economic-outlook

Generate a comprehensive macro economic analysis by calling these tools in parallel:

1. terminalq_get_macro_dashboard() — all key FRED indicators (GDP, CPI, unemployment, Fed funds, yields, claims, payrolls, PCE, etc.)
2. terminalq_get_economic_calendar(14) — upcoming events over the next 2 weeks
3. terminalq_chart_yield_curve() — Treasury yield curve visualization
4. terminalq_get_forex("") — major currency pairs dashboard
5. terminalq_get_quotes_batch("SPY,TLT,GLD,USO,UUP") — real-time asset class proxies (equities, bonds, gold, oil, dollar)

After gathering all data, synthesize following the Economic Brief contract in docs/output-contracts.md:

Business Cycle Position:

• Assess where we are: early expansion, mid expansion, late expansion, contraction
• Use GDP growth rate, unemployment trend, and leading indicators to determine phase
• Compare current readings to historical cycle patterns

Inflation Dashboard:

• CPI trend (headline and core if available)
• PCE (Fed's preferred measure)
• Direction: accelerating, stable, or decelerating
• Implications for Fed policy

Labor Market:

• Unemployment rate and direction
• Initial claims trend (leading indicator)
• Nonfarm payrolls growth
• Assessment: strong, cooling, or deteriorating

Yield Curve Analysis:

• Embed the yield curve chart
• Is it inverted? (2Y-10Y spread)
• What does the shape signal? (Normal = expansion, flat = slowdown, inverted = recession warning)
• How has it changed recently?

Fed Policy Outlook:

• Current Fed funds rate
• Based on inflation and employment data, is the Fed likely to cut, hold, or hike?
• Timeline expectation

Currency & Commodities:

• Dollar strength (UUP proxy)
• Gold trend (risk haven demand)
• Oil direction (inflation input, demand indicator)
• Major forex moves

Portfolio Implications:

• Which asset classes benefit from current macro regime?
• Risk factors to watch
• Positioning suggestions (overweight/underweight equity, bonds, commodities)

Upcoming Catalysts:

• List the most important upcoming economic releases and their expected market impact

Data Freshness: Include a table noting each data source, how recent it is, and confidence level (High/Moderate/Low per docs/output-contracts.md).

Disclaimer: End with the standard disclaimer from docs/output-contracts.md.

Present as a structured macro brief — lead with the big picture, then drill into each area.

Failure Modes

Failure Mode	Signal	Response
FRED API down	terminalq_get_macro_dashboard returns errors	This is critical — most sections depend on FRED data. Note that macro data is unavailable; focus on market proxies (SPY, TLT, GLD) for directional signals
Yield curve fails	terminalq_chart_yield_curve errors	Skip chart; describe yield curve shape from FRED rate data if available
Forex data missing	terminalq_get_forex fails	Skip Currency & Commodities forex section; use UUP quote as dollar proxy
Calendar empty	terminalq_get_economic_calendar returns no events	Note that no upcoming events were found; check if this is a holiday period
Stale FRED data	Indicators show data > 30 days old	Note in Data Freshness that economic data releases on a lag (monthly/quarterly) — this is normal for FRED

When Not to Use

• Do not use for individual stock analysis — use company-research instead
• Do not use for portfolio-specific review — use portfolio-health instead
• Do not use for trade timing — use trade-research which incorporates macro context