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name: scenario-planning description: Financial scenario planning — base, upside, downside, stress
Base Case (most likely outcome, 50-60% probability):
Upside Case (favorable outcome, 15-25% probability):
Downside Case (adverse but plausible outcome, 15-25% probability):
Stress Case (severe but possible outcome, 5-10% probability):
Scenarios should be built by modifying specific operational drivers, not by applying blanket percentage adjustments to the P&L.
Step 1: Identify the 10-15 drivers that most impact financial outcomes
Revenue Drivers:
- New customer acquisition rate
- Customer retention / churn rate
- Average revenue per customer (ARPU)
- Pricing power / ASP changes
- Market growth rate
- Win rate on pipeline
Cost Drivers:
- Headcount growth / hiring pace
- Wage inflation / merit increases
- Input cost inflation (materials, energy)
- Discretionary spend levels (marketing, T&E, consulting)
- FX rates (for multi-currency businesses)
Step 2: Define driver values for each scenario
Driver | Base | Upside | Downside | Stress
New logos/quarter | 15 | 20 | 10 | 5
Monthly churn rate | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.5%
ARPU | $500 | $550 | $475 | $450
Hiring (net adds) | 25 | 35 | 15 | -10
COGS inflation | 3% | 2% | 5% | 8%
Step 3: Run each driver set through the financial model to generate scenario P&L, balance sheet, and cash flow.
Calculate an expected (probability-weighted) outcome for key metrics:
Expected EBITDA = P(Base) × EBITDA_Base
+ P(Upside) × EBITDA_Upside
+ P(Downside) × EBITDA_Downside
+ P(Stress) × EBITDA_Stress
Example:
= 0.55 × $50M + 0.20 × $65M + 0.20 × $35M + 0.05 × $15M
= $27.5M + $13.0M + $7.0M + $0.75M
= $48.25M
Use probability-weighted outcomes for:
Two-dimensional tables isolating the impact of two key drivers:
=== EBITDA SENSITIVITY: Revenue Growth × Gross Margin ===
EBITDA ($M) | GM = 58% | GM = 60% | GM = 62% | GM = 64%
Rev Growth = 0% | $__ | $__ | $__ | $__
Rev Growth = 5% | $__ | $__ | $__ | $__
Rev Growth = 10% | $__ | $__ | $__ | $__
Rev Growth = 15% | $__ | $__ | $__ | $__
Build sensitivity tables for the most critical driver pairs:
=== SCENARIO COMPARISON ===
Metric | Stress | Downside | Base | Upside
Revenue ($M) | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____
Revenue Growth | ____% | ____% | ____% | ____%
Gross Margin | ____% | ____% | ____% | ____%
EBITDA ($M) | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____
EBITDA Margin | ____% | ____% | ____% | ____%
Net Income ($M) | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____
Free Cash Flow ($M) | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____
Net Debt / EBITDA | ___x | ___x | ___x | ___x
Cash Runway (months)| ___ | ___ | ___ | ___
Covenant Headroom | ____% | ____% | ____% | ____%
Probability | 5-10% | 15-25% | 50-60% | 15-25%
Each scenario needs a coherent narrative — the drivers should tell a consistent story.
Example narratives:
Upside: "Accelerated digital transformation drives demand pull-forward.
Enterprise segment grows 25% as large deals close faster.
Gross margins expand 200bp from favorable mix shift toward high-margin products.
Headcount scales efficiently due to productivity improvements."
Downside: "Economic uncertainty causes enterprise customers to delay purchasing decisions.
SMB churn increases as smaller customers cut discretionary spend.
Wage inflation persists at 5%, compressing margins.
Two planned product launches slip by one quarter."
Stress: "Recession triggers a 20% decline in new business.
Largest customer (8% of revenue) announces vendor consolidation.
Credit markets tighten, refinancing costs increase 200bp.
Workforce reduction of 15% required to preserve cash."
=== DECISION TRIGGER FRAMEWORK ===
Metric | Green | Yellow | Red | Action
Quarterly revenue | > 95% of plan | 90-95% of plan | < 90% of plan | [Hiring pause]
Monthly cash burn | < $__M | $__M - $__M | > $__M | [Cost reduction]
Net retention rate | > 110% | 100-110% | < 100% | [CS intervention]
Pipeline coverage ratio | > 3.0x | 2.0-3.0x | < 2.0x | [Lead gen surge]
Covenant ratio | > 30% headroom | 15-30% headroom| < 15% headroom | [Lender dialogue]
Cash runway | > 18 months | 12-18 months | < 12 months | [Fundraise/cut]
Pre-approved contingency actions:
=== SCENARIO PLANNING SUMMARY ===
Company: [Name]
Purpose: [Decision being supported]
Date: [Date]
--- Scenario Definitions ---
Base Case: [2-sentence narrative]
Upside Case: [2-sentence narrative]
Downside Case: [2-sentence narrative]
Stress Case: [2-sentence narrative]
--- Key Driver Assumptions ---
[Driver table as shown above]
--- Financial Outcomes ---
[Scenario comparison dashboard as shown above]
--- Probability-Weighted Expected Outcome ---
Expected Revenue: $____M
Expected EBITDA: $____M
Expected Free Cash Flow: $____M
--- Decision Triggers and Contingency Plans ---
[Decision trigger framework as shown above]
--- Recommendation ---
[Specific recommendation based on scenario analysis]
[Actions to take now regardless of scenario]
[Contingency actions to prepare but not yet execute]
Before finalizing scenario analysis, verify: