Pipeline Forecasting

B2B sales forecasting frameworks and deal scoring models.

Forecast Categories

Category	Definition	Weight
Commit	Will close this period	90%
Best Case	High probability, some risk	70%
Pipeline	Working, outcome uncertain	30%
Upside	Long shot, possible	10%

Weighted Pipeline

Weighted Pipeline = Σ (Deal Value × Stage Probability × Confidence)

Example:
$100K deal in Proposal (40%) with High confidence (1.1x)
= $100K × 0.4 × 1.1 = $44K weighted

Forecast Accuracy Metrics

Metric	Formula	Target
Forecast Accuracy	Actual / Forecast	90-110%
Commit Accuracy	Commit Closed / Commit Forecast	>85%
Best Case Accuracy	BC Closed / BC Forecast	>60%
Pipeline Accuracy	Pipeline Closed / Pipeline Forecast	>25%

Weekly Forecast Review Template

FORECAST REVIEW: [Date]

Commit: $[X] ([Y] deals)
- [Deal 1]: $X - [Status/Risk]
- [Deal 2]: $X - [Status/Risk]

Best Case: $[X] ([Y] deals)
- [Deal 1]: $X - [What needs to happen]

Pipeline: $[X] ([Y] deals)
- At risk: [List]
- Upside: [List]

Total Weighted: $[X]
vs. Target: $[X]
Gap: $[X]

Actions This Week:
1. [Specific action on deal]
2. [Specific action on deal]

Deal Scoring Model

Score Components

Factor	Weight	Scoring
ICP Fit	20%	3=Perfect, 2=Good, 1=Marginal, 0=Off
Champion	25%	3=Active, 2=Supportive, 1=Identified, 0=None
Authority	20%	3=Buyer engaged, 2=Identified, 1=Unknown, 0=Blocked
Need	15%	3=Urgent, 2=Important, 1=Nice-to-have, 0=None
Timeline	10%	3=This quarter, 2=Next quarter, 1=This year, 0=None
Competition	10%	3=None/weak, 2=Incumbent, 1=Strong, 0=Losing

Score Interpretation

• 85-100%: High confidence commit
• 70-84%: Best case
• 50-69%: Standard pipeline
• <50%: At risk, qualify harder