From thinking-frameworks-skills
Creates strategic portfolio roadmaps sizing and sequencing initiative bets across H1/H2/H3 horizons, balancing core/adjacent/transformational risks, with exit/scale criteria for resource allocation. Useful for multi-initiative prioritization and planning.
npx claudepluginhub lyndonkl/claude --plugin thinking-frameworks-skillsThis skill uses the workspace's default tool permissions.
**When NOT to use:** Single initiative with clear priority (use one-pager-prd or project-risk-register instead), purely operational prioritization without strategic horizons (use prioritization-effort-impact), or no resource constraints or trade-offs.
Generates design tokens/docs from CSS/Tailwind/styled-components codebases, audits visual consistency across 10 dimensions, detects AI slop in UI.
Records polished WebM UI demo videos of web apps using Playwright with cursor overlay, natural pacing, and three-phase scripting. Activates for demo, walkthrough, screen recording, or tutorial requests.
Delivers idiomatic Kotlin patterns for null safety, immutability, sealed classes, coroutines, Flows, extensions, DSL builders, and Gradle DSL. Use when writing, reviewing, refactoring, or designing Kotlin code.
When NOT to use: Single initiative with clear priority (use one-pager-prd or project-risk-register instead), purely operational prioritization without strategic horizons (use prioritization-effort-impact), or no resource constraints or trade-offs.
Copy this checklist and track your progress:
Portfolio Roadmapping Bets Progress:
- [ ] Step 1: Define portfolio theme and constraints
- [ ] Step 2: Inventory and size all bets
- [ ] Step 3: Sequence bets across horizons
- [ ] Step 4: Set exit and scale criteria
- [ ] Step 5: Balance and validate portfolio
Step 1: Define portfolio theme and constraints
Clarify the strategic theme (north star), time horizons (H1/H2/H3 definitions), resource constraints (budget, people, time), and portfolio balance targets (e.g., 70/20/10 rule). See Portfolio Theme & Constraints for guidance.
Step 2: Inventory and size all bets
List all candidate initiatives, size each by effort (S/M/L/XL) and impact potential (1x/3x/10x), categorize by type (core/adjacent/transformational), and identify dependencies. For simple cases use resources/template.md. For complex cases with 15+ bets or multiple themes, study resources/methodology.md.
Step 3: Sequence bets across horizons
Assign each bet to H1 (now), H2 (next), or H3 (later) based on dependencies, strategic timing, learning sequencing, and capacity constraints. See Sequencing & Dependencies for sequencing heuristics.
Step 4: Set exit and scale criteria
For each bet, define what success looks like (scale criteria: double down, expand scope) and what failure looks like (exit criteria: kill, deprioritize, pivot). See Exit & Scale Criteria for examples.
Step 5: Balance and validate portfolio
Check portfolio balance (are we too conservative or too aggressive?), validate resource feasibility (can we actually staff this?), and self-assess using resources/evaluators/rubric_portfolio_roadmapping_bets.json. Minimum standard: ≥3.5 average score. See Portfolio Balance Checks.
Product Portfolio (multiple features/products):
Technology Portfolio (platform, infrastructure, tech debt):
Innovation Portfolio (R&D, experiments, ventures):
Marketing Portfolio (campaigns, channels, experiments):
Small Bets (1-2 weeks, 1-2 people):
Medium Bets (1-3 months, 3-5 people):
Large Bets (3-6 months, 5-10 people):
X-Large Bets (6-12+ months, 10+ people):
Core Bets (Low Risk, Incremental Return):
Adjacent Bets (Medium Risk, Substantial Return):
Transformational Bets (High Risk, Breakthrough Return):
Define the strategic anchor for your portfolio:
Theme: The overarching goal (e.g., "Grow enterprise revenue 3x", "Achieve platform parity", "Launch in APAC")
Time Horizons:
Resource Constraints:
Portfolio Balance Targets:
Types: Technical (infrastructure), Learning (insights), Strategic (validation), Resource (capacity)
Heuristics: Dependencies first, learn before scaling, quick wins early, long bets start early, hedge portfolio
Exit (kill): Time-based ("90 days"), Metric ("<5% adoption"), Cost (">$X"), Strategic ("market shifts") Scale (double-down): Adoption (">20%"), Engagement (">3x baseline"), Revenue (">1.5x target"), Efficiency ("<$X CAC")
Example: AI chatbot bet | Exit: Deflection <30% after 60d OR sentiment <-20% | Scale: Deflection >50% AND sentiment >70%
Risk: ✓ ~70% core, ~20% adjacent, ~10% transformational | ❌ >80% core (too safe) or >30% transformational (too risky) Horizon: ✓ ~50-60% H1, ~25-30% H2, ~15-20% H3 | ❌ >70% H1 (no future) or >40% H3 (no near-term) Capacity: Effort ≤ capacity × 0.8 (20% slack) | Example: 10 eng → 48 EM/6mo → max 38 EM in H1 Impact: Portfolio ladders to theme (risk-adjusted) | Example: "3x revenue" → bets sum to 4.7x potential → 50% fail = 2.35x expected → add more bets
Problem Framing:
Bet Sizing:
Sequencing:
Exit & Scale Criteria:
Portfolio Balance:
Resources:
Success Criteria:
Common Mistakes: