dora-check

Delivery Metrics Check

Assess delivery health using product-type-appropriate metrics. Check product_type from .claude/diamonds/active.yml to determine which assessment to run.

Product type routing (v0.11.0):

• software: Full DORA + APEX assessment (Parts 1-3 below)
• content_course, content_publication, content_media: Content Delivery Assessment (Part 4 below)
• ai_tool: AI Tool Assessment (Part 5 below) + DORA/APEX if code components exist
• service_offering: Service Delivery Assessment (Part 6 below)

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Software Products

Assess delivery health using Forsgren's five DORA metrics AND LinearB's APEX AI-era metrics.

Part 1: DORA Metrics (Forsgren)

Gather current metrics from CI/CD, deployment logs, incident records.

Note: DORA expanded from 4 to 5 metrics. "MTTR" was renamed to "Failed Deployment Recovery Time" (FDRT) for precision — the original name was ambiguous with other mean-time-to-X metrics. "Reliability" was added as the 5th metric in the 2024 State of DevOps report.

Deployment Frequency: How often does code reach production?

• Elite: On-demand (multiple deploys/day)
• High: Between once/day and once/week
• Medium: Between once/week and once/month
• Low: Less than once/month

Lead Time for Changes: Commit to production time?

• Elite: Less than one hour
• High: Between one day and one week
• Medium: Between one week and one month
• Low: More than one month

Change Failure Rate: % of deployments causing failure?

• Elite: 0-15%
• High: 16-30%
• Medium: 31-45%
• Low: 46-100%

Failed Deployment Recovery Time (FDRT): Time to restore service after a failed deployment?

• Elite: Less than one hour
• High: Less than one day
• Medium: Between one day and one week
• Low: More than one week

Formerly "Mean Time to Recovery (MTTR)." Renamed for precision — FDRT measures recovery from failed deployments specifically, not all incidents.

Reliability: Does the software meet or exceed its reliability targets?

• Elite: Meets or exceeds targets
• High: Slightly below targets
• Medium: Moderately below targets
• Low: Significantly below targets

Added in DORA 2024. Measures operational reliability via SLOs/SLIs. Connects to SRE metrics in Part 3.

Part 2: APEX Metrics (LinearB)

"Faster coding doesn't mean faster delivery."

Assess the four APEX pillars to detect AI-era delivery problems:

A — AI Leverage

• What % of PRs/code changes are AI-generated or AI-assisted?
• What is the AI suggestion acceptance rate? (Benchmark: 32.7% for AI vs 84.4% for human — LinearB 2026)
• What is the AI rework rate? (% of AI code rewritten within 21 days)
• Is AI code quality comparable to human code? (Check corrections.md origin field)

P — Predictability

• Planning accuracy: % of planned work completed per cycle?
• Rework rate: % of ALL code rewritten within 21 days?
• Are delivery estimates getting more or less reliable with AI?

E — Flow Efficiency (The Shifting Bottleneck)

• End-to-end cycle time: is it actually decreasing?
• Review wait time: are PRs waiting longer before first review?
• AI review wait ratio: do AI PRs wait longer than human PRs? (Benchmark: 4.6x — LinearB 2026)
• KEY CHECK: Is coding faster but review/testing/deployment slower? If yes, the bottleneck has shifted. AI is generating code the pipeline can't absorb.

X — Developer Experience

• Developer satisfaction with AI tools (survey or conversation)
• Cognitive load: is AI helping or adding complexity?
• Burnout signals: unsustainable pace? Context-switching? Alert fatigue?
• Maps to BVSSH "Happier" dimension

Output

## DORA + APEX Assessment

### DORA Metrics
| Metric | Current | Level | Target | Gap |
|--------|---------|-------|--------|-----|
| Deploy freq | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| Lead time | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| Change fail rate | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| FDRT | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| Reliability | ... | ... | ... | ... |

### APEX Metrics (AI-Era)
| Pillar | Status | Key Signal |
|--------|--------|-----------|
| AI Leverage | ... | AI acceptance rate: ...% |
| Predictability | ... | Planning accuracy: ...%, Rework rate: ...% |
| Flow Efficiency | ... | Cycle time: ..., Review wait: ... |
| Developer Experience | ... | Satisfaction: ..., Burnout: ... |

### Shifting Bottleneck Check
[Is coding faster but review/deployment slower? Yes/No]
[If yes: where is the new bottleneck?]

### DORA Bottleneck
[The metric most constraining overall performance]

### Value Stream Diagnosis (if bottleneck detected)
If DORA shows a bottleneck, map the value stream to identify WHERE in the flow the constraint lives:
- Run `/mycelium:canvas-update` to update `.claude/canvas/value-stream.yml` with current stage timings
- Apply Theory of Constraints Five Focusing Steps (Goldratt): Identify -> Exploit -> Subordinate -> Elevate -> Repeat
- Look for wait times >> process times (a sign of queuing, not capacity, problems)
- Look for high handoff counts (each handoff adds delay and information loss)
- Calculate flow efficiency: process_time / lead_time -- target >25%

### Top 3 Improvements
1. [specific action]
2. [specific action]
3. [specific action]

Part 3: SRE Metrics (Error Budgets)

If SLIs/SLOs defined in .claude/canvas/dora-metrics.yml sre section:

• Review each service's SLI values against SLO targets
• Calculate error budget remaining: (SLO - actual) / (1 - SLO) * 100%
• Healthy (>50%): Ship features. Budget available.
• Warning (<25%): Slow down. Increase testing.
• Depleted (0%): Feature freeze. Reliability takes priority.

Error budgets are the social contract: reliability earns the right to ship faster. Connects to BVSSH Safer.

If NOT defined: "Consider defining SLIs/SLOs to balance velocity with reliability."

Decision Log (MANDATORY)

Always APPEND a ### DORA Assessment or ### Delivery Metrics Assessment entry to .claude/harness/decision-log.md with:

• Each metric assessed, current baseline, target, and classification level
• The identified bottleneck and recommended improvements
• Any shifting bottleneck signals (AI-era: coding faster but review slower) This ensures the delivery metrics gate has auditable evidence.

Canvas Output

Always update .claude/canvas/dora-metrics.yml with:

• DORA metrics, classifications, and capability scores
• APEX section: ai_leverage, predictability, efficiency, developer_experience
• SRE section: SLI/SLO status, error budget remaining
• Measurement history for trend tracking

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Part 4: Content Delivery Assessment (v0.11.0)

For content_course, content_publication, content_media products. Read .claude/canvas/content-metrics.yml.

Producer-Side (how well we make it)

Publication Cadence: How often does content reach the audience?

• Consistent: meeting target cadence
• Improving: cadence accelerating
• Declining: cadence slowing -- investigate bottleneck

Production Lead Time: Idea to published -- how long?

• Identify the bottleneck: writing, editing, recording, review, publishing?

Revision Rate: % of published content requiring significant revision?

• Low (<10%): healthy quality process
• Medium (10-25%): review process may need strengthening
• High (>25%): quality issues -- root cause analysis needed

Completion Rate: % of planned content actually completed on schedule?

Customer-Side (how well it sells and retains)

Time to First Value (TTFV): How quickly does a buyer access and get value after purchase?

• Instant download/access: excellent
• Hours (email delivery, account setup): acceptable
• Days (manual enrollment, approval): investigate bottleneck
• Lower TTFV = lower refund risk.

Engagement & Drop-off: Course completion rate, satisfaction, return rate?

• Where do users abandon? (drop_off_points) If >30% drop at the same point, the content has a structural problem there.

Acquisition: Conversion rate, cost per acquisition, cart abandonment?

• Healthy CVR varies by channel (organic: 2-5%, paid: 1-3%, email: 5-15%)

Revenue Health: Refund rate, CLV, churn (subscriptions), NRR?

• Refund rate is the most honest quality signal. Target: < 5%.
• Refund rate > 10% = product-market fit problem, not just delivery quality.

Canvas Output

Update .claude/canvas/content-metrics.yml with current measurements and last_measured timestamp.

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Part 5: AI Tool Assessment (v0.11.0)

For ai_tool products. Read .claude/canvas/ai-tool-metrics.yml.

Producer-Side (quality & safety)

Eval Frequency: How often are prompts/models evaluated?

• Regular evaluation prevents quality drift

Accuracy & Consistency: Are eval scores stable or improving?

Safety Score: Red-team results -- are adversarial inputs handled?

Bias Assessment: Last assessed when? Any demographic gaps found?

Version Cadence: How often are prompt/model versions shipped?

Regulatory Status: EU AI Act risk classification current?

Customer-Side (usage & retention)

Time to First Value (TTFV): How quickly does a user get useful output after first access?

• Seconds (paste prompt, get result): excellent
• Minutes (configure API key, learn UI): acceptable
• Hours (training required): investigate onboarding friction

Usage & Retention: DAU, task success rate, retention (7-day, 30-day)?

• Task success rate < 70% = prompt/model quality issue
• Drop-off points: where do users abandon? (onboarding, first complex task, pricing wall)

Revenue Health: Refund rate, CLV, churn, NRR?

• Same benchmarks as content: refund rate target < 5%

Canvas Output

Update .claude/canvas/ai-tool-metrics.yml with current measurements and last_measured timestamp.

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Part 6: Service Delivery Assessment (v0.11.0)

For service_offering products. Read .claude/canvas/service-metrics.yml.

Producer-Side (delivery capacity & quality)

Client Throughput: How many clients/engagements per period?

Delivery Lead Time: Engagement start to delivery -- how long?

• Identify bottleneck: client feedback, research, production?

Client Satisfaction: NPS, CSAT, retention rate, referral rate?

Repeatability: Is the delivery workflow documented and templated? Score 1-5.

Customer-Side (acquisition & revenue)

Time to First Value (TTFV): How quickly does a client receive meaningful value after engaging?

• First deliverable or quick win within days: excellent
• Weeks before any tangible output: investigate onboarding process

Acquisition: Conversion rate, cost per acquisition, proposal win rate?

Revenue Health: Refund/dispute rate, CLV, churn (retainers), NRR?

Canvas Output

Update .claude/canvas/service-metrics.yml with current measurements and last_measured timestamp.

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Theory Citations

• Forsgren, Humble, Kim: Accelerate (DORA metrics -- 5 metrics including Reliability and FDRT naming from 2024 report)
• LinearB: APEX Framework (AI-era delivery measurement)
• Beyer, Jones, Petoff, Murphy: Site Reliability Engineering (error budgets, SLIs/SLOs)
• Smart: BVSSH (holistic flow optimization — APEX X maps to Happier)
• Kim: Three Ways (Second Way — amplify feedback loops, detect shifting bottlenecks)