From private-credit
This skill fires automatically when performing quarterly portfolio monitoring, updating borrower tracking, evaluating credit trajectory, managing watchlists, or preparing for management calls.
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This skill fires automatically when performing quarterly portfolio monitoring, updating borrower tracking, evaluating credit trajectory, managing watchlists, or preparing for management calls.
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This skill fires automatically when performing quarterly portfolio monitoring, updating borrower tracking, evaluating credit trajectory, managing watchlists, or preparing for management calls.
This is the complete workflow from the moment a borrower's quarterly package arrives to the moment the review is ready for IC or portfolio review.
Open the borrower's quarterly financial package. Read through the first time quickly to get a sense of what is being reported:
Working top-down through the P&L, balance sheet, and cash flow statement (per the quarterly-package-extraction skill):
As you enter data and update the model, questions will naturally arise:
Compile these into a quarterly questions list as you work. Do not stop processing to investigate each one — note it and keep going. The questions list will be addressed in Step 6.
After the model is updated, build the full quarterly review package (typically PowerPoint):
At this point you have:
Send the compiled questions list to the management team, the agent (administrative agent for the facility), or whoever manages the relationship. Seek answers to every question on the list.
Sources for answers:
Once questions are answered:
The quarterly review is complete when:
Credit trajectory is not a single number — it is an assessment of direction across multiple financial dimensions. Evaluate each independently because they can send conflicting signals:
Revenue can be growing while margins deteriorate. EBITDA can be stable while cash flow declines (due to working capital consumption or increased capex). The credit story is built from the combination of these individual trends, not from any single metric.
When signals conflict, the analysis must explain why:
Category 1: EBITDA and Leverage Deterioration
| Performance vs. Plan | Classification | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 10-15% below plan | Watch closely | Heightened monitoring. More detailed questions. Track trajectory. |
| 20-25% below plan | Watchlist | Approaching covenant levels. Formal watchlist designation. Active IC flagging. |
| Covenant breach | Watchlist / Workout | 100% on watchlist. May require workout classification depending on severity and cure options. |
The borrower should be on the watchlist before a covenant breach, not after. The purpose of the watchlist is early identification. If a breach is the first time a borrower appears on the watchlist, the monitoring process failed.
Exception: A sudden, unexpected large decline within a single period that causes an immediate breach without prior warning signs. This happens but should be rare.
Category 2: Cash Flow and Liquidity
Even if revenue is acceptable and leverage has not deteriorated significantly:
Cash flow and liquidity can deteriorate independently of EBITDA — working capital consumption, capex spikes, or one-time cash outlays can drain liquidity while the P&L looks fine.
| Tier | Criteria | Response |
|---|---|---|
| Watch closely | Performance 10-15% off expectations. Early signs of deterioration. | Extra scrutiny on quarterly review. Deeper management questions. Track trajectory quarter by quarter. |
| Watchlist | Close to covenant breach (within 5-10% headroom). Performance 20-25% off plan. Liquidity thinning. | Formal IC flagging. Increased monitoring frequency if possible. Proactive engagement with management on remediation. Assessment of cure rights and amendment options. |
| Workout | Covenant breached. Significant performance deterioration. Liquidity crisis. | Active remediation plan. Amendment or waiver negotiations. Restructuring considerations. Frequent (monthly or more) updates to IC. |
Sustained improvement over multiple quarters (3+ quarters of trend reversal), covenant headroom rebuilt to comfortable levels (>20%), liquidity restored, and the underlying cause of deterioration addressed — not just temporarily masked.
A good management call question demonstrates that the analyst understands the business and the financials. After receiving the answers, the analyst should be able to answer any question IC might ask about the borrower's performance, trends, and key credit considerations.
Financial questions — driven by the numbers:
Narrative questions — driven by the business story:
The most common problem with junior analyst questions is that they stop at the first-order observation:
The second version shows the analyst traced the margin compression to its source, linked it to prior management commentary, and is asking a forward-looking question about when the investment pays off.
Every quarter, the analyst must refresh on the prior quarter's:
Compare the current quarter's numbers and narrative to the prior quarter. Track whether management is delivering on what they said. If they guided to margin recovery and margins continued to decline, that is a question.
When monitoring many portfolio companies, it is easy to forget details from the prior quarter. This is why written question logs and MD&A notes are essential — they provide continuity.
The workflow is the same. The difference is scrutiny and depth.
Performing credit (shelf credit):
Watchlist credit: