Ops Variance

Ops Variance

Compare actual operating performance against budget, prior year, or underwriting assumptions. Flag material variances with driver explanations.

Skills Invoked

• variance-analysis -- driver decomposition, materiality thresholds, controllable vs. uncontrollable

Required Inputs

• Actual operating results (P&L or T-12)
• At least one comparison basis: budget, prior year actuals, or underwriting assumptions

Optional Inputs

• Property type (affects materiality thresholds)
• Specific line items to focus on

Reads from Manifest

• underwriting/assumptions.json -- underwriting case for variance-to-UW analysis
• operations/budget-*.xlsx -- budget if previously created by /property-budget

Writes to Manifest

• Directory: variance/
• Files: variance-report.xlsx, variance-narrative.md
• Key metrics: revenue_variance_pct, expense_variance_pct, noi_variance_pct, top_variance_driver

Workflow

Step 1: Parse Actuals

Extract revenue and expense line items from provided P&L. Standardize chart of accounts.

Step 2: Align Comparison Basis

Match line items between actuals and comparison (budget/prior year/UW). Flag any items present in one but not the other.

Step 3: Compute Variances

Invoke variance-analysis. Calculations done via scripts/variance.py. Produce dollar and percentage variance for each line item.

Step 4: Decompose Drivers

For material variances (exceeding thresholds defined in skill), identify whether driven by rate, volume, or timing. Classify as controllable vs. uncontrollable.

Step 5: Output

Generate variance Excel and narrative markdown explaining top drivers. Write to deal context and update manifest.

QA Checklist

• Time periods aligned between actuals and comparison
• Chart of accounts mapping documented
• Material variance threshold stated
• Top 5 variance drivers identified with explanations

Escalation Notes

• If chart of accounts doesn't map cleanly, present best-effort mapping and ask user to verify
• If actuals period doesn't match comparison period, flag the mismatch