Use when the user asks to "plan contingencies", "create fallback plans", "define contingency reserves", "design trigger-response protocols", or "calculate schedule reserves". Activates when a stakeholder needs to develop fallback strategies for high-priority risks, calculate schedule and cost reserves from quantitative analysis, define trigger protocols for rapid contingency activation, or track reserve consumption over time.
From maonpx claudepluginhub javimontano/mao-discovery-frameworkThis skill is limited to using the following tools:
evals/evals.jsonexamples/README.mdexamples/sample-output.mdprompts/metaprompts.mdprompts/use-case-prompts.mdreferences/body-of-knowledge.mdreferences/knowledge-graph.mmdreferences/state-of-the-art.mdEnables AI agents to execute x402 payments with per-task budgets, spending controls, and non-custodial wallets via MCP tools. Use when agents pay for APIs, services, or other agents.
Compares coding agents like Claude Code and Aider on custom YAML-defined codebase tasks using git worktrees, measuring pass rate, cost, time, and consistency.
Designs and optimizes AI agent action spaces, tool definitions, observation formats, error recovery, and context for higher task completion rates.
TL;DR: Develops contingency plans and fallback strategies for high-priority risks. Calculates and manages contingency reserves (schedule and cost) based on quantitative risk analysis. Defines trigger-response protocols that enable rapid activation of pre-planned responses when risks materialize.
La contingencia no es "colchón" — es cobertura cuantificada contra incertidumbre. Cada peso y cada día de reserva debe rastrearse hasta un riesgo identificado. Los planes de contingencia se escriben cuando hay tiempo para pensar, se ejecutan cuando no lo hay. Un plan de contingencia que nadie ha leído es peor que no tener plan.
# Create contingency plans for top risks
/pm:contingency-planning $PROJECT --type=plans --risks="top-10"
# Calculate reserves from Monte Carlo results
/pm:contingency-planning $PROJECT --type=reserves --method="monte-carlo" --confidence=80
# Track reserve consumption
/pm:contingency-planning $PROJECT --type=tracking --period="2026-03"
Parameters:
| Parameter | Required | Description |
|---|---|---|
$PROJECT | Yes | Project identifier |
--type | Yes | plans, reserves, tracking, trigger-protocols |
--risks | No | Risk filter (top-5, top-10, all-high) |
--method | No | Reserve calculation method (emv, monte-carlo, percentage) |
--confidence | No | Confidence level for Monte Carlo (P50, P80, P90) |
{TIPO_PROYECTO}: All project types need contingency planning. Complex projects use Monte Carlo-based reserves; simpler projects use percentage-based reserves. Fixed-price contracts require tighter contingency management.
skills/contingency-planning/references/*.md for contingency plan templatesGood Contingency Plan:
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Risks covered | All High + Critical priority risks |
| Fallback plans | Step-by-step with owner and timeline |
| Reserve calculation | Based on Monte Carlo P80 or EMV sum |
| Trigger protocols | Specific, unambiguous activation conditions |
| Reserve tracking | Monthly burn-down with consumption analysis |
| Rehearsal | Annual tabletop for top 3 scenarios |
Bad Contingency Plan: A document saying "10% contingency reserve" without linking reserves to specific risks, no fallback plans, no trigger protocols, and no tracking mechanism. Fails because arbitrary percentage-based reserves provide no risk coverage assurance and no activation guidance when risks materialize.
| Resource | When to read | Location |
|---|---|---|
| Body of Knowledge | Before planning to understand reserve management theory | references/body-of-knowledge.md |
| State of the Art | When evaluating Monte Carlo simulation approaches | references/state-of-the-art.md |
| Knowledge Graph | To link contingency to risk register and budget | references/knowledge-graph.mmd |
| Use Case Prompts | When designing trigger protocols | prompts/use-case-prompts.md |
| Metaprompts | To generate contingency response cards | prompts/metaprompts.md |
| Sample Output | To calibrate expected contingency plan format | examples/sample-output.md |
Design and facilitate tabletop exercises that simulate contingency plan activation scenarios to validate plan effectiveness, identify gaps, and build team confidence before real contingencies occur.
The Fallback Plan Builder creates actionable, implementation-ready contingency plans that teams can execute under pressure without improvisation. This agent defines the alternative approach, maps every resource that must be pre-positioned, calculates timeline and cost impact, identifies decision authorities, and scripts the first 48 hours of activation so that the transition from primary plan to fallback is rapid and controlled. Each plan is designed to be self-contained — any competent project manager should be able to pick it up and execute without needing the original author.
## Fallback Plan — [Risk ID]: [Risk Title]
### 1. Risk Impact Summary
- **Scope Impact**: [Description]
- **Schedule Impact**: [Days/weeks of delay if unmitigated]
- **Cost Impact**: [Estimated additional cost]
- **Quality Impact**: [Description]
### 2. Alternative Approach
- **Strategy**: [Description of the fallback approach]
- **Rationale**: [Why this alternative is viable]
- **Constraints**: [Limitations of this approach]
- **Residual Risks**: [New risks introduced by the fallback]
### 3. Resource Requirements
| Resource Type | Description | Lead Time | Pre-positioned? |
|-------------------|--------------------------|-----------|-----------------|
| Personnel | [Role / skill] | [Days] | [Yes/No] |
| Infrastructure | [Description] | [Days] | [Yes/No] |
| Contracts/Vendors | [Description] | [Days] | [Yes/No] |
| Licenses/Tools | [Description] | [Days] | [Yes/No] |
### 4. Timeline & Cost Delta
- **Primary Plan Baseline**: [End date / budget]
- **Fallback Plan Estimate**: [End date / budget]
- **Schedule Delta**: [+/- days/weeks]
- **Cost Delta**: [+/- amount or FTE-months]
- **Ramp-Up Period**: [Time to reach full velocity on fallback]
### 5. Activation Protocol
- **Decision Authority**: [Role authorized to activate]
- **Activation Trigger**: [Reference to trigger scenario]
- **Stop Actions**: [Work that halts immediately]
- **Start Actions**: [Work that begins immediately]
- **Communication Plan**: [Who is notified, in what order]
### 6. 48-Hour Activation Timeline
| Hour | Action | Owner | Deliverable |
|-------|----------------------------------|--------------|----------------------|
| 0-2 | [Immediate action] | [Role] | [Output] |
| 2-8 | [Next actions] | [Role] | [Output] |
| 8-24 | [Day 1 actions] | [Role] | [Output] |
| 24-48 | [Day 2 actions] | [Role] | [Output] |
### 7. Pre-Positioning Checklist
- [ ] [Action to take now to reduce activation time]
- [ ] [Action to take now]
- [ ] [Action to take now]
The Reserve Allocator transforms the risk register into defensible contingency reserve figures for both schedule and budget. Rather than relying on arbitrary percentages, this agent applies three complementary methods — Expected Monetary Value (EMV) summation, percentage-based heuristics calibrated by project type, and Monte Carlo simulation confidence-gap analysis — then triangulates results to recommend a reserve that is neither dangerously lean nor politically bloated. The agent also defines drawdown rules, reserve governance, and reporting thresholds so that reserves are consumed transparently and replenished when new risks emerge.
## Contingency Reserve Analysis — [Project Name]
### 1. Method A — EMV Summation
| Risk ID | Risk Title | Probability | Cost Impact | Schedule Impact | EMV (Cost) | EMV (Schedule) |
|---------|----------------------|-------------|---------------|-----------------|--------------|----------------|
| R-001 | [Title] | [%] | [Amount] | [Days] | [Calculated] | [Calculated] |
| R-002 | [Title] | [%] | [Amount] | [Days] | [Calculated] | [Calculated] |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| **Total EMV** | | | | | **[Sum]** | **[Sum]** |
### 2. Method B — Percentage-Based Benchmark
- **Project Type**: [Classification]
- **Industry Benchmark Range**: [X% – Y%]
- **Base Estimate**: [Amount / Duration]
- **Percentage-Based Reserve**: [Calculated range]
- **Comparison to EMV**: [Within range / Above / Below]
### 3. Method C — Monte Carlo Confidence Gap
- **P50 Estimate (Deterministic)**: [Amount / Duration]
- **P75 Estimate**: [Amount / Duration]
- **P80 Estimate**: [Amount / Duration]
- **Confidence Gap (P50 → P80)**: [Amount / Duration]
- **Recommended Simulation Reserve**: [Amount / Duration]
### 4. Triangulated Recommendation
| Method | Cost Reserve | Schedule Reserve | Weight |
|---------------------|---------------|------------------|---------|
| EMV Summation | [Amount] | [Days] | [%] |
| Percentage-Based | [Amount] | [Days] | [%] |
| Monte Carlo Gap | [Amount] | [Days] | [%] |
| **Weighted Reserve**| **[Amount]** | **[Days]** | **100%**|
### 5. Reserve Allocation Buckets
| Bucket | Cost | Schedule | Governance Level |
|-------------------------------|------------|------------|----------------------|
| Known-Risk Contingency | [Amount] | [Days] | Project Manager |
| Management Reserve (Unknown) | [Amount] | [Days] | Sponsor / Steering |
| Schedule Buffer (Critical) | — | [Days] | Project Manager |
### 6. Drawdown & Governance Rules
- **Drawdown Authority**: [Who can authorize reserve use, by bucket]
- **Reporting Cadence**: [Weekly/Biweekly reserve status]
- **Replenishment Trigger**: [When to reassess and add reserves]
- **Escalation Threshold**: [% consumed that triggers steering committee review]
- **Audit Trail**: [How each drawdown is documented]
The Trigger Scenario Designer transforms vague risk conditions into precise, measurable trigger scenarios that leave no ambiguity about when a contingency plan must activate. This agent defines leading indicators, lagging indicators, threshold values, escalation ladders, and monitoring cadences so that project teams detect deterioration early and act decisively rather than debating whether the situation "is bad enough." Every trigger is tied to a data source, an owner, and a response window.
## Trigger Scenario Card — [Risk ID]: [Risk Title]
| Field | Value |
|------------------------|--------------------------------------------|
| **Risk ID** | R-XXX |
| **Risk Description** | [Brief description] |
| **Contingency Plan** | [Reference to contingency plan] |
### Trigger Tiers
#### Yellow — Monitor Closely
- **Indicator**: [Leading indicator name]
- **Threshold**: [Measurable value]
- **Data Source**: [Where/how measured]
- **Monitoring Frequency**: [Daily/Weekly/Per sprint]
- **Owner**: [Role]
- **Response Window**: [Time to escalate or de-escalate]
#### Orange — Prepare Contingency Resources
- **Indicator**: [Indicator name]
- **Threshold**: [Measurable value]
- **Data Source**: [Where/how measured]
- **Owner**: [Role]
- **Response Window**: [Time to pre-position resources]
#### Red — Activate Contingency Plan
- **Indicator**: [Indicator name]
- **Threshold**: [Measurable value]
- **Data Source**: [Where/how measured]
- **Owner**: [Role]
- **Response Window**: [Time to full activation]
### Validation Notes
- **Historical Basis**: [Analogous data or rationale]
- **False Positive Mitigation**: [How over-sensitivity is controlled]
- **Last Reviewed**: [Date]