Black Swans

Stress-tests predictions by running premortem analyses to identify failure modes, tail risks, blind spots, and overconfidence. Use for high-confidence (>80%/<20%) forecasts or tail risk identification.

Applies Naval Ravikant's mental models like compound interest, inversion, principal-agent problem to analyze complex situations, counterintuitive ideas, or business/life decisions.

Challenges assumptions, applies mental models like SWOT, first principles, and inversion, and structures reasoning to sharpen decisions and solve complex problems.