From market-sizing
Estimate market size using TAM/SAM/SOM frameworks with top-down and bottom-up approaches, generating evidence-backed reports
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Estimates market size using structured frameworks, combining top-down and bottom-up approaches to produce evidence-backed market sizing reports.
| Level | Definition | Question |
|---|---|---|
| TAM (Total Addressable Market) | Total market demand if 100% share were captured | How big is the universe? |
| SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market) | Portion of TAM reachable with current product/channel | How much can we realistically target? |
| SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market) | Portion of SAM realistically capturable in 1-3 years | How much will we actually win? |
TAM ⊃ SAM ⊃ SOM
TAM: $10B ──── Total global market
└─ SAM: $2B ── Our segment/geography/product fit
└─ SOM: $200M ── Realistic capture (1-3 years)
Start from macro data and narrow down:
Industry market size (analyst reports, government statistics)
× Relevant segment % (geography, vertical, company size)
× Addressable % (product fit, channel reach)
= SAM estimate
Pros: Quick, leverages existing research Cons: Can be overly optimistic, may miss market nuances
Build from unit economics and scale up:
Number of potential customers (identifiable targets)
× Average deal size / revenue per customer
× Expected penetration rate
= SOM estimate
Pros: Grounded in real economics, more defensible Cons: Harder to estimate total potential, may undercount
Estimate based on the value delivered:
Customer's current spend on the problem
× Number of customers with this problem
× Willingness to pay for a better solution
= Market value estimate
Clarify with the user:
| Parameter | Description | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Product/Service | What is being offered? | Data governance platform |
| Target Customer | Who buys? | Enterprise data teams (500+ employees) |
| Geography | Which markets? | North America, then EU |
| Time Horizon | When? | Current (2024) + 5-year projection |
| Problem | What pain point? | Regulatory compliance for data usage |
Gather data via web search:
| Data Type | Sources |
|---|---|
| Market reports | Gartner, IDC, Forrester, Grand View Research, Markets and Markets |
| Industry data | Government statistics, trade associations, census data |
| Company data | SEC filings, annual reports, earnings calls |
| Comparable transactions | M&A deals, funding rounds in the space |
| Customer data | Survey data, industry benchmarks, case studies |
Perform both top-down and bottom-up estimates, then triangulate:
## Top-Down Estimate
- Global [industry] market: $X (Source: [report])
- [Segment] share: Y% → $Z
- [Geography] share: W% → $V
- **TAM**: $V
- Addressable by our product: A% → **SAM**: $U
## Bottom-Up Estimate
- Number of target companies: N (Source: [database])
- Average annual contract value: $ACV
- Expected penetration (3 years): P%
- **SOM**: N × $ACV × P% = $S
## Triangulation
- Top-down SAM: $U
- Bottom-up SOM: $S
- Consistency check: SOM/SAM ratio = X% (typical range: 1-10%)
Test key assumptions:
| Variable | Low Case | Base Case | High Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market growth rate | X% | Y% | Z% |
| Penetration rate | A% | B% | C% |
| ACV | $D | $E | $F |
| Resulting SOM | $G | $H | $I |
# Market Sizing Report: [Topic]
## Executive Summary
- TAM: $X | SAM: $Y | SOM: $Z
- Key insight in 2-3 sentences
## Market Definition
- Product/service scope
- Customer definition
- Geographic scope
## TAM Analysis
- Top-down calculation with sources
- Growth projections (CAGR)
## SAM Analysis
- Segmentation criteria and rationale
- Addressable portion calculation
## SOM Analysis
- Bottom-up calculation
- Competitive share assumptions
- Go-to-market reach assumptions
## Sensitivity Analysis
- Key variable ranges
- Scenario table
## Key Assumptions and Risks
- Listed with confidence level (High/Medium/Low)
- What would invalidate each assumption
## Sources
- All sources with URLs and dates