hypotheticals-counterfactuals

Hypotheticals and Counterfactuals

Table of Contents

• Workflow
• Common Patterns
• Guardrails
• Quick Reference

Workflow

Copy this checklist and track your progress:

Hypotheticals & Counterfactuals Progress:
- [ ] Step 1: Define the focal question
- [ ] Step 2: Generate counterfactuals or scenarios
- [ ] Step 3: Develop each scenario
- [ ] Step 4: Identify implications and insights
- [ ] Step 5: Extract actions or decisions
- [ ] Step 6: Monitor and update

Step 1: Define the focal question

What are you exploring? Past decision (counterfactual)? Future possibility (hypothetical)? Assumption to test? See resources/template.md.

Step 2: Generate counterfactuals or scenarios

Counterfactual: Change one key factor, ask "what would have happened?" Hypothetical: Imagine future scenarios (2-4 plausible alternatives). See resources/template.md and resources/methodology.md.

Step 3: Develop each scenario

Describe what's different, trace implications, identify key assumptions. Make it vivid and concrete. See resources/template.md and resources/methodology.md.

Step 4: Identify implications and insights

What does each scenario teach? What assumptions are tested? What risks revealed? See resources/methodology.md.

Step 5: Extract actions or decisions

What should we do differently based on these scenarios? Hedge against downside? Prepare for upside? See resources/template.md.

Step 6: Monitor and update

Track which scenario is unfolding. Update plans as reality diverges from expectations. See resources/methodology.md.

Validate using resources/evaluators/rubric_hypotheticals_counterfactuals.json. Minimum standard: Average score ≥ 3.5.

Common Patterns

Pattern 1: Pre-Mortem (Prospective Hindsight)

• Format: Imagine it's future date, project failed. List reasons why.
• Best for: Project planning, risk identification before launch
• Process: (1) Set future date, (2) Assume failure, (3) List causes, (4) Prioritize top 3-5 risks, (5) Mitigate now
• When: Before major launch, strategic decision, resource commitment
• Output: Risk list with mitigations

Pattern 2: Counterfactual Causal Analysis

• Format: "What would have happened if we had done X instead of Y?"
• Best for: Learning from past decisions, understanding what mattered
• Process: (1) Identify decision, (2) Imagine alternative, (3) Trace different outcome, (4) Identify causal factor
• When: Post-mortem, retrospective, learning from success/failure
• Output: Causal insight (X caused Y because...)

Pattern 3: Three Scenarios (Optimistic, Baseline, Pessimistic)

• Format: Describe best case, expected case, worst case futures
• Best for: Strategic planning, forecasting, resource allocation
• Process: (1) Define time horizon, (2) Describe three futures, (3) Assign probabilities, (4) Plan for each
• When: Annual planning, market uncertainty, investment decisions
• Output: Three detailed scenarios with implications

Pattern 4: 2×2 Scenario Matrix

• Format: Two key uncertainties create four quadrants (scenarios)
• Best for: Exploring interaction of two critical unknowns
• Process: (1) Identify two key uncertainties, (2) Define extremes, (3) Develop four scenarios, (4) Name each world
• When: Strategic planning with multiple drivers of uncertainty
• Output: Four distinct future worlds with narratives

Pattern 5: Assumption Reversal

• Format: "What if our key assumption is backwards?"
• Best for: Challenging mental models, unlocking innovation
• Process: (1) List key assumptions, (2) Reverse each, (3) Explore implications, (4) Identify if reversal plausible
• When: Stuck in conventional thinking, need breakthrough
• Output: New perspectives, potential pivots

Pattern 6: Stress Test (Extreme Scenarios)

• Format: Push key variables to extremes, test if decision holds
• Best for: Risk management, decision robustness testing
• Process: (1) Identify decision, (2) List key variables, (3) Set to extremes, (4) Check if decision still valid
• When: High-stakes decisions, need to ensure resilience
• Output: Decision validation or hedges needed

Guardrails

Key requirements:

1. Plausibility constraint: Scenarios must be possible, not just imaginable. "What if gravity reversed?" is not useful counterfactual. Stay within bounds of plausibility given current knowledge.

2. Minimal rewrite principle (counterfactuals): Change as little as possible. "What if we had chosen Y instead of X?" not "What if we had chosen Y and market doubled and competitor failed?" Isolate causal factor.

3. Avoid hindsight bias: Pre-mortem assumes failure, but don't just list things that went wrong in similar past failures. Generate new failure modes specific to this context.

4. Specify mechanism: Don't just state outcome ("sales would be higher"), explain HOW ("sales would be higher because lower price → higher conversion → more customers despite lower margin").

5. Assign probabilities (scenarios): Don't treat all scenarios as equally likely. Estimate rough probabilities (e.g., 60% baseline, 25% pessimistic, 15% optimistic). Avoids equal-weight fallacy.

6. Time horizon clarity: Specify WHEN in future. "Product fails" is vague. "In 6 months, adoption <1000 users" is concrete. Enables tracking.

7. Extract actions, not just stories: Scenarios are useless without implications. Always end with "so what should we do?" Prepare, hedge, pivot, or double-down.

8. Update scenarios: Reality evolves. Quarterly review: which scenario is unfolding? Update probabilities and plans accordingly.

Common pitfalls:

• ❌ Confusing counterfactual with fantasy: "What if we had $100M funding from start?" vs. realistic "What if we had raised $2M seed instead of $1M?"
• ❌ Too many scenarios: 10 scenarios = analysis paralysis. Stick to 2-4 meaningful, distinct futures.
• ❌ Scenarios too similar: Three scenarios that differ only in magnitude (10% growth, 15% growth, 20% growth). Need qualitatively different worlds.
• ❌ No causal mechanism: "Sales would be 2× higher" without explaining why. Must specify how change leads to outcome.
• ❌ Hindsight bias in pre-mortem: Just listing past failures. Need to imagine new, context-specific risks.
• ❌ Ignoring low-probability, high-impact: "Black swan won't happen" until it does. Include tail risks.

Quick Reference

Counterfactual vs. Hypothetical:

Type	Direction	Question	Purpose	Example
Counterfactual	Backward (past)	"What would have happened if...?"	Understand causality, learn from past	"What if we had launched in EU first?"
Hypothetical	Forward (future)	"What could happen if...?"	Explore futures, prepare for uncertainty	"What if competitor launches free tier?"

Scenario types:

Type	# Scenarios	Structure	Best For
Three scenarios	3	Optimistic, Baseline, Pessimistic	General forecasting, strategic planning
2×2 matrix	4	Two uncertainties create quadrants	Exploring interaction of two drivers
Cone of uncertainty	Continuous	Range widens over time	Long-term planning (5-10 years)
Pre-mortem	1	Imagine failure, list causes	Risk identification before launch
Stress test	2-4	Extreme scenarios (best/worst)	Decision robustness testing

Pre-mortem process (6 steps):

1. Set future date: "It's 6 months from now..."
2. Assume failure: "...the project has failed completely."
3. Individual brainstorm: Each person writes 3-5 reasons (5 min, silent)
4. Share and consolidate: Round-robin sharing, group similar items
5. Vote on top risks: Dot voting or force-rank top 5 causes
6. Mitigate now: For each top risk, assign owner and mitigation action

2×2 Scenario Matrix (example):

Uncertainties: (1) Market adoption rate, (2) Regulatory environment

	Slow Adoption	Fast Adoption
Strict Regulation	"Constrained Growth"	"Regulated Scale"
Loose Regulation	"Patient Build"	"Wild West Growth"

Assumption reversal questions:

• "What if our biggest advantage is actually a liability?"
• "What if the problem we're solving isn't the real problem?"
• "What if our target customer is wrong?"
• "What if cheaper/slower is better than premium/fast?"
• "What if we're too early/too late, not right on time?"

Inputs required:

• Focal decision or event: What are you analyzing?
• Key uncertainties: What factors most shape outcomes?
• Time horizon: How far into future/past?
• Constraints: What must remain fixed vs. what can vary?
• Stakeholders: Who should contribute scenarios?

Outputs produced:

• counterfactual-analysis.md: Alternative history analysis with causal insights
• pre-mortem-risks.md: List of potential failure modes and mitigations
• scenarios.md: 2-4 future scenarios with narratives and implications
• action-plan.md: Decisions and preparations based on scenario insights