good-strategy-bad-strategy

Good Strategy / Bad Strategy

Framework for separating real strategy from the ambitious wish-lists, motivational goals, and buzzword-laden documents that pass for it. Based on Richard Rumelt's thesis that most "strategies" are not strategies at all — they are statements of desire. A real strategy names the challenge, chooses an approach, and coordinates actions so that power is concentrated where it matters.

Core Principle

A strategy is a way through a difficulty, an approach to overcoming an obstacle, a response to a challenge. (McKinsey — Rumelt)

If a document does not name a challenge and does not propose a coordinated way through it, it is not a strategy — however ambitious, well-funded, or unanimously supported. The heart of good strategy is insight into the situation and the honest choice of where to concentrate effort. Most bad strategy is the active refusal to make that choice.

The structure: every real strategy has a Kernel (diagnosis → guiding policy → coherent action). Every sustained advantage comes from applying one or more sources of power (leverage, focus, proximate objectives, chain-link systems, design, dynamics, and exploiting competitor inertia). Every bad strategy displays one or more of the four hallmarks (fluff, failure to face the challenge, mistaking goals for strategy, bad strategic objectives).

Scoring

Goal: 10/10. When reviewing or building a strategy, score it against the principles below. A 10/10 has (a) a sharply named diagnosis, (b) a guiding policy that channels action, (c) coherent mutually-reinforcing actions, (d) at least one source of power consciously applied, and (e) zero hallmarks of bad strategy. Lower scores indicate missing kernel elements, uncoordinated actions, or uncorrected fluff. Always return the score and the specific gap to close.

The Framework

1. The Kernel of Good Strategy

Core concept: Every good strategy has the same three-part logical structure. Rumelt: the kernel contains "a diagnosis that defines or explains the nature of the challenge, a guiding policy for dealing with the challenge, and a set of coherent actions that are designed to carry out the guiding policy." (Sachin Rekhi)

Why it works: Separating ends (goals), ways (strategy), and means (actions) forces honesty. You cannot hide behind ambition once the challenge is named, nor behind a slogan once the actions must cohere.

Key insights:

• Diagnosis — "The most common cause of bad strategy is a weak diagnosis." (Admired Leadership) Simplify complexity by identifying one or two critical aspects; demote everything else to secondary.
• Guiding Policy — channels action without specifying every step, "like the guardrails on a highway." (WebSearch result summary of Rumelt)
• Coherent Actions — "Coordination provides the most basic leverage or advantage in strategy." Actions must reinforce each other, not merely sit on the same list. (WebSearch / Rekhi)
• Nvidia's rise is the canonical illustration: diagnosis (3D graphics cards were the future) → guiding policy (shift from multi-media to focused GPU leadership) → coherent actions (ship a new chip every 6 months, three parallel design teams, DirectX alignment). (WebSearch / Penguin)
• Universal buy-in is a warning sign: "Any strategy that has universal buy-in signals the absence of choice." (Admired Leadership)

Product applications:

Context	Application
SaaS	Diagnosis names the #1 friction blocking activation; guiding policy chooses segment (SMB vs enterprise); coherent actions across product, pricing, onboarding, sales reinforce that segment choice.
Coaching / info-product	Diagnose why your audience stalls; guiding policy picks one transformation to own; actions (offer, content, community) coordinate around that transformation.
E-commerce	Diagnosis: channel concentration risk, unit-economics break-point, or category crowding. Guiding policy: the one lever that fixes it. Actions: SKU, acquisition mix, margin structure.
Agency / services	Diagnosis names where client results are actually won. Guiding policy narrows ICP. Actions (packaging, pricing, delivery, referral) all reinforce ICP choice.
Product roadmap	Instead of "themes," name the single obstacle blocking the next growth step; decide the guiding policy (compete on speed, quality, or reach); prune features that do not serve it.
Startup pitch deck	The "problem" slide is the diagnosis; the "why us / wedge" slide is the guiding policy; the "plan" slide must show coherent, mutually reinforcing actions — not a feature list.

Copy patterns (use these phrasings):

• "The challenge is…" (not "our vision is…")
• "Given that diagnosis, our guiding policy is to…"
• "These actions cohere because each one [reinforces / depends on / amplifies] the others."
• "We are explicitly choosing not to…"
• "The single critical obstacle is…"

Diagnostic questions:

• "What is the one critical obstacle this plan is designed to overcome? Point to the sentence."
• "Strip every sentence that only states a desired outcome — what plan is left?"
• "Which two actions reinforce each other? Which two could be removed with no loss?"
• "Who will be unhappy about this strategy? If no one, you have not made a choice."

Ethical boundary: Don't call a goal a strategy. "Often what passes for strategy is really a goal or, at best, a tactic." (Admired Leadership) Mislabeling is the first dishonesty.

See references/kernel.md for the full three-part structure, worked examples, and the "choose what not to do" drill.

2. The Four Hallmarks of Bad Strategy

Core concept: Bad strategy is not the absence of strategy — it is an active pathology with recognizable signatures. Rumelt names four. (McKinsey)

Why it works: Most executives cannot recognize bad strategy when it lands on their desk because it wears the costume of seriousness — frameworks, lists, inspirational language. Naming the four hallmarks turns a vague discomfort into a diagnostic checklist.

The four hallmarks:

Hallmark	Definition	Tell-tale	Rumelt's example
Fluff	"A superficial statement of the obvious combined with a generous sprinkling of buzzwords that masquerade as expertise." (BRG)	Strip out the jargon — does anything non-obvious remain?	A retail bank's "customer-centric intermediation" — i.e., "we take deposits and make loans." (Business2Community)
Failure to face the challenge	"If the challenge is not defined, it is difficult or impossible to assess the quality of the strategy." (McKinsey)	No named obstacle; the plan jumps straight to initiatives.	International Harvester 1979 — plans projected market-share gains without mentioning the inefficient plants or worst-in-industry labor relations; a strike collapsed the company. (McKinsey)
Mistaking goals for strategy	"Simply being ambitious is not a strategy… A good strategy honestly acknowledges the challenges being faced and provides an approach to overcoming them." (BRG)	The document is a list of desired outcomes with no route.	"Often what passes for strategy is really a goal or, at best, a tactic." (Admired Leadership)
Bad strategic objectives	"Bad strategic objectives are those that fail to address critical issues or that are impracticable." Two forms: dog's dinner (long unprioritized list) and blue-sky (restatement of the end state). (McKinsey)	A list labeled "strategies" / a goal restated with no mechanism.	"A long list of things to do, often mislabeled as 'strategies' or 'objectives,' is not a strategy." (McKinsey)

Why bad strategy happens (Rumelt's three roots):

1. Unwillingness or inability to choose — "Any strategy that has universal buy-in signals the absence of choice." (Admired Leadership)
2. Template-style planning — filling in vision / mission / values / strategies as a substitute for analysis. (Admired Leadership)
3. "New Thought" / motivational thinking — belief that a positive attitude is a plan. "Ignoring negative outcomes does not set you up for success… It crowds out critical thinking." (Admired Leadership)

Copy patterns for auditors:

• "If I strip the jargon, what non-obvious claim remains?"
• "What obstacle is this document explicitly designed to overcome?"
• "This is a goal, not a strategy — where is the route?"
• "This is a dog's dinner — which two of these twelve 'priorities' are the real ones?"
• "This is a blue-sky objective — what is the mechanism?"

Ethical boundary: Calling goals, lists, or buzzwords "strategy" in front of a board or team is not just imprecise — it substitutes motion for judgment and lets leadership off the hook for making the hard choice.

See references/bad-strategy-hallmarks.md for extended case studies (Harvester, DEC, LAUSD) and the full audit checklist.

3. The Nine Sources of Power

Core concept: Good strategies produce disproportionate results because they apply one or more sources of power — structural imbalances that turn effort into outsized outcome. Rumelt identifies nine. (Sachin Rekhi; Jeff Zych)

Why it works: Without a source of power, coherent action is still just action. The sources of power are what make a strategy pay rather than merely move. Good strategy is finding an imbalance and exploiting it.

The nine sources:

#	Source	Definition (cited)	Example
1	Leverage	"Using the limited resources at hand to achieve the biggest result." (Zych) Find an imbalance and exploit it for disproportionate payoff.	Schwarzkopf's "left hook" in Desert Storm — mass concentrated against the weakest flank. (WebSearch / Rumelt)
2	Proximate Objectives	"Choose an objective that is close enough at hand to be feasible." (Zych) Feasible next targets, not heroic end states.	Kennedy's moon landing — a target the organization could plausibly hit. (Zych)
3	Chain-Link Systems	"A system has chain-link logic when its performance is limited by its weakest link." (Zych) Quality dominates quantity; one weak link gates the whole.	IKEA — design, logistics, flat-pack, store experience all reinforce each other; no single link can be copied in isolation. (Zych)
4	Design	"Good strategy is design — fitting various pieces together so they work as a coherent whole." (Zych)	Starbucks' vertical integration enabling "mutual adjustment of multiple elements." (Blas)
5	Focus	"Attacking a segment of the market with a product or service that delivers more value." (Zych)	Nvidia's focus on GPUs over multi-media chips. (WebSearch / Rumelt)
6	Growth	"Growing the size of the business is not a strategy — it is the result." (Zych) Real growth comes from increasing demand for distinctive capabilities, not from pursuit of size.	Wal-Mart: "The network replaced the store." Walton's small-town network produced growth that Kmart could not match. (Blas)
7	Using Advantage	"Producing at a lower cost than your competitors, or delivering more perceived value." (Zych) Press the edge where you are asymmetrically strong; avoid contests of equals.	Crown Cork & Seal's focused service to hard-to-serve customers (referenced across summaries).
8	Dynamics	"Waves of change that roll through an industry." (Zych) Ride a transition; don't try to move the whole ocean.	Nvidia riding the 3D-graphics wave. (WebSearch)
9	Inertia & Entropy	Inertia: "An organization's unwillingness or inability to adapt to changing circumstances." Entropy: "Causes organizations to become less organized and less focused over time." (Zych) Competitor inertia is a source of power for you.	Netflix vs. Blockbuster (inertia); GM (entropy). (Zych)

Copy patterns when applying sources of power:

• "Our advantage comes from…" (name the specific asymmetry)
• "The nearest feasible target is…" (not the ten-year vision)
• "The weakest link in our system is… therefore…"
• "The wave we are riding is…"
• "Our competitor cannot respond quickly because…"
• "We will not grow by [doing more] but by [deepening the distinctive capability]."

Ethical boundary: Don't invent an "advantage" you do not have. The test is whether a competitor could copy it this quarter. If yes, it is not an advantage — it is a feature.

See references/sources-of-power.md for each lever expanded with mechanism, case study, and application drill.

The Process (Writing a Strategy from Scratch)

1. Comprehend the situation. Spend the majority of your effort here. "The most common cause of bad strategy is a weak diagnosis." (Admired Leadership) Look for the structural feature — the crux — that dominates the situation.
2. Write the diagnosis as one sentence. Name the single biggest obstacle. If it takes a paragraph, you have not diagnosed yet.
3. Choose the guiding policy. Decide how you will confront the obstacle — the channel, the lever, the approach. Guardrails, not a list.
4. Select the source(s) of power. Which of the nine asymmetries does this policy exploit? If none, return to step 3.
5. Design coherent actions. List 3–5 actions. Each must directly carry out the guiding policy AND reinforce at least one other action. Kill the rest.
6. State what you will not do. If there is no sacrifice, you have not made a choice. Expect at least one stakeholder to be unhappy.
7. Audit against the four hallmarks. Fluff? Failure to face the challenge? Goals masquerading as strategy? Dog's-dinner or blue-sky objectives? Fix before shipping.
8. Stress-test for inertia. Name specifically why competitors cannot or will not respond — that is your time window.

See references/process.md for worksheets, templates, and worked examples.

Common Mistakes

Mistake	Why it fails	Fix
Weak or absent diagnosis	"The most common cause of bad strategy is a weak diagnosis." (Admired Leadership)	Spend the bulk of your work naming the crux in one sentence.
Confusing goals with strategy	Goals describe destination; strategy is the route through an obstacle. (BRG)	Separate ends (goals), ways (strategy), means (actions).
Seeking universal buy-in	"Any strategy that has universal buy-in signals the absence of choice." (Admired Leadership)	Make real trade-offs; name what you will NOT do.
Template planning (vision/mission/values/strategies)	Substitutes form for analysis; produces boilerplate.	Start from the diagnosis, not the template. Build the kernel.
Positive-thinking as substitute for analysis	"Ignoring negative outcomes does not set you up for success." (Admired Leadership)	Anticipate customer and competitor reactions; stress-test for failure.
Dog's-dinner objective lists	"A long list of things to do… is not a strategy." (McKinsey)	Prioritize to 3–5 coherent actions attacking the diagnosis.
Blue-sky objectives	Restate the desired end state with no mechanism. (McKinsey)	Convert each to actions close enough to current capability to be feasible.
Uncoordinated initiatives	Actions must reinforce each other; otherwise they cancel out. (Rekhi)	Require each action to amplify at least one other.
No named source of power	Coherent action with no asymmetry just burns resources.	Identify which of the nine sources the strategy exploits; if none, rework.
Growth as the strategy	"Growing the size of the business is not a strategy — it is the result." (Zych)	Target the distinctive capability whose increased demand will produce growth.

Quick Diagnostic — Is This a Real Strategy?

Question	Good strategy	Bad strategy
What is the challenge?	One crisp sentence naming the obstacle.	Not stated, or stated as a goal.
What is the guiding policy?	A clear approach with explicit trade-offs.	Values, mission, or a list of priorities.
What are the actions?	3–5 coordinated actions that reinforce each other.	A long list labeled "strategies."
What source of power does this exploit?	Leverage / focus / dynamics / chain-link / advantage / inertia — named.	None identifiable.
Who will be unhappy?	At least one clear loser of attention or budget.	Nobody — universal buy-in.
Strip the buzzwords — what remains?	Specific, non-obvious claims.	Fluff.
Do the actions have a mechanism to work?	Yes — causal path is stated.	No — blue-sky.

Score 5+/7 = strategy. Below that = plan dressed as strategy.

Triggers — When to Use This Skill

• "Is this a real strategy?"
• "Our strategy is just goals / fluff."
• "Diagnose our strategy / audit this plan."
• "Write a strategy for [X]."
• "What's our guiding policy?"
• "Our roadmap has no coherence."
• "How do we make real trade-offs?"
• "Where is our advantage?"
• "Everyone agreed to the plan" (red flag)
• "The challenge is…" (anchor phrase)

References

• references/kernel.md — the three-part kernel, worked examples
• references/bad-strategy-hallmarks.md — the four hallmarks and the roots of bad strategy
• references/sources-of-power.md — the nine levers, each with mechanism and drill
• references/case-studies.md — Apple, Wal-Mart, Nvidia, Desert Storm, International Harvester, 7-Eleven Japan, Starbucks, IKEA
• references/process.md — writing a strategy from scratch, worksheets
• references/checklist.md — audit checklist
• sources.md — full source manifest

Further Reading

• Rumelt, Richard P. Good Strategy Bad Strategy: The Difference and Why It Matters. Crown Business, 2011. ISBN 978-0307886231.
• Rumelt, Richard P. The Crux: How Leaders Become Strategists. 2022. (Follow-up: "the crux is the single most important point of challenge.")
• Rumelt, "The perils of bad strategy," McKinsey Quarterly, June 2011. Link

About the Author

Richard P. Rumelt is a professor emeritus at the UCLA Anderson School of Management, where his work on strategy research earned him recognition as one of the most cited scholars in the field. Good Strategy Bad Strategy (2011) synthesized three decades of his teaching and consulting into a frontal critique of what passes for strategy in large organizations. Source: Penguin Random House author page; NASA APPEL review.