initiate

Initiate coverage on the company specified by the user: $ARGUMENTS

Before starting, read data-access.md for data access methods and design-system.md for formatting conventions. Follow the data access detection logic and design system throughout this skill.

This is the capstone skill that produces both a research note and an Excel model from a single comprehensive data gathering pass.

Strategy

Rather than running /research-note and /build-model independently (which would duplicate data gathering), this skill gathers a superset of data once, then renders both outputs.

Phase 1 — Company Setup

Look up the company by ticker using discover_companies. Capture:

• company_id
• latest_calendar_quarter — anchor for all period calculations (see data-access.md Section 1.5)
• latest_fiscal_quarter
• Firm name for report attribution (default: "Daloopa") — see data-access.md Section 4.5

Get market data (see data-access.md Section 2):

• Current price, market cap, shares outstanding, beta
• Trading multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S, P/B)
• Risk-free rate (for DCF)

Phase 2 — Comprehensive Data Gathering

Follow the /build-model skill's Phase 2 data pull (the most comprehensive). Calculate 8-16 quarters backward from latest_calendar_quarter. Pull:

• Full Income Statement (Revenue through EPS, including D&A for EBITDA calc)
• Full Balance Sheet (Cash through Equity)
• Full Cash Flow Statement (OCF, CapEx, FCF, Dividends, Buybacks)
• Segment revenue and operating income breakdowns
• Geographic revenue breakdown
• All company-specific operating KPIs
• All guidance series and corresponding actuals
• Share count, buyback amounts

For every value returned by get_company_fundamentals, record its fundamental_id (the id field). Store each data point as {value, fundamental_id} so citations can be rendered in both outputs.

Phase 3 — Peer Analysis

Identify 5-8 comparable companies. Get peer trading multiples (see data-access.md Section 2). If consensus forward estimates are available (data-access.md Section 3), include NTM estimates. Pull peer fundamentals from Daloopa where available (revenue growth, margins).

Phase 4 — Projections

Build forward estimates using the following methodology:

• Revenue: Start from latest guidance if available, decay to long-term growth rate (5-7%) over projection period
• Gross Margin: Mean-revert to trailing 8-quarter average
• Operating Margin: Mean-revert to trailing 8-quarter average
• CapEx: Project as % of revenue based on trailing 8-quarter average
• D&A: Project as trailing % of PP&E or revenue
• Tax Rate: Use trailing effective rate or statutory rate
• Share Count: Apply trailing buyback rate (QoQ % change)

Project 4-8 quarters forward.

Phase 5 — DCF Valuation

• Calculate WACC using CAPM: Risk-free rate + (Beta × Equity Risk Premium)
  • Equity Risk Premium: 6.5%
  • Cost of Debt: Interest Expense / Total Debt
  • Tax Rate: Effective tax rate from trailing data
  • Debt/Equity weights from latest balance sheet
• 5-year FCF projections:
  • Annualize quarterly projections
  • FCF = Operating Cash Flow - CapEx
• Terminal value using perpetuity growth (2.5-3%)
• Enterprise Value = PV(5Y FCF) + PV(Terminal Value)
• Equity Value = EV - Net Debt
• Implied Share Price = Equity Value / Shares Outstanding
• Sensitivity matrix: WACC (7 values: base ±2% in 0.5% increments) × terminal growth (6 values: 1.5% to 4.0% in 0.5% increments)

Phase 6 — Qualitative Research + News & Catalysts

SEC Filing Research

Search SEC filings comprehensively:

• Risk factors, growth drivers, competitive dynamics
• Management outlook and guidance language
• Capital allocation strategy
• Company-specific strategic topics Extract business description, risks (ranked), investment thesis, catalysts.

News & Catalysts via WebSearch

Run 4 WebSearch queries to gather recent external context:

1. "{TICKER} {company_name} news {year}" — recent headlines and developments
2. "{TICKER} analyst upgrade downgrade price target" — sell-side sentiment shifts
3. "{TICKER} catalysts risks" — forward-looking events and risk factors
4. "{company_name} industry outlook {sector}" — macro and industry trends

Organize results into:

• News Timeline: 6-10 key events from the last 6-12 months in reverse chronological order. Each event: date, headline, 1-sentence impact, sentiment tag (Positive / Negative / Mixed / Upcoming). Format as a numbered list.

• Forward Catalysts: Organized by timeframe:

  • Near-term (0-3 months, HIGH priority): earnings dates, product launches, regulatory decisions
  • Medium-term (3-12 months, MEDIUM priority): strategic milestones, contract renewals, industry events
  • Long-term (1-3 years, LOW priority): secular trends, market expansion, competitive dynamics

• Policy Backdrop: Macro/regulatory context affecting the company. Tariffs, regulation, interest rates, sector-specific policy. Leave empty if not material.

Phase 7 — Cost Structure & Industry Deep Dive

Cost Structure & Margin Analysis

• COGS driver identification: Search for cost-related series ("cost of goods", "materials", "manufacturing", "input cost"). Identify 3-5 biggest cost line items and their trends over 8Q.
• OpEx breakdown: Pull R&D and SG&A separately. Compute R&D % of revenue and SG&A % of revenue trends over 8Q.
• Margin driver analysis: For each major margin (gross, operating, net), identify what's driving expansion or compression — pricing power, cost leverage, mix shift, or one-time items.

Industry-Specific Deep Dive

Determine the company's sector and apply the relevant analysis template:

• Manufacturing/Industrial: Bookings & backlog, book-to-bill ratio, pipeline by geography, capacity utilization
• SaaS/Technology: ARR/MRR trajectory, net retention rate, customer cohort analysis, RPO/deferred revenue trends
• Retail/Consumer: Same-store sales, store count trajectory, traffic vs ticket decomposition, inventory health
• Financials/Banks: NIM trajectory, provision trends, loan growth by category, capital ratios (CET1, TCE)
• Healthcare/Pharma: Pipeline summary (drug, indication, phase, milestone), product revenue breakdown, patent cliff timeline
• Energy: Production volumes, realized pricing vs benchmark, proved reserves, breakeven analysis

Search for relevant series using discover_company_series with sector-appropriate keywords. Pull available data and build the narrative.

Phase 8 — What You Need to Believe

Build falsifiable bull/bear beliefs:

Bull Beliefs (To Go Long)

Write 4-6 numbered beliefs, each with:

• One bold statement (the belief itself)
• 2-3 sentences of evidence with Daloopa citations supporting why this could be true
• Each belief must be falsifiable — testable with observable data within 6 months

Example format: "1. Revenue growth re-accelerates to 15%+ as AI monetization scales. Cloud segment grew $X.Xbn last quarter, up X% YoY, with management noting..."

Bear Beliefs (To Go Short)

Same format — 4-6 numbered falsifiable beliefs with evidence for the downside case.

Valuation Math

For each side:

• Bull target: forward multiple × forward earnings estimate = price target. Show the math.
• Bear target: same structure with bear-case multiple and earnings.

Risk/Reward Assessment

• Compare bull upside % vs bear downside % from current price
• If asymmetry is significant (e.g., 30% upside vs 40% downside), flag it explicitly
• State which side has the better risk/reward and why

Phase 9 — Synthesis + Tensions + Monitoring

Core Synthesis

Write:

• Executive Summary: 3-4 sentence TL;DR covering current state, key thesis, valuation view. Include a clear directional view — is this stock attractive, fairly valued, or overvalued at the current price?
• Variant Perception: What does the market think vs what do you see in the data? Where is the consensus wrong? If you agree with consensus, say that too — but explain what could change.
• Key Findings: Top 3-5 most notable data points or trends — prioritize what changes the investment thesis, not just what's interesting
• Red Flags & Concerns: Any quality-of-earnings issues, sustainability questions, or risks the market may be underpricing

Five Key Tensions

Identify the 5 most critical bull/bear debates for this stock. Each tension is a single line that frames both sides. Alternate between bullish-leaning and bearish-leaning tensions. Every tension must reference a specific data point from the analysis.

Format as a numbered list:

1. "[Bullish factor] vs [Bearish factor]" — cite the specific metric
2. "[Bearish factor] vs [Bullish factor]" — cite the specific metric ...etc.

Monitoring Framework

Build two monitoring lists for ongoing tracking:

Quantitative Monitors — 5-7 specific metrics with explicit thresholds:

• Format: "Metric: current value → bull threshold / bear threshold"
• Example: "Gross Margin: 45.2% → above 46% confirms pricing power / below 43% signals cost pressure"

Qualitative Monitors — 5-7 factors to watch:

• Management tone shifts on earnings calls
• Competitive dynamics (new entrants, pricing pressure)
• Regulatory developments
• Customer concentration changes
• Capital allocation pivots

Phase 10 — Render Both Outputs

Research Note (HTML Report)

Using the HTML Report Template from design-system.md (full CSS inlined in the design system), generate a complete HTML report with the following structure:

1. Cover Section: Company name, ticker, date, current price, market cap, five key tensions
2. Executive Summary: Key metrics table, executive summary, variant perception
3. Investment Thesis & Company Overview: Investment thesis, company description
4. News & Catalysts: News timeline, forward catalysts, policy backdrop
5. Financial Analysis: Revenue trend table, financial metrics table, margin trend table, cost structure analysis, OpEx breakdown, segment breakdown, geographic breakdown, share count history
6. Industry Deep Dive: Sector-specific analysis
7. Guidance Track Record: Guidance table and commentary (if available)
8. What You Need to Believe: Bull beliefs with valuation math, bear beliefs with valuation math, risk/reward assessment
9. Capital Allocation: Commentary on buybacks, dividends, shareholder yield
10. Valuation: DCF summary with sensitivity table, comps commentary with peer multiples
11. Risks: Risk summary from SEC filings
12. Monitoring Framework: Quantitative monitors, qualitative monitors
13. Appendix: Methodology notes

Citation enforcement: Every financial figure from Daloopa must use citation format: [$X.XX million](https://daloopa.com/src/{fundamental_id}). If a number came from get_company_fundamentals, it must have a citation link. No exceptions.

All tables follow the standard financial analysis format: columns = time periods, rows = metrics.

Use the full CSS from design-system.md's HTML Report Template section. The output is a complete, standalone HTML file with all styles inlined.

Excel Model (React Artifact with SheetJS)

Create a React artifact that generates an .xlsx file with these tabs:

Tab 1: Income Statement

• Rows: all income statement line items
• Columns: historical quarters + projected quarters
• Include YoY growth rows beneath key metrics
• Format as currency/percentage per design system

Tab 2: Balance Sheet

• Rows: all balance sheet line items
• Columns: historical quarters + projected quarters
• Include working capital metrics
• Format as currency per design system

Tab 3: Cash Flow

• Rows: all cash flow line items
• Columns: historical quarters + projected quarters
• Include FCF calculation
• Format as currency per design system

Tab 4: Segments

• Rows: segment revenue and operating income
• Columns: historical quarters + projected quarters
• Include segment margin calculation
• Format as currency/percentage per design system

Tab 5: KPIs

• Rows: all company-specific operating KPIs
• Columns: historical quarters + projected quarters
• Include growth rates
• Format per metric type

Tab 6: Projections

• Editable assumption inputs (yellow cells):
  • Revenue growth by quarter
  • Gross margin
  • Operating margin
  • CapEx as % of revenue
  • Tax rate
  • Share buyback rate
• Link to other tabs

Tab 7: DCF

• WACC calculation breakdown
• 5-year FCF projection (annualized)
• Terminal value calculation
• Sensitivity matrix (WACC × terminal growth)
• Implied share price vs current price

Tab 8: Summary

• Company overview (ticker, price, market cap)
• Key metrics summary table
• Valuation summary (DCF range, peer multiples, current valuation)
• Investment highlights

The React artifact should:

1. Import SheetJS: import * as XLSX from 'xlsx'
2. Build workbook with XLSX.utils methods
3. Apply cell styling (bold headers, number formats, colors)
4. Generate downloadable .xlsx file
5. Provide download button in the UI

Output

Tell the user:

• Research Note (HTML): 3-4 sentence executive summary, key findings, valuation range, note that they can save the HTML and open it in any browser
• Excel Model: Summary of model structure (8 tabs), key model outputs:
  • Latest quarterly revenue: $X.XX billion
  • Projected revenue growth: X.X%
  • DCF implied value: $X.XX (X.X% upside/downside)
  • Peer-implied range: $X.XX - $X.XX
• Note that yellow cells in the Projections tab are editable inputs
• Instructions: Click the download button to save {TICKER}_model.xlsx

Present both the HTML report and the React artifact directly in your response.

All financial figures must use Daloopa citation format: $X.XX million