Skill: velocity-analysis

Skill: velocity-analysis

Purpose

Analyze team velocity trends to produce data-driven delivery forecasts and identify improvement opportunities.

When to Use

• Release planning (how much can we deliver?)
• When stakeholders ask "when will it be done?"
• After a significant velocity drop

Framework: Velocity Analysis

Step 1 — Gather Velocity Data

Ask for: story points completed per sprint for the last 6–8 sprints.

Example input: Sprint 8: 42, Sprint 9: 38, Sprint 10: 45, Sprint 11: 28, Sprint 12: 31, Sprint 13: 35

Step 2 — Calculate Key Metrics

Average Velocity = Sum / Number of sprints Example: (42+38+45+28+31+35) / 6 = 36.5 SP/sprint

Velocity Range = Min to Max Example: 28–45 SP/sprint

Trend: Is velocity increasing, stable, or declining? Plot last 6 sprints mentally:

• If last 3 avg > first 3 avg → improving
• If last 3 avg < first 3 avg → declining
• Otherwise → stable

Step 3 — Remove Outliers

If one sprint is > 2x standard deviation from mean, flag it and explain (team was short-staffed, holiday sprint, etc.)

Step 4 — Delivery Forecast

Given remaining backlog size:

• Optimistic forecast (using max velocity): Backlog / Max = X sprints
• Realistic forecast (using average): Backlog / Average = X sprints
• Conservative forecast (using min): Backlog / Min = X sprints

Scenario	Velocity Used	Sprints Needed	Target Date
Optimistic	45 SP	X	[date]
Realistic	36.5 SP	X	[date]
Conservative	28 SP	X	[date]

Recommendation: Commit to realistic; communicate conservative as risk scenario.

Step 5 — Velocity Drop Investigation

If velocity dropped > 20% for 2+ consecutive sprints:

• Ask about team composition changes
• Check blocker history
• Check scope creep
• Check meeting load

Output Format

1. Velocity summary (avg, range, trend)
2. Forecast table (optimistic / realistic / conservative)
3. Velocity drop flags and investigation prompts
4. Suggested next command: /sprint-health or /delivery-report