PMF Validation

Frameworks for achieving and measuring product-market fit.

Related Skills

• pm-assumption-mapping - Prioritizing assumptions by risk
• pm-customer-interviews - Discovery interview techniques
• pm-jobs-to-be-done - Understanding customer motivations

Assumption Risk Framework

High Risk (Validate First)

Assumption	Validation Method	Success Criteria
Problem exists	Customer interviews (10+)	7/10 confirm problem
Willing to pay	Price testing, pre-orders	3+ paying commitments
Pain is acute	Severity scoring	Average 8+/10

Medium Risk (Validate During MVP)

Assumption	Validation Method	Success Criteria
Features priority	Usage analytics	60%+ use core feature
Channel works	A/B testing	CAC < 1/3 LTV
Positioning	Competitive testing	Clear preference signals

Low Risk (Validate Post-Launch)

• Scale assumptions
• Expansion opportunities
• Adjacent markets

MVP Strategy

Definition Criteria

Element	Question	Output
Core value	What's the one thing it MUST do?	Single feature
Target user	Who has this problem most acutely?	Narrow persona
Success metric	How do we know it works?	Measurable KPI
Timeline	What's the fastest we can test?	Weeks, not months

Feature Prioritization

Category	Include in MVP	Defer
Must-have	Core value delivery	Enhancement features
Differentiator	Key unique angle	Secondary differentiators
Table stakes	Minimum viable	Nice-to-haves

Validation Methodology

Customer Discovery Script

Opening (2 min)

• Build rapport
• Explain purpose: learning, not selling

Problem Exploration (10 min)

• "Tell me about the last time you dealt with [problem]..."
• "What did you try? What worked/didn't work?"
• "On a scale of 1-10, how painful is this?"

Solution Testing (5 min)

• "If you could wave a magic wand, what would happen?"
• "I'm working on something that [brief description]..."
• "Would this help? Why or why not?"

Commitment Testing (3 min)

• "Would you be interested in trying an early version?"
• "What would you expect to pay for something like this?"
• "Can I follow up when we have something to show?"

Signal Interpretation

Signal	Meaning	Action
"I'd pay for this"	Interest	Get specific on price
"Keep me updated"	Lukewarm	Find stronger pain
"I already have X"	Competition	Differentiate or pivot
"Let me introduce you to..."	Enthusiasm	Strong signal

Decision Framework

Green Light (Proceed)

• 70%+ confirm problem exists
• 3+ paying commitments
• Clear differentiation
• Unit economics work

Yellow Light (Iterate)

• Mixed feedback on value prop
• Price resistance but interest
• Unclear positioning
• Channel uncertainty

Red Light (Pivot)

• <30% problem confirmation
• No willingness to pay
• Existing solutions "good enough"
• No user enthusiasm

PMF Indicators

Metric	Pre-PMF	At PMF	Strong PMF
Retention	<20%	40%+	60%+
NPS	<20	40+	60+
Word of mouth	<10%	25%+	40%+
Revenue growth	Flat	20%+ MoM	50%+ MoM
Inbound demand	None	Some	Pull > Push