redirect to better page — Effort: 1 hr per page
3. Improve E-E-A-T signals — Author bios, original data, expert quotes — Effort: 4–8 hrs per page
4. Wait for next core update — Google only re-evaluates during Core Updates (quarterly) — Timeline: 3–6 months
5. Monitor with Semrush Sensor — Track volatility correlation to recovery — Effort: 15 min/week

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Step 10: Scoring

Category	Score Contribution	Weight
No manual actions present	25 pts	Critical
No algorithmic correlation to traffic drop	20 pts	High
Clean link profile (TF:CF >0.3, <10% exact-match)	20 pts	High
No thin/duplicate content at scale	20 pts	High
No technical deception signals	15 pts	Medium

Score Interpretation:

Score	Status	Interpretation
90–100	✅ Clean	No penalty signals — proceed with full audit
70–89	⚠️ Caution	Risk factors present — monitor closely
50–69	🟠 Risk	Likely algorithmic issues — investigate and improve
30–49	🔴 High Risk	Probable unresolved penalty — prioritize recovery
<30	❌ Critical	Confirmed penalty — halt other phases until resolved

Priority Matrix:

Action	Impact (1–5)	Feasibility (1–5)	Priority Score
Submit disavow file	5	4	20
Remove/noindex thin pages	4	4	16
Improve E-E-A-T on key pages	5	3	15
Submit reinclusion request	5	5	25
Fix canonical / redirect issues	4	4	16

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Output Format

Write to {AUDIT_DIR}/penalty-findings.md with this structure:

---
skill: audit/penalty-check
phase: 20
date: [YYYY-MM-DD]
business: [Business Name]
url: [URL]
score: [X/100]
status: [clean|caution|risk|critical]
---

AUDIT PHASE: Penalty Check | ID: PENALTY-001 | Phase: 20
BUSINESS: [Name] | URL: [URL] | DATE: [Date]
SCORE: X/100 | STATUS: ✅ Clean / ⚠️ Caution / 🔴 Risk / ❌ Critical

MANUAL ACTIONS: None / [type, scope, date]
ALGORITHMIC CORRELATION: None / [update name, date, traffic % drop]

PENALTY TYPE:         [if applicable]
SCOPE:               Site-wide / Partial
LIKELY CAUSE:        [link spam / thin content / cloaking / scaled content]
RECOVERY STATUS:     Not Started / In Progress / Resolved

CRITICAL ISSUES:
🔴 [issue with evidence, tool that found it, steps to fix]

HIGH PRIORITY:
🟠 [issue with evidence and priority score: Impact × Feasibility]

COMPETITOR COMPARISON:
| Signal             | Client | Comp 1 | Comp 2 | Benchmark |
|--------------------|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
| Organic trend 6mo  |        |        |        | Growing   |
| Exact-match anchors|  %     |  %     |  %     | <10%      |
| Indexed pages      |        |        |        | ~sitemap  |

RECOVERY ROADMAP (if penalty confirmed):
1. [Immediate action] — Effort: [X hrs] — Timeline: [X weeks] — Impact: [High/Med]
2. [action] — Effort: — Timeline: — Impact:
3. [action]

AI VISIBILITY IMPACT: [Is site appearing in AI Overviews / Perplexity / ChatGPT?]

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Handoff

Write output to {AUDIT_DIR}/penalty-findings.md.

If penalty confirmed: Flag immediately — all other phases are secondary until resolved. Include recovery roadmap with realistic timelines.

If clean: Note clean status — proceed with remaining phases. Include any mild risk factors as preventive actions.

Key consumers: audit/technical-seo (links to technical issues), strategy/backlink-audit (link profile detail), output/report-generation (master report integration).

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Penalty Quick Reference

Penalty Type vs. Recovery Timeline Table

Penalty Type	Detection Method	Avg Recovery	Required Action	Priority
Manual: Unnatural links (inbound)	GSC Manual Actions	3–6 months after disavow	Disavow file + reinclusion request	25 (5×5)
Manual: Thin content	GSC Manual Actions	1–3 months after rewrite	Rewrite all flagged pages to 800+ words	25 (5×5)
Manual: Site reputation abuse	GSC Manual Actions	3–6 months	Remove/noindex all 3rd-party low-quality content	25 (5×5)
Algorithmic: HCS (Helpful Content)	Traffic drop correlated to HCU dates	3–12 months	Remove/improve unhelpful content; improve E-E-A-T	20 (5×4)
Algorithmic: Core Update	Traffic drop at Core Update date	3–6 months (next Core Update)	Improve content quality, topical depth, E-E-A-T	20 (5×4)
Algorithmic: Scaled content abuse	Traffic drop + many thin programmatic pages	3–6 months	Consolidate/delete thin pages; add unique content	20 (5×4)
Algorithmic: Spam (links)	TF:CF <0.3 + exact-match anchors >10%	2–4 months	Build disavow file; earn natural links	20 (4×5)

Rank-Specific Competitor Benchmark Table

Compare client vs. top-3 competitors at specific rank positions:

Metric	Client	#1 Ranked Competitor	#2 Ranked Competitor	#3 Ranked Competitor	Healthy Benchmark
Manual actions	Y/N	Y/N	Y/N	Y/N	None
Organic traffic trend (6mo)	↑/↓ %	↑/↓ %	↑/↓ %	↑/↓ %	Stable or ↑
TF:CF ratio (Majestic)	ratio	ratio	ratio	ratio	≥0.5
Exact-match anchors	%	%	%	%	<10%
Indexed pages vs. sitemap	ratio	n/a	n/a	n/a	Within 20%
GBP rating (trust proxy)	stars	stars	stars	stars	≥4.0
INP (Core Web Vital)	ms	ms	ms	ms	<200ms Good
E-E-A-T: expert bylines	Y/N	Y/N	Y/N	Y/N	Present on all