Reforecast

Reforecast

Update the full-year financial forecast by blending YTD actuals with revised forward projections, incorporating pipeline changes, market shifts, and operational developments.

Skills Invoked

• underwriting-standards (core, projection mode) -- pro forma construction for remaining months

Required Inputs

• YTD actual operating results (P&L through latest month)
• Original budget or underwriting pro forma
• Reporting period (as-of month)

Optional Inputs

• Revised leasing pipeline or rent assumptions
• Updated market data (rent growth, vacancy trends)
• Known capital events (tenant move-outs, renovation completions)
• Debt term changes (refi, rate reset)

Reads from Manifest

• underwriting/proforma.xlsx -- original budget/UW baseline
• underwriting/assumptions.json -- original assumptions to compare against

Writes to Manifest

• Directory: reporting/
• Files: reforecast.xlsx
• Key metrics: reforecast_noi, original_budget_noi, variance_to_budget_pct, ytd_actual_noi, forward_noi_estimate

Workflow

Step 1: Establish YTD Actuals

Parse YTD actual results. Confirm revenue, expenses, and NOI for completed months.

Step 2: Identify Changes to Forward Assumptions

Compare original budget assumptions to current reality:

• Occupancy: known move-outs, signed leases, pipeline
• Rents: achieved rents vs. budgeted market rents
• Expenses: YTD run-rate vs. budget, known one-time items
• Capital: project timing shifts, cost changes

Step 3: Build Forward Projection

Invoke underwriting-standards in projection mode to build remaining-month projections using revised assumptions. Blend YTD actuals + forward projection = full-year reforecast.

CRITICAL: All NOI and cash flow calculations MUST use validated Python functions. Do NOT estimate forward NOI by reasoning through the math.

Step 4: Variance Analysis

Compare reforecast to original budget line by line. Identify and explain material variances. Classify as timing (will self-correct), structural (permanent change), or one-time.

Step 5: Output

Generate reforecast.xlsx with tabs:

1. YTD Actuals (monthly detail)
2. Forward Projection (monthly detail, revised assumptions)
3. Full-Year Reforecast (combined)
4. Variance to Budget (line-by-line with explanations)
5. Assumptions (original vs. revised, with rationale for changes)

Write to reporting directory and update manifest.

QA Checklist

• YTD actuals tie to source P&L
• Forward months use revised (not original) assumptions
• Known events (move-outs, lease-up, capex) reflected in timing
• Reforecast NOI = YTD actual NOI + forward projected NOI
• Variance explanations cover all material line items
• Assumption changes documented with rationale
• Calculations performed by validated code, not LLM reasoning

Escalation Notes

• If YTD actuals are unavailable, cannot produce a reforecast -- ask user for data
• If original budget is unavailable, produce a forward projection without variance analysis and note the gap
• If as-of date is January or February, flag that limited YTD data makes the reforecast heavily assumption-driven