Use when exploring alternative scenarios, testing assumptions through "what if" questions, understanding causal relationships, conducting pre-mortem analysis, stress testing decisions, or when user mentions counterfactuals, hypothetical scenarios, thought experiments, alternative futures, what-if analysis, or needs to challenge assumptions and explore possibilities.
Uses "what if" thinking to explore alternative scenarios and test assumptions through pre-mortem analysis, stress testing, and counterfactual reasoning. Triggered by phrases like "what if," "counterfactual," "pre-mortem," or when exploring hypothetical scenarios, challenging assumptions, or analyzing causal relationships.
/plugin marketplace add lyndonkl/claude/plugin install lyndonkl-thinking-frameworks-skills@lyndonkl/claudeThis skill inherits all available tools. When active, it can use any tool Claude has access to.
resources/evaluators/rubric_hypotheticals_counterfactuals.jsonresources/methodology.mdresources/template.mdHypotheticals and Counterfactuals uses "what if" thinking to explore alternative scenarios, test assumptions, understand causal relationships, and prepare for uncertainty. This skill guides you through counterfactual reasoning (what would have happened differently?), scenario exploration (what could happen?), pre-mortem analysis (imagine failure, identify causes), and stress testing decisions against alternative futures.
Use this skill when:
Trigger phrases: "what if", "counterfactual", "hypothetical scenario", "thought experiment", "alternative future", "pre-mortem", "stress test", "what could go wrong", "imagine if", "suppose that"
Hypotheticals and Counterfactuals combines forward-looking scenario exploration (hypotheticals) with backward-looking alternative history analysis (counterfactuals):
Core components:
Quick example:
Scenario: Startup deciding whether to pivot from B2B to B2C.
Counterfactual Analysis (Learning from past):
Pre-Mortem (Preparing for future):
Outcome: Decision to run parallel B2C pilot while maintaining B2B, de-risking pivot through counterfactual insights and pre-mortem preparation.
Core benefits:
Copy this checklist and track your progress:
Hypotheticals & Counterfactuals Progress:
- [ ] Step 1: Define the focal question
- [ ] Step 2: Generate counterfactuals or scenarios
- [ ] Step 3: Develop each scenario
- [ ] Step 4: Identify implications and insights
- [ ] Step 5: Extract actions or decisions
- [ ] Step 6: Monitor and update
Step 1: Define the focal question
What are you exploring? Past decision (counterfactual)? Future possibility (hypothetical)? Assumption to test? See resources/template.md.
Step 2: Generate counterfactuals or scenarios
Counterfactual: Change one key factor, ask "what would have happened?" Hypothetical: Imagine future scenarios (2-4 plausible alternatives). See resources/template.md and resources/methodology.md.
Step 3: Develop each scenario
Describe what's different, trace implications, identify key assumptions. Make it vivid and concrete. See resources/template.md and resources/methodology.md.
Step 4: Identify implications and insights
What does each scenario teach? What assumptions are tested? What risks revealed? See resources/methodology.md.
Step 5: Extract actions or decisions
What should we do differently based on these scenarios? Hedge against downside? Prepare for upside? See resources/template.md.
Step 6: Monitor and update
Track which scenario is unfolding. Update plans as reality diverges from expectations. See resources/methodology.md.
Validate using resources/evaluators/rubric_hypotheticals_counterfactuals.json. Minimum standard: Average score ≥ 3.5.
Pattern 1: Pre-Mortem (Prospective Hindsight)
Pattern 2: Counterfactual Causal Analysis
Pattern 3: Three Scenarios (Optimistic, Baseline, Pessimistic)
Pattern 4: 2×2 Scenario Matrix
Pattern 5: Assumption Reversal
Pattern 6: Stress Test (Extreme Scenarios)
Critical requirements:
Plausibility constraint: Scenarios must be possible, not just imaginable. "What if gravity reversed?" is not useful counterfactual. Stay within bounds of plausibility given current knowledge.
Minimal rewrite principle (counterfactuals): Change as little as possible. "What if we had chosen Y instead of X?" not "What if we had chosen Y and market doubled and competitor failed?" Isolate causal factor.
Avoid hindsight bias: Pre-mortem assumes failure, but don't just list things that went wrong in similar past failures. Generate new failure modes specific to this context.
Specify mechanism: Don't just state outcome ("sales would be higher"), explain HOW ("sales would be higher because lower price → higher conversion → more customers despite lower margin").
Assign probabilities (scenarios): Don't treat all scenarios as equally likely. Estimate rough probabilities (e.g., 60% baseline, 25% pessimistic, 15% optimistic). Avoids equal-weight fallacy.
Time horizon clarity: Specify WHEN in future. "Product fails" is vague. "In 6 months, adoption <1000 users" is concrete. Enables tracking.
Extract actions, not just stories: Scenarios are useless without implications. Always end with "so what should we do?" Prepare, hedge, pivot, or double-down.
Update scenarios: Reality evolves. Quarterly review: which scenario is unfolding? Update probabilities and plans accordingly.
Common pitfalls:
Counterfactual vs. Hypothetical:
| Type | Direction | Question | Purpose | Example |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counterfactual | Backward (past) | "What would have happened if...?" | Understand causality, learn from past | "What if we had launched in EU first?" |
| Hypothetical | Forward (future) | "What could happen if...?" | Explore futures, prepare for uncertainty | "What if competitor launches free tier?" |
Scenario types:
| Type | # Scenarios | Structure | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Three scenarios | 3 | Optimistic, Baseline, Pessimistic | General forecasting, strategic planning |
| 2×2 matrix | 4 | Two uncertainties create quadrants | Exploring interaction of two drivers |
| Cone of uncertainty | Continuous | Range widens over time | Long-term planning (5-10 years) |
| Pre-mortem | 1 | Imagine failure, list causes | Risk identification before launch |
| Stress test | 2-4 | Extreme scenarios (best/worst) | Decision robustness testing |
Pre-mortem process (6 steps):
2×2 Scenario Matrix (example):
Uncertainties: (1) Market adoption rate, (2) Regulatory environment
| Slow Adoption | Fast Adoption | |
|---|---|---|
| Strict Regulation | "Constrained Growth" | "Regulated Scale" |
| Loose Regulation | "Patient Build" | "Wild West Growth" |
Assumption reversal questions:
Inputs required:
Outputs produced:
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