Calculate Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) using top-down, bottom-up, and value-theory approaches with credible data sources and VC-ready presentation.
Calculates defensible TAM/SAM/SOM using three methodologies (top-down, bottom-up, value-theory) with credible sources. Triggers when founders need investor-ready market sizing that survives due diligence.
/plugin marketplace add majesticlabs-dev/majestic-marketplace/plugin install majestic-marketing@majestic-marketplaceThis skill is limited to using the following tools:
resources/templates.mdAudience: Founders preparing investor materials who need defensible market sizing that survives due diligence pushback.
Goal: Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM using three methodologies (top-down, bottom-up, value-theory) with credible data sources. Every number must be traceable to Tier 1-3 sources.
Use AskUserQuestion to gather initial context. Begin by asking:
"I'll help you calculate TAM, SAM, and SOM that investors will actually believe.
The biggest mistake founders make is starting with a massive number and hoping investors won't push back. Smart investors will. Instead, we'll build your market sizing from multiple angles so you can defend it under scrutiny.
To create investor-ready market analysis, I need:
I'll research industry reports, government data, and competitor information to build your TAM from multiple methodologies."
Use WebSearch to find:
Source Quality Hierarchy:
| Tier | Source Type | Credibility |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Government data (Census, BLS, SEC filings) | Highest |
| 2 | Industry analysts (Gartner, IDC) | High |
| 3 | Trade association data | Medium-high |
| 4 | Company reports and filings | Medium |
| 5 | News articles citing sources | Low (trace to original) |
| 6 | Blog posts and estimates | Not acceptable |
Start with broadest market data and narrow down:
| Step | Description |
|---|---|
| 1 | Global market for industry |
| 2 | Geographic filter (your regions) |
| 3 | Segment filter (your customers) |
| 4 | Product category filter |
Formula: Global Market × Geographic % × Segment % × Category % = TAM
Build from individual customer units:
| Component | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Total potential customers | Count from data source |
| × Problem incidence | % who have the problem |
| × Willingness to pay | % who would pay for solution |
| × ACV | Your annual contract value |
| = TAM |
Formula: TAM = Σ (Customers × Penetration Rate × Annual Revenue per Customer)
Calculate based on value delivered:
| Component | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Cost of problem | Annual cost per customer |
| × Customers affected | Number with problem |
| = Total problem cost | |
| × Value capture | Typically 10-30% |
| = TAM |
"Everyone who could theoretically buy"
"Market we can realistically serve"
Apply constraints:
"What we can actually win"
| Year | Market Share | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conservative | Pipeline + conversion rates |
| 3 | Growth trajectory | Comparable company data |
| 5 | Mature state | Category leader benchmarks |
See resources/templates.md for detailed calculation templates.
✅ Not claiming inflated TAM - TAM reflects actual opportunity ✅ Bottom-up validates top-down - Multiple methodologies converge ✅ Realistic SOM assumptions - Market share backed by comparables ✅ Credible sources cited - Government/analyst data with URLs ✅ Assumptions explicit - Key inputs listed and justified ✅ Geography matches strategy - SAM reflects go-to-market plan ✅ Pricing validated - ACV based on customer research
# MARKET SIZING ANALYSIS: [Company/Product Name]
## Executive Summary
[3-4 sentence overview of TAM, SAM, SOM with key insight]
## Market Definition
[Clear boundaries and customer segments]
## TAM Calculation
[All three methodologies with sources]
## TAM Triangulation
[Reconciliation and recommended figure]
## SAM Calculation
[Constraint analysis and calculation]
## SOM Calculation
[Competitive analysis and projections]
## Visual Funnel
[TAM → SAM → SOM diagram - see resources/templates.md]
## Source Credibility Matrix
[Data quality assessment for all sources]
## Sensitivity Analysis
[Scenario modeling for key assumptions]
## Investor Presentation Summary
[Slide-ready version]
## Q&A Preparation
[Anticipated investor questions with answers]
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