From armory
Generates calibrated three-point PERT estimates (best/likely/worst) for development tasks with confidence intervals, unknowns, and assumptions. For effort estimation, story points, and sizing.
npx claudepluginhub mathews-tom/armory --plugin armoryThis skill uses the workspace's default tool permissions.
Replaces single-point guesses with structured three-point estimates: decomposes work
Implements Playwright E2E testing patterns: Page Object Model, test organization, configuration, reporters, artifacts, and CI/CD integration for stable suites.
Guides Next.js 16+ Turbopack for faster dev via incremental bundling, FS caching, and HMR; covers webpack comparison, bundle analysis, and production builds.
Discovers and evaluates Laravel packages via LaraPlugins.io MCP. Searches by keyword/feature, filters by health score, Laravel/PHP compatibility; fetches details, metrics, and version history.
Replaces single-point guesses with structured three-point estimates: decomposes work into atomic units, estimates best/likely/worst case for each, identifies unknowns and assumptions, calculates aggregate ranges using PERT, and assigns confidence levels with explicit rationale.
| File | Contents | Load When |
|---|---|---|
references/estimation-methods.md | PERT formula, three-point estimation, Monte Carlo basics | Always |
references/unknown-categories.md | Technical, scope, external, and organizational uncertainty types | Unknown identification |
references/calibration-tips.md | Cognitive biases in estimation, historical calibration, buffer strategies | Always |
references/sizing-heuristics.md | Common task size patterns, complexity indicators, reference class data | Quick sizing needed |
If the work item is not already decomposed into atomic units:
For each task, estimate three scenarios:
| Scenario | Definition | Mindset |
|---|---|---|
| Best case | Everything goes right. No surprises. | "If I've done this exact thing before" |
| Likely case | Normal friction. Some minor obstacles. | "Realistic expectation with typical setbacks" |
| Worst case | Significant problems. Not catastrophic. | "Murphy's law but not a disaster" |
Key rule: Worst case is NOT "everything goes wrong." It's the realistic bad scenario (90th percentile), not the apocalyptic one (99th percentile).
Categorize unknowns that affect estimates:
| Category | Example | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | "Never used this library before" | Likely case inflated, worst case much higher |
| Scope | "Requirements may change" | All estimates may shift |
| External | "Depends on API access from partner" | Blocking risk — could delay entirely |
| Integration | "Haven't tested with production data" | Hidden complexity at integration |
| Organizational | "Need design approval" | Calendar time, not effort time |
For individual tasks, use the PERT formula:
Expected = (Best + 4 × Likely + Worst) / 6
Std Dev = (Worst - Best) / 6
For aggregate (project) estimates:
| Confidence | Meaning | When |
|---|---|---|
| High | Likely case within ±20% | Well-understood task, team has done it before |
| Medium | Likely case within ±50% | Some unknowns, moderate familiarity |
| Low | Likely case within ±100% or more | Significant unknowns, new technology |
## Estimate: {Work Item}
### Summary
| Scenario | Duration |
|----------|----------|
| Best case | {time} |
| Likely case | {time} |
| Worst case | {time} |
| **PERT expected** | **{time}** |
| **Confidence** | **{High/Medium/Low}** |
### Task-Level Estimates
| # | Task | Best | Likely | Worst | PERT | Unknowns |
|---|------|------|--------|-------|------|----------|
| 1 | {task} | {time} | {time} | {time} | {time} | {key unknown or "None"} |
| 2 | {task} | {time} | {time} | {time} | {time} | {key unknown} |
| | **Total** | **{sum}** | **{sum}** | **{sum}** | **{pert}** | |
### Key Unknowns
| # | Unknown | Category | Impact on Estimate | Mitigation |
|---|---------|----------|-------------------|------------|
| 1 | {unknown} | {Technical/Scope/External} | +{time} if realized | {spike, prototype, early test} |
### Assumptions
- {Assumption 1 — what must be true for this estimate to hold}
- {Assumption 2}
### Risk Factors
- {Risk}: If realized, adds {time}. Likelihood: {High/Medium/Low}.
### Confidence Rationale
**{High/Medium/Low}** because:
- {Specific reason — e.g., "Team has built 3 similar features"}
- {Specific reason — e.g., "External API is a new integration"}
### Recommendation
{Commit to PERT expected with {X}% buffer, or spike the top unknown first.}
| Problem | Resolution |
|---|---|
| Work item not decomposed | Decompose into 3-8 tasks first (or suggest task-decomposer skill). |
| No historical reference | Estimate relative to a known task: "This is about 2x the auth feature." |
| Stakeholder wants a single number | Provide PERT expected with buffer matching confidence level (High: +20%, Medium: +50%, Low: +100%). |
| Estimate seems too large | Check for scope creep in task list. Remove non-essential tasks. Identify what can be deferred. |
| Team has never done this type of work | Mark confidence as Low. Recommend a spike before committing to an estimate. |
Push back if: